FG: Mafia 28 - Crimson tide

[Kassiopeia]

Only three people left! Been a while since we had that.

[Snowflake]

BK, paddy and me. Hmmm ... And we had thought that one of BK and me would be killed. Paddy is playing really well. I almost think that it couldn't be him now. Because if it were him he wouldn't have lefted both BK and I alive ...

[joncha]

The killer is so obvious. If you don't get him now, you deserve your fate.

[Snowflake]

He is? I'm gonna read the story now. Maybe that will enlighten me.

[Snowflake]

Well it is also possible that BK confessed to reis and later killed him?

[rah]

Analysis from the grave.

Point 1
when it gets down to three, the mafia will usually not make the first vote, because if another person votes not for them, they auto win, and if they vote the right mafia, the mafia can vote for the first voter and hope the third person guesses wrong. If they wait to vote last, it may already be decided against them, so they usually hover near the end.
If they vote first, they may tip their hand.
SO based on that, Snowflake has been around and not voted. hmmmm

Point 2.
current post count
User Posts
Ljube-ljcvetko 50
Nikolai 45
Snowflake 37
Kassiopeia 28
Ben Kenobi 25
joncha 20
Paddy the Scot 19
Tuberski 19
Theben 17
DrSpike 16
rah 16
Lord Nuclear 13
Hercules 12
Skanky Burns 11
Whoha 10
Spaced Cowboy 10
Sparrowhawk 10
DarkCloud 9
reismark 9
Adagio 8
Dauphin 7
Jonny 6
duke o' york 6
FlameFlash 2
Pave 2
Jamski 1
Smiley 1
gjramsey 1

The top poster is usually the mod.
If not caught the next highest person alive is usually the mafia. Unless they're a very experienced mafia and is aware of this stat and play below the radar. (this may sometimes be distorted if Spike is spamming)

SO I would bet snowflake.

This is not based at all on the story. So take what you will from this.

[Kassiopeia]

My money is on Paddy.

[Snowflake]

rah rah rah.

Obviously the mafia also knows about what you said, the piece about not voting first. If not, now they know.

I actually learned this with painful experience when I was truely a mafia (at MZO) when I actually voted the first. And my not voting obviously is an attempt to counter that motivation of not voting first by the mafia, if you don't count the fact that I'm still not sure who is the mafia.

If we go by the story, obviously it is Paddy. But if it was him he would have killed BK or me. If it was BK on the other hand, he wouldn't kill himself of course, and he may want to leave me alive because he knew I was pretty convinced that he was not the mafia. Also he was on when I got on and saw the story, and he hurried off without posting in this thread ...

Now paddy and BK are both experienced enough to know what you know, keep a low profile and such. If I were the mafia do you think I would be this eager to jump out everytime?

[Snowflake]

And BK is on again, still not posting ...

On the other hand, Paddy has his online status hidden, I think, which says something if you ask me.

Come on you guys, convince me you are innocent.

[Theben]

Aside from the fact that there are 2 huge frickin' clues in the last update. But since you dorks killed me 1st I think I'll let you figure it out.

[Hercules]

Originally posted by Theben
Aside from the fact that there are 2 huge frickin' clues in the last update. But since you dorks killed me 1st I think I'll let you figure it out.

I agree there are two huge clues in the last update.
I 've kept quiet but if Rah feels he can contribute to the decision, so can I.

[reismark]

It's Paddy, I'm almost sure of it. I wanted to vote for him last time, but I had to vote duke to give myself a chance to live. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if Paddy executed me specifically to psych Ben & Snow out.

there can be only one

Anybody here watch Highlander?

[Ben Kenobi]

*sigh*

Read my posts here on Poly, and you'll see why I haven't seen this until now.

More pressing priorities than Mafia, HH.

Paddy

[DarkCloud]

there can be only one.

...Sounds religious to me...

but then again to a dead person, everything would have to be religious...

[Snowflake]

If the shell was found near the door, does it mean that the person was shooting him from back the room? If that is the case, it has to be BK. Since BK already told reis who is the mafia, so reis will not allow the real mafia to enter his room, unless he is already in the room.

Also, after the shot only Paddy and I went to the murder scene. Why didn't BK come?

Are these the two clues?