NFL 2018 Season Thread

[Zopperoni]

The folks at Michigan were probably going "Oh good, this will stop people from talking about our fourth-down mess-up now..."

[rah]

I love the latest coming out of indy, that the center was a sub and hadn't really practiced the play so he didn't know about the "SECOND" option.

And why is the punter on the radio talking about the intent of the play?

[Koyaanisqatsi]

As I understand it, Indy has a storied history with liquored-up idiot kickers. Maybe it's spreading?

[Al B. Sure!]

How did Kaepernick get so bad?

[Donegeal]

He was never a very good passer. He did the read option VERY well for one season, then defenses caught up. Now he has to rely on those suspect QB skills.

[SlowwHand]

Like throwing downfield.

[Al B. Sure!]

I have a different recollection of Kaepernick being a downfield thrower:

On passes that traveled at least 15 yards downfield in 2012 and 2013, Kaepernick posted a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 12-to-6 and a Total QBR of 94.5, which was the seventh-best rate in the NFL.

Wasn't a small sample either as indicated by this chart from mid way through the 2013 season:

[-Jrabbit]

What that graph clearly shows is that "deep pass rate" is not correlated to overall QB performance.

[rah]

Yeah, most of the better quarterbacks were all in the average range for that stat.

[Al B. Sure!]

The two stats I posted taken together indicate Kaepernick was a good downfield passer. He threw downfield more than most QBs and unlike say Geno Smith who is also high on that chart, Kaepernick was actually very effective at doing so, as referenced by my first post.

In other words, in his first two seasons as a starter, he was 3rd in % of his passes going deep and 7th in QBR on those deep passes.

That jives with my recollection of Kaepernick as a very effective downfield thrower. I was in Romania last year so missed the revision of his talent narrative from the next great QB to the tired old he's mobile so he can't pass we've heard so often for other QB's.

So I don't buy the explanations offered in this thread. It's just cliches. We know Kaepernick was once very good at throwing deep, completes over 60% of his passes, and formerly had a passer rating in the mid-90's.

Did he lose his passing skills?

I don't think it's him. Kaepernick is on pace to be sacked 57 times this year. He was sacked 52 times last year after only 55 times in his first two seasons combined.

[rah]

I was listening on the radio this morning and they were saying that Brady led the team in rushing and even rushed for a touchdown.
I was thinking how extraordinary that was until I saw that he only rushed for 15 yards.

Talk about putting the entire team on your shoulders and winning.

[Zopperoni]

The Patriots never bothered running the ball. White had two carries for four yards and Blount never even got beyond the LoS with three carries for minus three yards.

It was quite clever to go all-pass and spread the Jets defense out to see who covered who, and then pick on the weak link.

What that graph clearly shows is that "deep pass rate" is not correlated to overall QB performance.

Most of the top QBs don't throw it deep, because they want to get the ball out of their hands quickly.

[SlowwHand]

West Coast offense, with 3 step drops, as
opposed to traditional 7 step drop backs and 3+ seconds.

[rah]

The Patriots never bothered running the ball. White had two carries for four yards and Blount never even got beyond the LoS with three carries for minus three yards.

Some might say that they gave up running the ball after lack of success doing it. But yeah, you're probably right.

[Zopperoni]

West Coast offense, with 3 step drops, as
opposed to traditional 7 step drop backs and 3+ seconds.

The offensive system definitely plays a role in getting the ball out quickly.

When it comes to Kaepernick (and others), I think it also has to do with pre-snap reads.

When Kaepernick came out of college, he was a "one-read guy". He'd take the snap, read one WR and throw it to that guy when he was open. If the WR wasn't open, he'd take off and run with the ball.

Harbaugh and Roman gave him an offense in which he could continue to play within his comfort zone, but he's still in a learning process. He's taking more sacks because it's just taking him too long to go through his progression. The other side is that the WRs aren't getting separation or the O-Line isn't holding up either, but much of the improvement will be in pre-snap recognition.

I'd like to believe that he will get better. Cam Newton was a similar type of guy (and also still a work in progress), but plays a bit better every year.

If there's anything they can learn from a top QB like Brady is that, even after 15+ seasons, there's always something they can get better at.