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Interesting breakdown of the top ten teams, showing the FBS teams they've beaten that have at least 6 wins and are thus now bowl-eligible and the teams they have left to play that are already bowl-eligible (EDIT: adjusting w/ CFP rankings, as those are the only ones that matter):
1. Mississippi State (8-0)
2. Florida State (8-0)
3. Auburn (7-1)
4. Oregon (8-1)
5. Alabama (7-1)
6. TCU (7-1)
7. Kansas State (7-1)
8. Michigan State (7-1)
9. Arizona State
10. Notre Dame (7-1)
The CFP criteria have been stated to include:
One of the reasons I don't think there will be 2 SEC teams in the end is because of "Championships won." Mississippi State will play Bama, and Bama will play Auburn. I think it's unlikely Bama loses both of those games, and I think it's highly likely they'll beat Auburn this year, as Saban doesn't lose to the same team twice in a row. The SEC champ gets in, sure, but not the runner-up. I think it's very likely 4 of the Power 5 champs will compose the playoff teams. The ACC and SEC champs are likely in, assuming FSU wins out over the rest of its schedule (probable). A one-loss Pac-12 champ will also be in for sure if it's Oregon (which will be #4 this week in the CFP rankings) or likely be in if it's ASU (winning out would entail the Sun Devils beating ranked Notre Dame, Arizona and Oregon, which would be a mighty impressive run).
The 4th slot is more complicated. If Michigan State wins out, they would have beaten a resurgent Ohio State squad and the B1G West champ, who will almost certainly be ranked at that point as well. So this weekend's Spartan-Buckeye game could be the biggest deciding factor on the conference's championship hopes: if Ohio State wins, the B1G is out, simple as that. Meanwhile in the Big 12, its highest-ranked team, TCU, only has one quality opponent left in Kansas State, but a victory would certainly be significant. The problem is, if Baylor wins out, they win the Big 12 thanks to the head-head over TCU, and since the CFP committee wants conference champs, the Horned Frogs would be out even if they also ran the table. The lack of a conference championship game hurts the Big 12's prospects, as the champ will have one less opportunity to impress the CFP committee than the other Power 5 conferences have. I think at this point the best chance for the Big 12 to make it is for Kansas State to win out. Beating TCU and Baylor in the run up to the end of the regular season would probably impress the committee more than any other outcome. [EDIT: With the latest CFP rankings, Baylor is not even in the top ten. The committee really isn't impressed with Baylor for some reason, which further reinforces my belief that KSU is the best chance for the Big 12 to make the playoff).
As for quality of wins, here are the wins over top current CFP top 10 teams this season so far among the current CFP top ten:
#1 Mississippi State over #3 Auburn
#3 Auburn over #7 Kansas State
#4 Oregon over #8 Michigan State
#2 Florida State over #10 Notre Dame
Lastly, strength of schedule... hard to determine this until the season is over. Here are the Sagarin ratings of SoS as of this week for the AP top ten:
Auburn (2)
Alabama (6)
Mississippi State (17)
Oregon (29)
TCU (39)
Florida State (40)
Kansas State (45)
Notre Dame (49)
Michigan State (58)
Baylor (73)
Of course, this is going to change--perhaps significantly--as the season plays out.
Anyway, here are Phil Steele's current projections for the big Jan. 1 bowl games:
Citrus Bowl: Wisconsin v. Georgia
Outback Bowl: Nebraska v. Missouri
Cotton Bowl: TCU v. Ole Miss
Rose Bowl (semifinal): Alabama v. Oregon
Sugar Bowl (semifinal): Florida State v. Michigan State
He's got Alabama v. Florida State in the final. I think that's unlikely. My current hunch is:
Rose Bowl: #2 Florida State v. #3 Oregon
Sugar Bowl: #1 Mississippi State v. #4 Michigan State
Final: Mississippi State v. Oregon. Although I'd love to see the SEC excluded from the title game for once...
1. Mississippi State (8-0)
- Beaten:
- #16 LSU (7-2)
- #3 Auburn (7-1)
- Texas A&M (6-3)
- To Play:
- #5 Alabama (7-1)
- #11 Ole Miss (7-2)
- Possible SEC Championship game against SEC East champ
2. Florida State (8-0)
- Beaten:
- #21 Clemson (6-2)
- #10 Notre Dame (7-1)
- Louisville (6-3)
- To Play:
- Miami (6-3)
- Boston College (6-3)
- Clinched ACC Championship game against ACC Coastal champ
3. Auburn (7-1)
- Beaten:
- #7 Kansas State (7-1)
- LA Tech (6-3)
- #16 LSU (7-2)
- #11 Ole Miss (6-2)
- To Play:
- Texas A&M (6-3)
- #20 Georgia (6-2)
- #5 Alabama (7-1)
- Possible SEC Championship game against SEC East champ
4. Oregon (8-1)
- Beaten:
- #8 Michigan State (7-1)
- #18 UCLA (7-2)
- Washington (6-3)
- To Play:
- #17 Utah (6-2)
- Clinched Pac 12 Championship game against Pac 12 South champ
5. Alabama (7-1)
- Beaten:
- #23 West Virginia (6-3)
- Texas A&M (6-3)
- To Play:
- #1 Mississippi State (8-0)
- #3 Auburn (7-1)
- Possible SEC Championship game against SEC East champ
6. TCU (7-1)
- Beaten:
- Minnesota (6-2)
- #15 Oklahoma (6-2)
- #23 West Virginia (6-3)
- To Play:
- #7 Kansas State (7-1)
7. Kansas State (7-1)
- Beaten:
- #15 Oklahoma (6-2)
- To Play:
- #6 TCU (7-1)
- #23 West Virginia (6-3)
- #12 Baylor (7-1)
8. Michigan State (7-1)
- Beaten:
- #13 Nebraska (8-1)
- To Play:
- #14 Ohio State (7-1)
- Maryland (6-3)
- Possible Big 10 Championship game against Big 10 West champ
9. Arizona State
- Beaten:
- #18 UCLA (6-2)
- USC (6-3)
- Washington (6-3)
- #17 Utah (6-2)
- To Play:
- #10 Notre Dame (7-1)
- #19 Arizona (6-2)
- Possible Pac 12 Championship game against Pac 12 North champ #4 Oregon
10. Notre Dame (7-1)
- Beaten:
- Haven't beaten any teams that have 6 wins as of yet
- To Play:
- #9 Arizona State (7-1)
- Louisville (6-3)
- USC (6-3)
The CFP criteria have been stated to include:
- Championships won
- Comparison of results against common opponents
- Head-to-Head results/quality of wins
- Strength of schedule
One of the reasons I don't think there will be 2 SEC teams in the end is because of "Championships won." Mississippi State will play Bama, and Bama will play Auburn. I think it's unlikely Bama loses both of those games, and I think it's highly likely they'll beat Auburn this year, as Saban doesn't lose to the same team twice in a row. The SEC champ gets in, sure, but not the runner-up. I think it's very likely 4 of the Power 5 champs will compose the playoff teams. The ACC and SEC champs are likely in, assuming FSU wins out over the rest of its schedule (probable). A one-loss Pac-12 champ will also be in for sure if it's Oregon (which will be #4 this week in the CFP rankings) or likely be in if it's ASU (winning out would entail the Sun Devils beating ranked Notre Dame, Arizona and Oregon, which would be a mighty impressive run).
The 4th slot is more complicated. If Michigan State wins out, they would have beaten a resurgent Ohio State squad and the B1G West champ, who will almost certainly be ranked at that point as well. So this weekend's Spartan-Buckeye game could be the biggest deciding factor on the conference's championship hopes: if Ohio State wins, the B1G is out, simple as that. Meanwhile in the Big 12, its highest-ranked team, TCU, only has one quality opponent left in Kansas State, but a victory would certainly be significant. The problem is, if Baylor wins out, they win the Big 12 thanks to the head-head over TCU, and since the CFP committee wants conference champs, the Horned Frogs would be out even if they also ran the table. The lack of a conference championship game hurts the Big 12's prospects, as the champ will have one less opportunity to impress the CFP committee than the other Power 5 conferences have. I think at this point the best chance for the Big 12 to make it is for Kansas State to win out. Beating TCU and Baylor in the run up to the end of the regular season would probably impress the committee more than any other outcome. [EDIT: With the latest CFP rankings, Baylor is not even in the top ten. The committee really isn't impressed with Baylor for some reason, which further reinforces my belief that KSU is the best chance for the Big 12 to make the playoff).
As for quality of wins, here are the wins over top current CFP top 10 teams this season so far among the current CFP top ten:
#1 Mississippi State over #3 Auburn
#3 Auburn over #7 Kansas State
#4 Oregon over #8 Michigan State
#2 Florida State over #10 Notre Dame
Lastly, strength of schedule... hard to determine this until the season is over. Here are the Sagarin ratings of SoS as of this week for the AP top ten:
Auburn (2)
Alabama (6)
Mississippi State (17)
Oregon (29)
TCU (39)
Florida State (40)
Kansas State (45)
Notre Dame (49)
Michigan State (58)
Baylor (73)
Of course, this is going to change--perhaps significantly--as the season plays out.
Anyway, here are Phil Steele's current projections for the big Jan. 1 bowl games:
Citrus Bowl: Wisconsin v. Georgia
Outback Bowl: Nebraska v. Missouri
Cotton Bowl: TCU v. Ole Miss
Rose Bowl (semifinal): Alabama v. Oregon
Sugar Bowl (semifinal): Florida State v. Michigan State
He's got Alabama v. Florida State in the final. I think that's unlikely. My current hunch is:
Rose Bowl: #2 Florida State v. #3 Oregon
Sugar Bowl: #1 Mississippi State v. #4 Michigan State
Final: Mississippi State v. Oregon. Although I'd love to see the SEC excluded from the title game for once...
Mississippi State
Florida State
Auburn
Oregon
Alabama
TCU
Kansas State
Michigan State
Arizona State
Notre Dame
Mississippi
Baylor
Nebraska
Ohio State
Oklahoma
LSU
Utah
UCLA
Arizona
Georgia
Clemson
Duke
West Virginia
Georgia Tech
Wisconsin
.
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