NFL 2013 Season Thread

[Al B. Sure!]

Ben's yadda yadda about the Bears 2012 collapse.

Rather than going for the narrative that Cutler sucks (he was doing pretty well during the 7-1 run), maybe some other things have more to do with the Bears collapse?

Like that during their 7-1 run, their opponents were a combined 56-71-1 (.438) while during their 3-5 struggle, opponents were an incredible combined 74-53-1 (.578)!

Hell, look at their opponents. Texans. Playoff team. 49ers. Playoff team. Vikings twice. Playoff team twice. Seahawks. Playoff team. Packers. Playoff team. No wonder they lost to those teams!

And they were close losses. Cutler went down with a concussion down just 10-3 to the Texans. He didn't even play in their 32-7 whooping by the 49ers. Came back and beat the Vikes. Lost a 23-17 OT game to the Seahawks. Lost a 21-14 game to the Vikes. Lost 21-13 to the Packers. Then beat the Cardinals and Lions to close out the year.

Losing single score games to playoff teams happens even if your team and QB are good. The Bears had one of the hardest second half schedules ever and they lost close games to 5 playoff teams, including two divisional rivals.

Here's a more compelling narrative:

The 7-1 start for the Bears was inflated by some seriously weak opposition which allowed the Bears to dominate on both sides of the ball, but especially with a fluky best defense in recent memory at generating turnovers and taking them for scores (happens when you go against Luck in his first start, Bradford, Romo, Gabbert, and Hasselbeck. Fine QB competition there!). The Bears were a good team but not 7-1 good.

Then they had one of the toughest 8 game stretches in recent memory with 6 straight matchups against playoff teams (hell, that 6 game stretch, opponents were 65-30-1 [.677!!!]). In the games that Cutler played even 1 down (so not the 49ers game), the Bears had a 132-125 point differential. In losses, a 50-78 differential or 7 points a game. The Bears were better than 3-5 but couldn't close games against strong competition.

[Ben Kenobi]

Hell, look at their opponents. Texans. Playoff team. 49ers. Playoff team. Vikings twice. Playoff team twice. Seahawks. Playoff team. Packers. Playoff team. No wonder they lost to those teams!

So you're saying the Bears weren't a playoff calibre squad?

Looking at the numbers - the biggest dropoff of all the individual sectors of the Bears - wasn't the D (which finished 3rd for the year), or the run game (solid throughout the year). It was Cutler. His numbers were horrible. Sure, they had a tough stretch, but they only needed to win 2 games in that stretch to make the playoffs. 2-4 isn't unreasonable when you play the crappy Vikings (only a playoff team because the Bears didn't get in) twice, and you'd just need one win out of the other 5.

The Bears were better than 3-5 but couldn't close games against strong competition.

The Vikings weren't 'strong competition'. Ponder had 92 yards, in a win. They were embarrassed in the playoffs. All they needed to do was stuff 10 guys in the box to contain AP and dare Ponder to throw.

[Ben Kenobi]

I must admit I'm pretty worried about playing the Chargers (though heartened by the fact that their only loss in their last six was against Cincy) and am hoping that the good Dalton shows up as well as it being pretty ****ing cold on the banks of the Ohio...

Yeah, I'd much rather we were playing the Colts at Lucas Oil. Cincy matches up well with us - the D is as strong as our O, and your O is better than our 29th ranked D or whatever.

Rematch 32 years in the making

That was a heartbreaker. You denied Coryell a shot at a Superbowl. Hopefully we'll see a decent game. Good luck.

Interestingly, my all-time favourite Bengals player featured in that game - playing for the Chargers

There was a Charger who contributed to the Bengals? I can't recall anyone. Is it James Brooks?

[Al B. Sure!]

Yep. Schaub's quite underrated. Someone's getting a good deal now that Kubiak is gone and Houston has imploded.

Pretty sure Schaub will not be a day 1 starter anywhere in the league

He's a QB son. We're evaluating QBs.

So those 28 touchdowns in only 3 seasons that Cam ran in instead of passing didn't count. They gave the Panthers 0 points? Yeah makes a lot of sense.

Rushing yardage, taking sacks, fumbles. None of that matters to an evaluation of a QB!

You do realize that if a QB simply took a sack every time he was pressured or no one was open instead of throwing an incompletion, he would improve his passer rating (which does not hit QB's on sacks but dings them on incompletions) but he would be catastrophically damaging a team's chance at winning games. You do know this right?

And you do know that a TD is 6 points whether a QB runs it in himself or throws it, right? And you do know that 10 yards from the QB tucking and running will still get you a first down and move you closer to the opposing endzone, right?

It's not my list. Its the active list of QBs ranked by career passer rating. I'm evaluating Cutler's ability as a passer. His ranking doesn't change too much, and I selected this one because it was generally more fair to Cutler.

Umm. It's 26 QB's long but the top half is 9 QB's and the bottom half has 17 QB's.

Kindergarten math. Half of something means you divide by 2; in other words, you have two new groups each of equal size that when combined equal the original total. Half of 26 is 13. The top half should include 13 QB's and the bottom should have 13 as well. That's what half means.

Well then, his agent should change this. He's more productive than Stafford.

Perhaps he needs a new agent.

Do you even know what a Collective Bargaining Agreement is? Were you not around during the player's strike?

I'm simply stating that given his overall career value - that he has performed at a similar level. Perhaps the fact that his contract is so reasonable is the competitive advantage that the Bengals gain over non-playoff teams like the Bears and Lions.

Duh. And that's why Dalton, Newton, Wilson, and Luck are leading playoff teams and Bradford and Stafford are not.

I don't use ESPN's system. I use the regular Passer Rating.

At least ESPN's system factors in strength of opponent, sacks, rushing, etc. etc. It's not perfect and it's just as arbitrary as the passer rating but it's more complete than just looking at cmps, atts, yardage, passing tds, and ints.

[Al B. Sure!]

The Vikings weren't 'strong competition'. Ponder had 92 yards, in a win. They were embarrassed in the playoffs. All they needed to do was stuff 10 guys in the box to contain AP and dare Ponder to throw.

You should be a defensive coordinator! I can't believe that no NFL coach thought of this when Adrian Peterson nearly broke the single season rushing record with 2097 yards! Gee, put everyone in the box to contain AP and let Ponder beat you deep. You should write a blog.

[Ben Kenobi]

Pretty sure Schaub will not be a day 1 starter anywhere in the league

He's better than a lot of starters out there, including Ponder. Dunno why the Vikings wouldn't take a flyer on him - they'd get precisely the QB they need to go with AP. Schaub could really put the hurt on teams like the Bears, Lions and Green Bay.

So those 28 touchdowns in only 3 seasons that Cam ran in instead of passing didn't count.

In an evaluation of Cutler's passing abilities? No, they do not. Cam's not the topic under discussion here. Cutler is.

You do realize that if a QB simply took a sack every time he was pressured or no one was open instead of throwing an incompletion, he would improve his passer rating (which does not hit QB's on sacks but dings them on incompletions) but he would be catastrophically damaging a team's chance at winning games.

Cutler's sack rate and yards lossed isn't at all exceptional. It's not an outlier that would warrant further consideration.

And you do know that a TD is 6 points whether a QB runs it in himself or throws it, right? And you do know that 10 yards from the QB tucking and running will still get you a first down and move you closer to the opposing endzone, right?

Cam's not the topic here - Cutler is, and we're assessing his passing abilities. I'm arguing that Cam - passing alone, is a superior QB to Cutler, and significantly so. I'm not sure what you're trying to argue here.

It's 26 QB's long but the top half is 9 QB's and the bottom half has 17 QB's.

There's three tiers based on standard deviations. The top 6, the middle 3 and the rest of the pack.

Kindergarten math. Half of something means you divide by 2; in other words, you have two new groups each of equal size that when combined equal the original total. Half of 26 is 13. The top half should include 13 QB's and the bottom should have 13 as well. That's what half means.

I'm not quite sure why I would care about this when I have standard deviations that indicate statistically significant tiers.

Do you even know what a Collective Bargaining Agreement is? Were you not around during the player's strike?

How does it change the fact that Dalton is in the playoffs in part because of his performance relative to his cap hit?

Duh. And that's why Dalton, Newton, Wilson, and Luck are leading playoff teams and Bradford and Stafford are not.

And also why Cutler is also sitting at home. That's my point here. Cutler simply doesn't provide sufficent performance to warrant his present salary prior to this extension.

At least ESPN's system factors in strength of opponent

Don't really care. Passer rating does the job well enough for my purposes here - comparing Cutler's performance relative to the current cohort of NFl starting QBs. I could have chosen other measures - Cutler's career ranks are pretty stable regardless as to what stat you use. That's my point. There's nothing to indicate that he's an exceptional and elite NFL QB.

It's not perfect and it's just as arbitrary as the passer rating but it's more complete than just looking at cmps, atts, yardage, passing tds, and ints.

I don't see any reason why Passer Rating undersells Cutler vs other QBs.

[Donegeal]

Jesus Christ people! Put him on ignore!

[Al B. Sure!]

Cutler was always a weird QB to pin down for me. I think I mentioned last year when I had a discussion at my job about where Cutler ranks among QB's and we couldn't come up with a consensus. It was really hard to place him.

He's a guy with okay stats and when you watch him play, he looks alright but nothing special.

But the Bears would win games and look really good with him in the lineup but when he would get hurt and they trotted out Caleb Hanie, Jason Campbell, or Todd Collins out there, wow. The way they struggled and the way the Bears looked like the worst team in football without Cutler made you wonder if Cutler was really an elite talent who carried the Bears on his back.

But he sure didn't look like an elite talent. The best I could come up with was to look at the terrible Bears offensive line and the dearth of receiving weapons before Marshall (Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, and Devin Aromashodu as a WR corps? ) and determine that Cutler, while not an elite QB, was a little better than he appeared and knew how to make things work without the best supporting cast. His mobility bought him time to make up for the terrible o-line and to get the ball to those terrible WR's. It kind of made sense because when he was on a team with a stronger supporting offensive cast (Denver), he had a 4500yd 27TD (rushing and passing) season and looked like the next great QB.

The interesting thing is, and this applies to Ben as well, Cutler's 2013 season actually looks like his final year in Denver on a per play basis.

2013 Cutler vs. 2008 Cutler
32 attempts/game vs 38.5
63.1% cmp% vs 62.3%
7.4 Y/A vs 7.3
11.7 Y/cmp vs 11.8
5.4% TD% vs 4.1%
3.4% INT% vs 2.9%
89.2 QB rating vs 86.0

That tells me Cutler hasn't actually changed. He's the same 'Pro Bowl' QB he was in Denver. Had he not gotten injured, his totals would have probably looked a lot like 2008.

Still doesn't tell me where to rank him, though, but it does dismiss the idea that Cutler was a different QB in Denver than he is in Chicago.

[Al B. Sure!]

Also, years ago this ESPN article pissed me off because it claimed Cutler was the best young QB "most likely to join Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the very elite class" and Eli, only two months before his first SB win, was among the worst, less promising than Derek Anderson, Vince Young, and Jason Campbell. It's hilarious to read it now:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?id=3142771

Cutler was the only one ranked as a 'Strong Buy' meaning "Analysts have a hard time seeing him failing. Reserved for those who possess the physical tools and intangibles to join the very elite."

Cutler's assessment:

The second-year pro has completed better than 60 percent of his passes through his first 18 regular-season starts, but the numbers don't begin to explain what separates Cutler from the others.
"I love him," the AFC scout said. "He's athletic, poised, smart, accurate -- and there was just something about that kid coming out, the way he was wired."
The Broncos have had problems surrounding Cutler with a consistent supporting cast. Losing veteran center Tom Nalen was a significant setback. Top receiver Javon Walker has hardly played. Top running back Travis Henry has 34 carries over the last seven games.
Cutler's numbers have suffered as a result, but he's still averaging 7.9 yards per attempt, putting him up there with Brett Favre (7.96) and Peyton Manning (7.9).
"He has an unbelievable career ahead of him," the NFC personnel director said. "He is Romo [in terms of confidence] with the physical tools to match. He's fun to watch because he's kind of like the kid who plays quarterback down at the playground. 'Let's just go play.'"
Cutler, 24, has less experience than the other quarterbacks on our list, leaving more for the imagination. But his poise and physical ability are obvious already.
"He has a cannon of an arm, obviously, and when he's in the pocket, he has the arm strength to make all the throws," an NFC pro scout said. "Throw in the fact that he can move around and buy additional time, and he's got a pretty impressive arsenal in terms of ability and arm strength and feet."

Cutler Watch
Bullish: Exceptionally strong arm, good mobility and accuracy, calm under pressure. Showed toughness in returning quickly from painful leg injury.
Bearish: Like many hard throwers, trusts his arm strength too much at times.

[Al B. Sure!]

No, he was a good QB with a good team. I don't think I ever said Troy Aikman won anything by himself, but keep twisting what I say.

This is why, in spite of my best efforts to like you, I always return to the "you suck" line of thought.

Here:

In the last eight postseasons, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are 19-16 combined, with two Super Bowl titles.

In the last eight postseasons, Mark Sanchez, Eli Manning, and Joe Flacco are 21-9 combined, with three Super Bowl titles.

[Ben Kenobi]

Cutler was the only one ranked as a 'Strong Buy' meaning "Analysts have a hard time seeing him failing. Reserved for those who possess the physical tools and intangibles to join the very elite."

Now imagine him being a division rival and touted over Rivers, and you understand why I feel the way I do about him. He's a decent QB, but he's never been elite except for one year.

He's a guy with okay stats and when you watch him play, he looks alright but nothing special.

And that's pretty much all he is. There's nothing wrong with being the prototypical 'average' nfl QB. Should he be paid 8 million a year?

[Al B. Sure!]

He was the same QB in 2013 as he was in 2008. The only difference was in 2008, he played all 16 games and he got hurt this year. Per game or per play, he was pretty much the same. A couple less attempts per game but a higher passer rating because he's slightly more accurate and quite a bit more likely to throw TDs now than he was in 2008.

You're the one who loves passer rating. Cutler had a higher rating this year than in his so-called elite year.

He's a decent QB, but he's never been elite except for one year.

Explain why his passer rating was better in 2013 than his elite year. Explain how his elite year was his 5th best season by passer rating. You love it so much but according to passer rating, 2008 was his FIFTH best year! 5th. In an 8 year career.

He threw for 4500 yards but so what? That was because the defense sucked and to squeak out an 8-8 record, Cutler had to throw 616 times. Wasn't like he was all that productive on his attempts. His Y/A was 7.3 which is okay. The sad thing is he only threw 25 TDs on 616 attempts and a 25-18 TD-INT ratio isn't exactly elite.

[Al B. Sure!]

Get it through your thick skull that volume doesn't mean ****.

Andrew Luck went from throwing for 4374yds last year to 3822yds this year. Did he regress? In your Beniverse he did.

His cmp% jumped from 54.1 to 60.2%. He threw the same 23TDs he did last year but on fewer attempts and halved his INTs from 18 last year to 9 this year. His passer rating jumped from 76.5 to 87.0.

But he threw for 35 less yards per game so he regressed, right?

[Ben Kenobi]

He was the same QB in 2013 as he was in 2008. The only difference was in 2008, he played all 16 games and he got hurt this year.

That's a significant difference, when it costs the team 5 games of the season. We've had this conversation before. Good rate stats don't make up for missed games in terms of QB value. Cutler at 25 percent less Cutler isn't as valuable as a healthy Cutler.

A couple less attempts per game but a higher passer rating because he's slightly more accurate and quite a bit more likely to throw TDs now than he was in 2008.

Per throw, perhaps but he had 25 in 2008. It's easier to have a higher rate and more completions when you throw less in any game.

You're the one who loves passer rating. Cutler had a higher rating this year than in his so-called elite year.

Indeed, and his rating still didn't break 90 over 11 games. Priced at 11/16th of a season that amounts to a 16 game rating of just 62. Good rate stats don't make up for 5 injury games.

Explain why his passer rating was better in 2013 than his elite year.

355 attempts vs 615 attempts. 50 yards per game less, and about half a yard per attempt. Cutler's throwing much less than he did back then, and he's throwing for shorter yardage. His INT percentage is actually up this year over his best year. The one stat that stands out is his sack percentage. The one year he did best - he had the best offensive line he's ever had.

Explain how his elite year was his 5th best season by passer rating. You love it so much but according to passer rating, 2008 was his FIFTH best year! 5th. In an 8 year career.

615 attempts.

He threw for 4500 yards but so what? That was because the defense sucked and to squeak out an 8-8 record, Cutler had to throw 616 times. Wasn't like he was all that productive on his attempts. His Y/A was 7.3 which is okay.

Higher that year than his Y/A this year, despite 355 attempts.

The sad thing is he only threw 25 TDs on 616 attempts and a 25-18 TD-INT ratio isn't exactly elite.

Which, drives my point home about Cutler. There's nothing about his stats that screams elite. It does scream Bob Griese, so there's that.

[Al B. Sure!]

Indeed, and his rating still didn't break 90 over 11 games. Priced at 11/16th of a season that amounts to a 16 game rating of just 62. Good rate stats don't make up for 5 injury games.

What? That doesn't even make any sense

Cutler's throwing much less than he did back then, and he's throwing for shorter yardage.

What? 2013 Y/A is 7.4. 2008 was 7.3. His Y/A is .1 yard per attempt higher in 2013.

615 attempts.

What the **** does this mean? Do you seriously think a QB throwing 600 times a season makes him a great QB? It means he's on a ****ty defense with no run game and he's forced to throw and/or he's a mediocre QB who needs more pass attempts to hang in games because he's throwing picks and stuff.

Efficiency, fool. Steve Young had one season where he threw 517 times. His next most pass attempts in a season was 462. Aaron Rodgers has never had a 600 pass season. Philip Rivers hasn't. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't.

If your QB is throwing 600 times a season and he's not Brady/Manning/Brees, there's something wrong. Those guys do it because that's the type of offense that their teams run because they're unquestioned Hall of Famers and their teams' best chance of winning is by letting them air it out.

When Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, and Matt Stafford throw 600+ times, as they did this year, it's because they and their teams ****ing suck.

Higher that year than his Y/A this year, despite 355 attempts.

Are you blind as well as dumb? 7.4 Y/A in 2013. 7.3 Y/A in 2008. 7.4 > 7.3. His Y/A this year is higher than 2008.