Apolyton Fantasy Football

[MRT144]

Benson plain has no upside. Even if I know he's going to get ~70 yards and maybe a TD every week, I'm never starting him over a Jahvid Best when both are healthy. Yes, with certain fantasy opponents and certain team configurations, it may be good to have a 'safe' Benson to churn out a few consistent points every week, but I usually avoid consensus top-5 RB's so I need my second-tier RB's to be explosive to make up for that.

Check the stats and charts thread. QED!

[-Jrabbit]

Benson has tremenous value as an RB3, assuming 10/pt rushing. In fact, he's a passable RB2 with that schedule.
I hate him as a player, but love him as a value pick.

[Al B. Sure!]

Check the stats and charts thread. QED!

???

I was the low scorer of the week but 5th in RB points despite playing a WR in flex.

[Jaguar]

The only guys in those top 5 lists I would question would be Miles Austin (Dez Bryant ascendant) and Rashard Mendenhall (breakdown risk in third year as bellcow RB). Offhand, I would substitute CJohnson and, um, probably Welker.

I forgot to reply to this earlier.

The evidence for Dez Bryant's alleged impending mega-breakout isn't strong enough to justify the ridiculous premiums people are paying for him. What, exactly, is the evidence that he's a clear superstar about to up-end one of the best receivers in football and make him irrelevant?

Are we really going bonkers for a guy who made 561 yards on 73 passes? (7.68 yards per pass) Miles Austin made 1047 yards on 119 passes. (8.80 yards per pass) I'm supposed to downgrade Austin because Bryant, the inferior receiver of the two, is about to become a voracious monster, devouring all of the targets he had last year, plus all of the targets Roy Williams had last year, and some of Austin's too, because god-forbid that Romo throw to anyone else?

Dez Bryant is the 3rd best pass catcher on the Cowboys and a viable NFL and fantasy starter. His average draft position, 40th, ahead of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Marshall, and Steve Johnson, is just nuts. Santana Moss, even (average pick 80th) will be competitive with Bryant this year. The #1 option on the Redskins is roughly equivalent to the #3 on the Cowboys.

[MRT144]

???

I was the low scorer of the week but 5th in RB points despite playing a WR in flex.

I had more points with benson and sjax.

[MRT144]

I forgot to reply to this earlier.

The evidence for Dez Bryant's alleged impending mega-breakout isn't strong enough to justify the ridiculous premiums people are paying for him. What, exactly, is the evidence that he's a clear superstar about to up-end one of the best receivers in football and make him irrelevant?

Are we really going bonkers for a guy who made 561 yards on 73 passes? (7.68 yards per pass) Miles Austin made 1047 yards on 119 passes. (8.80 yards per pass) I'm supposed to downgrade Austin because Bryant, the inferior receiver of the two, is about to become a voracious monster, devouring all of the targets he had last year, plus all of the targets Roy Williams had last year, and some of Austin's too, because god-forbid that Romo throw to anyone else?

Dez Bryant is the 3rd best pass catcher on the Cowboys and a viable NFL and fantasy starter. His average draft position, 40th, ahead of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Brandon Marshall, and Steve Johnson, is just nuts. Santana Moss, even (average pick 80th) will be competitive with Bryant this year. The #1 option on the Redskins is roughly equivalent to the #3 on the Cowboys.

This is exactly what I've always been thinking in relation to Dez. In most of my leagues I have Moss and Stevie because they were passed over for people like Dez and I just don't think Dez has that monster upside. It literally would take an injury to both Witten and Miles to see Dez beasting all over the place.

[Jaguar]

Dallas historically passes for about 4200-4300 yards per season in the Romo era. It's very consistent.

I have something like this:

Austin 1200
Witten 900
Bryant 750
All RBs 600
FBs/Other TEs: 250
Ogletree: 300
Other WRs: 200

Total: 4200.

Of course, the "Others" categories will pick up slack if there are injuries.

I see a case for expanding Dallas out to 4400 yards passing or something, but typically the pass offenses with truly gigantic numbers spread out more, not less.

[-Jrabbit]

You may be right on Dez; I didn't draft him either (took Welker). But I feared that the Dallas brain trust might try to force the issue with more targets going to Bryant, especially when they took him off punt returns. No diss on Austin; I just wasn't confident he wouldn't take a hit in the process.

So I drafted Romo (over Schaub; still second-guessing myself on that) and figured it would sort itself out.

[Jaguar]

Another way to think about it, I guess, is that only Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning have ever been capable of supporting three 1000-yard receivers in the same season.

Dallas has two guys who have each reached 1000 yards two years in a row. Bryant has to unseat one of them (despite all indications that they are excellent football players) or Romo has to become the third QB in NFL history capable of the sheer gross passing yardage production required to create three thousand-yard receivers, in order for Bryant to hit 1000 yards.

But it's worse than that - the market seems to have Bryant well over the 1000-yard threshold.

Wes Welker, drafted after Bryant on average, has averaged about 1230 yards in his healthy seasons, and still managed 870 (a number Bryant wasn't even close to reaching last year) in a year where he was recovering from an ACL injury. Brandon Marshall (also drafted after) averages around 1180 per season as a starter.

The market seems to see Bryant getting 1100 yards. Austin is drafted up top with Greg Jennings and Mike Wallace, suggesting that they have him for about 1250 yards. Witten is getting drafted up with Vernon Davis and Jermichael Finley, suggesting the market has him for 1000 yards.

Sometimes the market simply produces numbers that don't add up. This is one of those times.

[-Jrabbit]

We're in total agreement on Bryant's overall value. All I was suggesting is that his presence might pull Austin out of the top 5. I had enough doubt that I went in another direction at WR. Poly IDP (12 teams) is the only league where I bothered to compete for a top-5 WR, and I took Calvin Johnson in R2, #19 overall (3rd WR, after Andre and Roddy).

[Ben Kenobi]

It's also why I traded him and kept Vincent Jackson and Davone Bess. I expect both to do better than Austin this year.

[ColdWizard]

Another way to think about it, I guess, is that only Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning have ever been capable of supporting three 1000-yard receivers in the same season.

Dan Fouts, 1980. Mark Rypien, 1989.

[MRT144]

Dan Fouts, 1980. Mark Rypien, 1989.

So it's a once in a generation kind of thing?

[Jaguar]

Dan Fouts, 1980. Mark Rypien, 1989.

Nice catch.

[Ben Kenobi]

Offered DeAngelo and Evans for Santonio.

I got Santonio for Cutler. So basically the trade amounts to Lee Evans + DeAngelo for Jay Cutler.

Cutler value: 7 bucks on draft day.

Santonio value: 17 bucks (+10)

Evans + DeAngelo: 25 + 4: (+12) = +19 total.

Countered with

Santonio + Torain -> Fred Jackson + Austin Collie