NHL Playoffs

[Ben Kenobi]

http://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/nhl/article/1006100--cox-loving-these-canucks-sure-isn-t-easy?bn=1

The star?

Yeah, I had you pegged as a Torontonian. Since when are they a credible source on the Canucks?

[Asher]

You were so quiet after game two. I see nothing to indicate that he can't close this out.



Complete bullcrap. You obviously don't understand regression. Regress to the mean would mean his playoff numbers would approach his season numbers.

You obviously don't understand. Regression to the mean would mean his playoff numbers would be lower than his season numbers. His season numbers were overly high.

It's the same thing with the Vancouver powerplay -- it couldn't sustain at that kind of clip. Ditto the shooting percentages for Vancouver's top scorers. The numbers were abnormal, and in life things tend to regress back to the mean. They are. Vancouver's insane powerplay becomes Vancouver's laughable powerplay, and near the end the mean will be pretty reasonable.

[Asher]

The star?

Yeah, I had you pegged as a Torontonian. Since when are they a credible source on the Canucks?

Since when were opinion columns ever "credible sources"?

Every article I've seen about the Canucks outside of Vancouver trashes them, repeating things I've said here for years. Some people are slow on the draw.

[Supr49er]

The Canucks are very fortunate that Hockey doesn't use the 2-3-2 format. There is no way they would win in Boston tonight. At least now they have a chance.

[Ben Kenobi]

Every article I've seen about the Canucks outside of Vancouver trashes them, repeating things I've said here for years. Some people are slow on the draw.

And that's supposed to mean something? Crazy.

[Ben Kenobi]

You obviously don't understand. Regression to the mean would mean his playoff numbers would be lower than his season numbers. His season numbers were overly high.

Uh, quite the opposite. His season numbers are a much larger sample. We'd expect to see his numbers end up in about the same place.

Your analysis boils down to this, "I think Bobby Lou isn't as great as his numbers, so when he does terrible he's regressing to where I think he should be."

It's the same thing with the Vancouver powerplay -- it couldn't sustain at that kind of clip. Ditto the shooting percentages for Vancouver's top scorers. The numbers were abnormal, and in life things tend to regress back to the mean. They are. Vancouver's insane powerplay becomes Vancouver's laughable powerplay, and near the end the mean will be pretty reasonable.

Sure, but here's the problem. You're assuming that Bobby Lou's numbers for the season were inflated. Right there you've chucked impartiality.

[Asher]

And that's supposed to mean something? Crazy.

That a non-homer opinion is decidedly unflattering to the integrity of the Canucks.

[Asher]

Uh, quite the opposite. His season numbers are a much larger sample. We'd expect to see his numbers end up in about the same place.

Your analysis boils down to this, "I think Bobby Lou isn't as great as his numbers, so when he does terrible he's regressing to where I think he should be."



Sure, but here's the problem. You're assuming that Bobby Lou's numbers for the season were inflated. Right there you've chucked impartiality.

I'm not just referring to Luongo's numbers. I'm referring to the fact that all season long and for much of the playoffs, the Canucks have been getting the good bounces and pucks have been going in with improbably high shooting percentages. Luongo isn't why they had a 117 point season, he was "good" at best. He was not stealing games.

I am no longer going to try to explain this concept to you. It is obviously too abstract for you to comprehend.

[Ben Kenobi]

That a non-homer opinion is decidedly unflattering to the integrity of the Canucks.

The Star is hardly non-homer.

[Ben Kenobi]

I'm not just referring to Luongo's numbers. I'm referring to the fact that all season long and for much of the playoffs, the Canucks have been getting the good bounces and pucks have been going in with improbably high shooting percentages. Luongo isn't why they had a 117 point season, he was "good" at best. He was not stealing games.

Smells like more of this 'artistic bull****' to me. His numbers were excellent. His numbers through to game 2 were about what we would expect to see, so your 'regression to the mean' is a crap argument.

What I see is just the opposite. Boston's been getting the bounces in both games and the Canucks have not. I don't expect that to continue for the rest of the series, and I expect the Canucks to start trending back towards the mean, because right now they are below it.

[Asher]

The Star is hardly non-homer.

So the Star is a Canucks homer organization?

[Asher]

Smells like more of this 'artistic bull****' to me.

Yes, the concept of regression to the mean is entirely an artistic one. Well done.

What I see is just the opposite

When is this not the case about anything? You are completely incapable of ever being correct about anything.

[Ben Kenobi]

So the Star is a Canucks homer organization?

Uh, I don't think that being a Leafs homer organization makes them impartial, but apparently you do.

[Ben Kenobi]

Yes, the concept of regression to the mean is entirely an artistic one. Well done.

Oh regression to the mean is simple. Luongo put up certain numbers over the course of a season. We'd expect his playoff numbers to reflect similarities with his season numbers.

This they were, after game 2. His playoff numbers were close to his season numbers.

Then he had two bad games and your argument is that the bad games are 'regression to the mean'. Just the opposite. They distort his numbers to below what you would expect.

Now, you handwave this away, by stating, "I believe his season numbers to be overinflated". Fine, that means you are now in the realm of 'art'. You can explain every downturn as 'regressing to the mean', where what it really means is that 'I believe he's a **** goalie'.

Glad to see we have your bias out of the way. What do you think Luongo's numbers for the season ought to have been?

[Asher]

Uh, I don't think that being a Leafs homer organization makes them impartial, but apparently you do.

Toronto hates Boston far, far more than Vancouver, generally. Are you aware of the recent trades in Boston...?