NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - Off Season

[Al B. Sure!]

On my draft chart, not including Favre and McNabb who were also in his era I have the following rated ahead of Eli:

Peyton, Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Brady, Schaub. First Tier.

Flacco, Bradford, Palmer, Roethlisburger, Ryan, Sanchez, Henne, Garrard [[Romo]]. Second Tier.

Orton, Eli, Freeman, Cutler, Hasslebeck, Kitna, Hill, Smith, Cassell, Vick. Third Tier.

If I know that Romo is out and Kitna is starting, Kitna moves up to second tier.

Eli hits all my negatives.

5th in Yardage. 4th in TDs, 9th in Completion percentage, 1st in Interceptions, Dead last in interception percentage, 9th in y/att, 14th in y/c, 17th in QB rating.

He throws lots, but not as much as Orton or Cutler, and throws more interceptions. What's the upside with Eli?

You know I'm not a big fan of either Orton or Cutler, but Cutler has 4500 yards, which is 500 more than Eli's best year.

This guy seriously has Orton, Cutler, Kitna, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco... ahead of Eli Manning? What planet are you from?

Orton? Kyle Orton?
Kitna? Kitna?
Cutler? Cutler?
Henne? Chad Henne? Miami Dolphins QB Chad Henne?
Joe Flacco? Ravens Joe Flacco?


On what planet are any of those guys EVER even equal to Eli Manning, let alone better than him?

David Garrard? You really think David Garrard is better than Eli Manning? What the ****?

[Al B. Sure!]

but Cutler has 4500 yards, which is 500 more than Eli's best year.

That right there is why Ben is a ******.

Jay Cutler threw for 4500 yards in 2008. That year, the 8-8 Broncos were the 29th ranked defense and the runningback position was an injury-filled carousel. It was that year that Peyton Hillis emerged as a rookie before going down with an injury. Along with Hillis, Michael Pittman, Selvin Young, Tatum Bell, Andre Hall, PJ Pope, Ryan Torain, and even Eddie Royal carried the rock for the Broncos that year.

Why do you think Cutler threw for 4500 yards? He had to! That doesn't mean he's good! That means his defense was so bad, and the RB situation was so terrible, that Shanahan did nothing but pass pass pass. ANYBODY can throw the ball 616 times, as Cutler did that year! That doesn't mean he's good!

Eli Manning never had to throw that many god damned times.

Not only that but that year was a complete aberration for Cutler!

The year prior: 3497 yards
The aberration year: 4526 yards
The year after: 3666 yards
The year after that: 3274 yards

Only in the Beniverse does this get construed as Jay Cutler being good.


And what do you mean Eli throws more INTs than Cutler? Cutler has a 3.6% INT percentage. Eli's is 3.4%. It's a slight difference but Cutler throws more picks. They have identical 4.7% TD percentages, though. So on a TD-INT basis, Eli is slightly better.

[Al B. Sure!]

**** when Cutler threw for 4500+ yards, he only threw 25 TDs! Who the hell throws for 4500 yards and only 25 TDs?!

If you compare the average season (excluding rookie campaigns) for Eli and Cutler, you'd see Cutler averages 140 more yards but throws 1.25 LESS TDs and 1.2 MORE INTs than Eli Manning.

I'll take the 1.25 extra TD and 1.2 less INT over the extra 140 yards any day.

[Al B. Sure!]

Let's play rank the QB's!

Since you love to look at stats alone, Ben, let's see if you can rank these nameless QB averages in the same order as your tiers!

Anyone else can join in! It should be a fun game. I have the stats saved with the respective QB names on my computer. Just judge the QB's by their average numbers and rank them. I'll then give you the names of the QB's in the ranking you made.

The following are the average seasons excluding both rookie campaigns and any seasons where a QB missed more than 3 starts... also noting the number of years included. An average over more years, obviously, should mean more. In order to not give it away too much, I'm organizing the years by groupings (< 4 years, 4-6 years, 7+ years). Be sure to consider the TDs, INTs, and proven longevity at that rate.

3089 yards 13.5 TDs 16.5 INTs <4 years
3244 yards 21.3 TDs 11.3 INTs <4 years
3310 yards 25 TDs 11.5 INTs <4 years
3317 yards 17.6 TDs 12.6 INTs <4 years

3446 yards 21.5 TDs 14.2 INTs 4-6 years
3497 yards 22 TDs 10.3 INTs 7+ years
3574 yards 23.25 TDs 15 INTs 4-6 years
3600 yards 25 TDs 17.3 INTs 4-6 years

3617 yards 23 TDs 11 INTs <4 years
3685 yards 20 TDs 19 INTs 4-6 years
3740 yards 23.75 TDs 18.5 INTs 4-6 years
3813 yards 26.6 TDs 15.6 INTs 4-6 years

3851 yards 29 TDs 10.5 INTs 7+ years
3902 yards 27 TDs 11.4 INTs 4-6 years
4047 yards 29.3 TDs 14 INTs <4 years
4117 yards 27.8 TDs 14.6 INTs 7+ years

4131 yards 28.6 TDs 10.3 INTs <4 years
4257 yards 31 TDs 14 INTs 7+ years
4570 yards 26.5 TDs 13.5 INTs <4 years

Have fun!


*of course, stats aren't everything. Averages can get inflated by unique seasons and stats are not as meaningful without context. Stats also do not tell if a QB wins or loses games, if he has playoff success or even makes it to the playoffs, or if he wins championships.

[-Jrabbit]

*of course, stats aren't everything. Averages can get inflated by unique seasons and stats are not as meaningful without context. Stats also do not tell if a QB wins or loses games, if he has playoff success or even makes it to the playoffs, or if he wins championships.

Exactly - especially context like offensive philosophy and surrounding talent.

So why feed the trolls?

[Al B. Sure!]

If I know that Romo is out and Kitna is starting, Kitna moves up to second tier.

How does this statement make sense on a ranking of QBs? Either Kitna is second tier or third tier. He can't become better because another QB gets injured.

Do you even understand what a ranking means? It means the QBs themselves. How the hell is someone going to move up (be better) contingent on another player?

[Al B. Sure!]

Exactly - especially context like offensive philosophy and surrounding talent.

So why feed the trolls?

So when he says he thinks Chad Henne (guess which one is his averages on my list?) is better than Eli Manning, he's just ****ing with me?

[Boris Godunov]

Albie, BK's entire M.O. is distorting facts and massaging irrelevant statistics to try and justify his baseless pre-conceived notions. We all know this. You know this.

[Al B. Sure!]

Albie, BK's entire M.O. is distorting facts and massaging irrelevant statistics to try and justify his baseless pre-conceived notions. We all know this. You know this.

But how can his baseless pre-conceived notions ever be this wrong? Who has even a passing familiarity with football and thinks Chad Henne is better than Eli Manning? That's not possible.

Oh wait... Doug Flutie better than John Elway and Jim Kelly... Testaverde deserving to be in the Hall...

[Boris Godunov]

But how can his baseless pre-conceived notions ever be this wrong?

Albie, BK is wrong about things which can be demonstrably proven with irrefutable evidence. At least with determining whether or not something is "better," there's room for personal opinion about what constitutes "better" and agreeing to disagree. So this is hardly the worst instance.

[Al B. Sure!]

Something I did find very interesting when getting the stats is this... nothing to do with Eli Manning but it sort of confirms something I've always thought about one QB being overrated and the other underrated.

Two QB's came into the league the same year. Both QB's were starters as soon as they entered the league. Both QB's have been pretty healthy. One has never missed a start while the other has missed two games. Including their rookie seasons, this is the comparison of the two:

QB #1:
33-13 as starter; 0-2 in playoffs
3353 yards 22 TDs 11.3 INTs
6.9 Y/A
60.8% completion percentage
Sacked an average 19.6 times a season
91.6 yards 0.6 TD rushing average

QB #2:
32-16 as starter; 4-3 in playoffs
3402 yards 20 TDs 11.3 INTs
7.2 Y/A
62% completion percentage
Sacked an average 36 times a season
106 yards 1 TD rushing average


So QB #2 has been much better in the playoffs, throws for more yards, is more of a down-field thrower, is more accurate, but gets sacked a lot so he may be playing behind a worse offensive line.

QB #1 throws for more TDs but in all other respects, is worse statistically than his counterpart, though he gets sacked a lot less. He may be quicker releasing the ball and dodging the blitz, his offensive line may be better, or some combination of both.

Now for some context.

QB #1's team averages:
2070 yards rushing, Defense averages 343.1 yards allowed per game
#1 receiver on team has averaged 1308 yards per season

QB #2's team averages:
2135 yards rushing, Defense averages 293.5 yards allowed per game
Two different #1 receivers over stretch; average of 967 yards per season

So the statistically (and winning playoff games) better QB has the benefit of a slightly better rush attack and significantly better defense but has a worse #1 receiver.


Considering all this, which QB is better?

Spoiler:

QB #1: Matt Ryan
QB #2: Joe Flacco

[-Jrabbit]

The above post is a great illustration of why QBs belong in tiers/groups, not in a rank order. There's no appreciable difference between them that can't be explained by factors unrelated to their actual talents. You seem to be implying that this is not the common perception. Are you carrying a torch for Flacco and think he is disrespected?

1. Neither of these guys has proven a damn thing.
2. Who really cares about the relative ranking of mid-level players at ANY position?

BTW, if the phrase "Chad Henne is better" didn't tip you off that it was a troll, you deserve any and all pain and anguish Ben provides you.

[SlowwHand]

Eli's been playing 7 years and Henne only 3. Henne could very possibly turn out better.

COMPLETION PERCENTAGE: Henne’s completion percentage of 61.1 is the second highest career completion percentage in Dolphin history.

[Ben Kenobi]

This guy seriously has Orton, Cutler, Kitna, Chad Henne, Joe Flacco... ahead of Eli Manning? What planet are you from?

The planet of QB awesomeness. All the QBs I have drafted have turned out to be pretty good. And that includes that Rivers fellow who I picked up in the second round who was the best QB last season.

Ask the Eli owners what it's like having him as your QB of suck? He can put out a good game. He can also throw up the worst games ever and make you lose. I don't want any part of that.

On what planet are any of those guys EVER even equal to Eli Manning, let alone better than him?

Flacco I drafted in the 6th round and he turned out pretty good. Garrard in the 14th and he was the same.

David Garrard? You really think David Garrard is better than Eli Manning? What the ****?

He was an absolute steal last season. I expect him to continue to progress. Eli? YMMV.

[Ben Kenobi]

Slowwhand gets it.

Eli is almost 30. Henne, et al have the potential to grow as QBs and be better. It seems that Eli has hit his peak.

The key is to find players that are underrated and will likely be a steal. Eli will never be a steal simply because he plays for the Giants. Henne on the other hand? I've not drafted him (mostly because I go with a draft the top tier always) and when he usually goes I am drafting other positions. I got Garrard in later round who had better performance than Henne, so I was most happy with that pickup.

I can't go on last years performance, I have to go with what I expect to get out of next year. I see Eli, I see a limited yardage pick machine. I want to draft a QB who's got the offense devoted to him, not where there are better and more consistant RB options. So yes, Eli can be a decent QB, but as he has matured, the Giants have gotten worse, not better.