Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[-Jrabbit]

Go for it!

[MRT144]

Go for it!

Is there really enough appetite here for another FF league?

[-Jrabbit]

Dunno. Plenty of time though.

[snoopy369]

I'd join an auction league, flex TE or not. Not TOO weird of rules, though.

[MRT144]

I'd join an auction league, flex TE or not. Not TOO weird of rules, though.

I'd keep the same scoring as in the other leagues, although maybe not the harshness of sacks and the completion and incompletion points.

[snoopy369]

Comp/Inc points are pretty important to good QB scoring. Sacks I could live without, though they're a good rein on QBs who are in pass-happy offenses (more passing focus = more sacks). C/I though really differentiate good QBs from bad QBs, and are why QBs are drafted as high as they are in this league.

[Al B. Sure!]

more passing focus = more sacks

Peyton Manning was only sacked 10 times last year.
Tom Brady was sacked 16 times.
Drew Brees was sacked 20 times.
Mark Sanchez in the far and away least pass-oriented offense (607 rushing attempts last year) was sacked 26 times, the same number as Carson Palmer and Chad Henne who both commanded more ground-based teams.

It seems to make sense that the more passing plays you call, the more exposure you have to blitzes and that is true but teams that have more passing focus probably also have offensive lines that can pick up the blitz (as the Colts and Patriots surely do).

[MRT144]

Comp/Inc points are pretty important to good QB scoring. Sacks I could live without, though they're a good rein on QBs who are in pass-happy offenses (more passing focus = more sacks). C/I though really differentiate good QBs from bad QBs, and are why QBs are drafted as high as they are in this league.

I'm just going based on all the leagues I've ever played in. Sacks never counted against the qb except for rushing yards.

[Al B. Sure!]

Here, I plotted the dropbacks/sacks for the top 32 QB's last year in pass attempts (Matt Schaub at 583 attempts to Ryan Fitzpatrick at 227 attempts). Dropbacks are defined as pass attempts + sacks.



There is some correlation there, but there's a lot of outliers.

It looks to me like the QB's that rarely stepped back to pass had very little risk of getting sacked many times because they obviously didn't put themselves in that position very often. If you look at just those who had more than 450 dropbacks, it is a jumbled mess without any clear trend.

The average QB dropbacked 473 times (standard deviation of 114), threw 445 pass attempts (standard deviation of 110), and was sacked 28 times (standard deviation of 10.23).

(it would have been better to consider dropbacks/total offensive plays but getting the data for that would be very difficult considering that many QB's didn't play the whole season and I can't find rushing statistics depending on which QB is playing)

[Al B. Sure!]

I ran a regression analysis with the same data.

Considering all 32 QB's, I got 4.3 sacks for every 100 dropbacks but an r^2 value of .2363 and ANOVA says there is a statistically significant association at the 95% confidence interval.

When I consider only the 22 QB's that had more than 450 dropbacks, the r^2 value plummets to .024 and the relationship is no longer statistically significant.

So in sum, there is a relationship between how often a team passes the ball and how many times the QB is sacked but the relationship is not significant after 450 dropbacks, which 22 QB's exceeded last year.

So more passing does not mean more sacked QB's

[SlowwHand]

I'm not buying into that idea.

So what positions has everyone drafted? You're kind of falling behind in your duties.

[Al B. Sure!]

I'm not buying into that idea.

So what positions has everyone drafted? You're kind of falling behind in your duties.

It makes sense though. The quality of the offensive line has much more to do with how often the QB is sacked than how many times he drops back. Also, teams that pass more obviously look to acquire the best pass blockers and they get the most proficient at pass blocking if for no other reason than they do it all the time so you see teams like the Colts that only gave up 10 sacks.

And anyway, it makes Jaguar's job a whole lot easier.

[SlowwHand]

But let me say this. A pass needs to be thrown in about 3 seconds. If you have a QB that is slow on release, he's down and it's not his line's fault.

[SlowwHand]

dp

[snoopy369]

I'll buy that # of dropbacks itself isn't necessarily correlated; but you are more likely to get a sack if you are in a deep passing game, no? WC offense has lower chance of sack as it's faster, but lots of deep passes ought to correlate more with sacks.