NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - 2010 Offseason

[Jaguar]

Marshall Faulk is actually as awesome as Al B. thinks he is.

Let me put it this way: if I were to make an all-time team, I would take Jim Brown, Barry Sanders, and Marshall Faulk as my three running backs.

Marshall Faulk in his prime was the most efficient receiver in modern NFL history. No other player is even close. On a volume basis, a very elite handful of wide receivers put together more valuable seasons - Rice, Moss, Irvin. But on an efficiency basis, Faulk is the greatest receiver of all time.

Don't believe me? Let's look at Faulk's absolute best receiving season. He was thrown 104 passes, catching 87 of them for 1048 yards. Ten yards per passing attempt, to a possession receiver, is unheard-of. Faulk's 84% catch rate is one of the most statistically impressive accomplishments by any player in my lifetime.

But what we really want to know is how good the combination of 10.0 yards per attempt, 84% completions is. Fortunately, footballoutsiders.com has developed a statistic called DVOA, which accurately measures the value added by a receiver per play. 0% is league average. -13% is what you'd expect out of a scrub on an average team. The best receiving DVOA by a back other than Marshall Faulk is 46%, by Larry Centers in his hundred-catch season.

Marshall Faulk hit 71.2% that year. That's a mark that nobody has ever even come close to, especially on that many throws. In fact, here's a complete list of the best receiving seasons by a back with over 100 pass attempts:

1999 Faulk 71.2%
1998 Faulk 58.3%
2001 Faulk 47.6%
1995 Centers 45.9%
2000 Faulk 42.3%

These are the five most efficient receiving seasons ever for a player with 100+ passes. Even Randy Moss or Jerry Rice or Michael Irvin only hits about 30% in a great year. Obviously, comparing backs to receivers is apples to oranges: a great #1 gets more like 160 passes. But it turns out that even on a cumulative basis, these five seasons are comparable to the jawdropping ones by WRs, like Rice in 1994 or Moss in 2007.

Faulk is one of the three or four greatest receivers in modern history.

[ColdWizard]

Yeah. I know a lot of fans were bitter at him for the way he left, but come the **** on. Like it's his fault they have sucked for my entire lifespan, as well as a couple decades before that.

It's why I hate the Lions.

[Al B. Sure!]

Jaguar:

And just to re-iterate, he did all that AND ran for 12,279 yards and scored 136 total TDs which are feats in themselves.

However, to clarify things...

Just browsing through stats, in 2004, Larry Johnson hit 72.2% receiving DVOA according to Football Outsiders... he only did it on 22/28 passes though. Darren Sproles hit 73.1% in 2008 on 29/34.

[Lord Avalon]

Yeah. I know a lot of fans were bitter at him for the way he left, but come the **** on. Like it's his fault they have sucked for my entire lifespan, as well as a couple decades before that.

More like they blamed him for removing any chance of not sucking.

[OzzyKP]

Plus, if I recall, the year he retired the Lions made the playoffs again and had a decent team that would have been so much better if Barry was still around.

[Al B. Sure!]

Plus, if I recall, the year he retired the Lions made the playoffs again and had a decent team that would have been so much better if Barry was still around.

1999... but they weren't unseating the St. Louis Rams and would've had a tough time making it far in the playoffs in the NFC Central with the Bucs (11-5) and Vikes (10-6)...

however, the runningbacks that tried to replace Barry were atrocious that year...

Greg Hill: 144 for 542 yards 2 TDs (3.8 yards per carry)
Ron Rivers: 82 for 295 and no TDs (3.6 yards per carry)

8-8 and a playoff appearance with that isn't bad at all.

[Ben Kenobi]

138 total TDs isn't bad, but LT has 154 in only 9 seasons. Faulk is much better with receiving touchdowns, with 36, whereas LT has 15.

LT is only 21 shy of Emmitt's record. Two solid seasons, and he'll be all alone.

The only other player who's even in the same ballpark is Randy Moss, and he's still 3 touchdowns back of LT.

That leaves Jerry Rice, Emmitt and LT. Personally I don't think there's a better RB out there who can score TDs like LT has. Not even Marshall Faulk who's in the top 4.

Plus you should probably add the 7 passing TDs that LT has too. That's one behind sweetness. So that would put him at 161 all-purpose TDs, and only 15 back of Emmitt.

LT is also 14 TDs away from becoming only the third non-kicker to score a thousand points.

[Al B. Sure!]

One, you're assuming LT isn't washed up. HE IS! He's done! Career over! He can't beat Shonn Greene out of the starting job. Do you realize how statistically unlikely it is for him to bounce back and put up two 1000+ yard seasons the next two years?

And it sounds weird to say it but touchdowns really don't mean ****! All it means is that Schottenheimer and Turner called his number a lot when they got down to the redzone.

Let's not forget how the single-season TD record was broken 3 times in 4 years!
2003: Priest Holmes 27 TDs
2005: Shaun Alexander 27 rushing 1 receiving
2006: LT 28 rushing 3 receiving

It just became a gimmick at that point. Yeah, it's a hell of an accomplishment for a player and the team but let's get real, when the record looks like it's in reach, you just keep giving him the ball so he can break the record.

It's like when Drew Brees came close to breaking Marino's single season passing yardage record... it was an accomplishment but had he broken it, it would've been cheap because they didn't care about winning games at the end of the season it was just let Drew throw 400 yards a game...

[SlowwHand]

Tony Dorsett holds a record that can never be broken. A 99 yard rushing T.D.
He wasn't a bad RB.

[Ben Kenobi]

One, you're assuming LT isn't washed up. HE IS! He's done! Career over! He can't beat Shonn Greene out of the starting job. Do you realize how statistically unlikely it is for him to bounce back and put up two 1000+ yard seasons the next two years?

Why does it require him to get 1000 yards rushing to put up more than 10 TDs? He had 12 last year. I don't think 21 over two seasons is unreasonable for him.

Who else will be scoring for the Jets?

Secondly, I think he can get 1000 yards and that he will start over Shonn Greene. Shonn Greene has never proven that he can carry a full workload.

It is a hell of an accomplishment for a player and the team but let's get real, when the record looks like it's in reach, you just keep giving him the ball so he can break the record.

14 2006-12-17 SDG KAN W 20-9 25 carries 199 yards 7.96 yards/carry 2 TDs

You see that 14, Albert? He didn't just break the record, he destroyed it.

Over 10 games, he had 28 touchdowns. He only needed 10 games to equal Priest Holmes.

He also threw for 2 touchdowns as well. 30 TDs in 10 games. Probably won't ever be done again.

[Al B. Sure!]

Tony Dorsett holds a record that can never be broken. A 99 yard rushing T.D.
He wasn't a bad RB.

Ahman Green had a 98 yard rushing TD in 2003; Is he great? Would that extra yard have made Ahman Green a great RB?



Garrison Hearst ran 96 yards in 1998 in an OT win... his run was the game-winner. That's amazing. But Garrison Hearst aint ****.


Of the 9 players to have 95+ yard rushing TDs, only two players were on a team that lost when they had the big run... Tony Dorsett was one of the two.

[-Jrabbit]

These stat wars are amusing. Meaning: just silly.

Jaguar, there's a reason the incomparable Larry Centers is the only other name on that list. Not to dis Marshall Faulk (I'm a big fan), but the real reason no other RB is close to his receiving numbers is that no other offense uses dink passes to the RB as a substitute for running the ball. And it's a helluva lot easier to complete a quick swing pass to an open RB than to throw downfield into coverage - which gave a significant boost to Warner's numbers as well. Hell, Martz's whole offense was predicated on spreading the field to get solo matchups, with Faulk usually "covered" by a LB once he got past scrimmage, rarely catching the ball more than 15 yards downfield, and NEVER seeing double coverage.

Impressive? Hell yes. But very misleading as a statistic.

Faulk is one of the three or four greatest receivers in modern history.

This is a joke, right? Or at least hyperbole? "Most efficient" I can agree with. "Best pass-catching RB" - fine. But you yourself admitted that comparing him with WRs is an apples/oranges situation.

[Jaguar]

Passes to Marshall Faulk weren't dink passes, though. Not even close. They averaged 10.01 yards per attempt. This isn't LaMont Jordan on the Raiders or something. Faulk ran longer routes than TJ Houshmandzadeh usually does.

And plenty of other offenses do use dink passes as a substitute for running the ball. Faulk was just way, way, way better than Brian Westbrook or Tiki Barber. At both receiving and running.

The reason I wouldn't compare him directly to a #1 receiver is because of number of attempts. A typical #1 receiver gets considerably more passes than Faulk did, and it's harder to remain perfect on 160 passes than it is to be perfect on 100. He is perfectly comparable to, say, Wes Welker in the type of routes he runs. He was just far, far more efficient on only slightly fewer plays.

Faulk got 453 receiving DYAR (a cumulative metric from FootballOutsiders) for his 1999 campaign. That's still one of the highest marks for any sort of receiver. DYAR is a measure of "getting the yards that you need when you need them," and in that field, Marshall Faulk was better than any player before or since.

[-Jrabbit]

Look, we basically agree. I just think some of that efficiency was scheme-related. 10 ypa doesn't address the distance of ball flight. I remember Faulk as a huge YAC guy, brilliant at making his man miss. And I disagree that his routes were the equivalent of a possession receiver. Martz puts his guys one-on-one, in space. Possession receiver routes are more into the teeth of the defense, mostly over the middle. On downfield routes, an RB is often matched with a LB, and few could stay with the likes of Faulk.

Again, I agree that Faulk was brilliant; arguably the most productive, dangerous back in any 4-year stretch of NFL history.

(I will never understand why Polian traded him just as he was coming into his prime.)

[Jaguar]

Look, we basically agree. I just think some of that efficiency was scheme-related. 10 ypa doesn't address the distance of ball flight. I remember Faulk as a huge YAC guy, brilliant at making his man miss. And I disagree that his routes were the equivalent of a possession receiver. Martz puts his guys one-on-one, in space. Possession receiver routes are more into the teeth of the defense, mostly over the middle. On downfield routes, an RB is often matched with a LB, and few could stay with the likes of Faulk.

The way to deal with that is to put a smaller, lighter player against him. But the problem is that makes you weaker against the run, because your smaller guy won't shed blocks as well. And unfortunately, Faulk was also the league's best rushing threat for three consecutive years in STL.

(I will never understand why Polian traded him just as he was coming into his prime.)

He wanted to leave, and there was pretty solid trade value from St Louis, and the Colts were in position for two different high-quality running back prospects at the time.

But yeah, the inability of the Colts' front office to work out a deal with Marshall Faulk was costly - even though they replaced him very well. Edge was great, but the opportunity cost in that draft was tremendous. They had the #4 pick overall in one of the NFL's greatest drafts from 4-10. Knowing Polian's tendencies, Torry Holt was probably the next player on his draft board after Edge. It's not too much of a stretch to imagine an alternate universe in which the Greatest Show on Turf gets set up in Indianapolis. Torry Holt and Marshall Faulk on the Colts, with Marvin Harrison instead of Isaac Bruce, and Peyton Manning instead of Kurt Warner.

The loss of Faulk is probably one of the worst mistakes of the Colts' front office. Frankly, they probably should've been willing to make Faulk whatever concessions possible.

Other big mistakes:
* Passing on Keith Bulluck for Rob Morris.
* Not trading up for MJD. (Polian actually wanted both MJD and Addai, and when MJD was there in the mid-late 2nd round, he was really hoping to spend the 2nd round pick on MJD, whom he rightly considered one of the draft's best players.)
* Trading up for Tony Ugoh
* General incompetence with developing interior linemen other than Ryan Lilja.