NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?! - 2010 Offseason

[Ben Kenobi]

LT is washed up and old and he's no improvement over Thomas Jones.

Thomas Jones had his best season last season. Ever. How often do you see that in a player in his tenth year playing? Not often.

I'm not saying Thomas Jones has much left in the tank but he still has 1-2 good years in him (similar career progression as Tiki Barber or Warrick Dunn).

LT 'falling off a cliff', still had 750 yards and 12 TDs, only two less than Thomas Jones' best season. That's pretty good, considering that last season he was seriously injured.

LT is already 2 years past the cliff. He might have an okay season but that will have much more to do with that great offensive line in New York than LT.

True just as much for Thomas Jones.

LT's a far better running back than Thomas Jones. He also has a chip on his shoulder with something to prove. So we shall see how he does this year.

Even the great Emmitt Smith had a down year, but he bounced back. Remember last season is the only season that LT has ever had in his career with under a 1000 yards in a season.

[Al B. Sure!]

nm

What were you going to say, Sloww?

[Al B. Sure!]

Thomas Jones had his best season last season. Ever. How often do you see that in a player in his tenth year playing? Not often.

So isn't this an argument as to why Thomas Jones is better than LT? And I've seen it before, in NY in fact... Tiki Barber shattered his career bests in every statistical category in his 9th and 10th years. 4500+ yards from scrimmage in those two years and a 5.2 ypc average. Same with Warrick Dunn. His 9th and 10th seasons were career years.

Now, it's true that hitting the 10th year is almost always like hitting a brick wall for runningbacks and Barber didn't play his 11th year and Warrick Dunn saw a decline in his 11th year... nevertheless, Thomas Jones's performance is typical for those with his sort of career progression (Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn; guys who started off their careers as backups and situational backs and had less tread on their tires going into their latter years).

Now, what do you suppose is going to happen to a guy like LT who has averaged close to 400 touches over the course of his career and has seen a dramatic drop-off in his yards per carry (3.8 in 2008 and 3.3 in 2009)? His 10th year is this year. Generally speaking, I would expect him to fall flat on his face.

At least out of Jones you can expect an 11th season similar to Warrick Dunn's (750 yards or so).

LT 'falling off a cliff', still had 750 yards and 12 TDs, only two less than Thomas Jones' best season. That's pretty good, considering that last season he was seriously injured.

TDs mean little. They're highly variable and just depend on what the coach wants to do in the redzone. LT clearly was not breaking off long runs for TDs so him scoring a lot has less to do with him and more to do with playcalling in the redzone. Maybe this is an area where the Jets can really utilize him since he still seems to be proficient at trudging his way for a few yards into the end zone. Shonne Greene, being a somewhat bigger back, I suspect, is good at this as well, however.

True just as much for Thomas Jones.

LT's a far better running back than Thomas Jones. He also has a chip on his shoulder with something to prove. So we shall see how he does this year.

Even the great Emmitt Smith had a down year, but he bounced back. Remember last season is the only season that LT has ever had in his career with under a 1000 yards in a season.

Again, not getting 1000 yards isn't the issue. A 3.3 yards per carry average IS the issue. He's worn out.

Emmitt Smith had a long career and had a dip as he approached 30 only to come right back. But that dip in 1997 was nothing compared to LT's two year slide. And Emmitt was still averaging over 4.1 ypc.

I'm not saying Jones won't have a fall off... I'm just saying Jones will drop to around 700-800 yards, MAYBE squeak out 1000 (Jamaal Charles looks pretty good in KC, however, so Jones may not get enough carries for a high yardage total). His ypc will drop but considering he was at 4.2 ypc last year, he can drop all the way down to 3.5 ypc and still be fairly productive, moreso than LT the last few years.

LT is done. This is classic Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Corey Dillon sort of drop-off. He's running on fumes at this point.

Do you just have a hard-on for LT because he went to Texas Christian?

[-Jrabbit]

No, it's because he was a Charger, and once Ben develops a man-crush, it's hard for him to let go.

A couple observations:
1. Tomlinson had a solid 5 years or so (can't be bothered to look it up) where he was indisputably the most productive RB in the NFL. TJones is not in that team photo.
2. This conversation is pretty silly, since both Tomlinson and TJones will be backups (or at least time-shares) in 2010 barring injury.

[Al B. Sure!]

So what if it's silly? We need more debates like this

What's interesting is that ESPN just ran an article which notes that LT and Jones have been among the leaders in carries both inside the opposing 10 and 5 for the last three years now, the only players to consistently be in the top 10 every year in carries that close to the endzone.

Last year, LT had 28 carries inside the 5 and Jones had 21. Jones is still more efficient in the redzone

(EDIT: That might not necessarily be true because I don't know what % of TDs scored came from inside the 5 and how many came from anywhere else on the field; still, intuitively, I expect Jones had more long TDs than LT so LT possibly might have been slightly more efficient but I would rather have a guy who can break off a longer run for a score than someone who has a higher TD % in the redzone)

[SlowwHand]

What were you going to say, Sloww?

I was just going to say something to Ozzy, but decided screw it.

[Ben Kenobi]

Now, what do you suppose is going to happen to a guy like LT who has averaged close to 400 touches over the course of his career and has seen a dramatic drop-off in his yards per carry (3.8 in 2008 and 3.3 in 2009)? His 10th year is this year. Generally speaking, I would expect him to fall flat on his face.

Same thing that happened to Emmitt Smith. One year drop below 1000 yards, and then back up the next year to around 1200 yards.

At least out of Jones you can expect an 11th season similar to Warrick Dunn's (750 yards or so).

Why wouldn't you expect the same out of LT? That makes no sense to me.

TDs mean little. They're highly variable and just depend on what the coach wants to do in the redzone. LT clearly was not breaking off long runs for TDs so him scoring a lot has less to do with him and more to do with playcalling in the redzone.

Ordinarily this would be the case, but you are looking at the best TD scorer in the history of the game. Yes, part of it is how LT is used, but you've never had anyone reach 100 TDs as fast as LT has. That's not just a fluke.

Maybe this is an area where the Jets can really utilize him since he still seems to be proficient at trudging his way for a few yards into the end zone. Shonne Greene, being a somewhat bigger back, I suspect, is good at this as well, however.

Actually, the smaller back is usually better at scoring TDs.

Emmitt Smith had a long career and had a dip as he approached 30 only to come right back. But that dip in 1997 was nothing compared to LT's two year slide. And Emmitt was still averaging over 4.1 ypc.

LT's 'drop' was down to 1200 yards, a good year for Emmitt at that point. The only reason it was considered to be a drop off is because of how high he had set the bar the year previous.

I'm not saying Jones won't have a fall off... I'm just saying Jones will drop to around 700-800 yards, MAYBE squeak out 1000 (Jamaal Charles looks pretty good in KC, however, so Jones may not get enough carries for a high yardage total). His ypc will drop but considering he was at 4.2 ypc last year, he can drop all the way down to 3.5 ypc and still be fairly productive, moreso than LT the last few years.

He's had the best two years of his career, but last year was the only year he has outrushed LT.

LT is done. This is classic Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Corey Dillon sort of drop-off. He's running on fumes at this point.

We shall see. He was injured last season, and only rushed in 14 games. I don't doubt if he were healthy that he would have rushed for 1000 yards.

[Ben Kenobi]

No, it's because he was a Charger, and once Ben develops a man-crush, it's hard for him to let go.

He's the greatest RB the game has seen. I think having a mancrush on him is to be expected.

[Al B. Sure!]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitEm00.htm

Emmitt Smith's lowest non-rookie totals before he was 33 were in 1997... he still rushed for 1074 and averaged 4.1 ypc. His biggest downfall was really that he only scored 4 TDs.

Last year, LT ran for 730 yards on 3.3 ypc. The yardage totals isn't the issue, the yards per carry is. He would have had to rush for 270 yards between the two games he missed to reach this 1000 you claim he could have. LT was not going to do that! And at an average of 3.3 yards per carry, he would've needed 82 carries between two games!

LT came into the league as a rookie swinging and put together 7 dominant years. His time has passed. The last two years have shown he is not going to have the longevity of a Walter Payton or Emmitt Smith... those guys never dropped to 3.3 ypc for a season in their careers.

And greatest of all time? Ever heard of Barry Sanders?

One of the greatest and possibly the greatest of his generation, but not of all time. And greatest of his generation only because of all the TDs and the fact that he emerged in the twilight years of guys like Curtis Martin who had an equally impressive career as LT...

honestly, let's look at LT's dominant years (2002-2006)
In that span, LT:
Rushing yds: 7940
Total yds: 10,473
TDs: 101

Very impressive but let's look at who else was making noise in 2002-2006
Tiki Barber:
Rushing yds: 7643
Total yds: 10,274
TDs: 45

Shaun Alexander:
Rushing yds: 7082
Total yds: 8133
TDs:89

Tiki racked up the yardage just like LT and Alexander was a TD monster as well, but NO ONE is claiming either of those backs are close to being the greatest of all time. Granted, LT one-upped both of them (Tiki in TDs and Alexander in total yards) but let's get some perspective. There were many years in that 5 year span when LT was not the clear cut #1 back in the league, let alone the best back to ever play the game.

[Al B. Sure!]

Because this is fun, let's look at the top 3 rushers, yards from scrimmage, and TD scorers during the height of LT's career:

2002
Rushing: Ricky Williams, LT, Priest Holmes
Total yards: Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams, LT
Rush/Rec TDs: Priest Holmes, Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis/Ricky Williams (tie)

2003
Rushing: Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, LT
Total yards: LT, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green
TDs: Priest Holmes, Ahman Green, LT

2004
Rushing: Curtis Martin, Shaun Alexander, Corey Dillon (LT was #7)
Total yards: Tiki Barber, Edgerrin James, Curtis Martin
TDs: Shaun Alexander, LT, Tiki Barber/Priest Holmes (tie)

2005
Rushing: Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, Larry Johnson (LT was #6)
Total yards: Tiki Barber, Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander
TDs: Shaun Alexander, Larry Johnson, LT

2006
Rushing: LT, Larry Johnson, Frank Gore
Total yards: Steven Jackson, LT, Larry Johnson
TDs: LT, Larry Johnson, Marion Barber/Steven Jackson/Willie Parker (tie)

2007
Rushing: LT, Adrian Peterson, Brian Westbrook
Total yards: Brian Westbrook, LT, Clinton Portis
TDs: LT, Joe Addai, Adrian Peterson


LT has his name up there more than anyone else, although this is partially because he emerged during the twilight years of guys like Curtis Martin and Corey Dillon and then guys like Steven Jackson and Adrian Peterson arrived too late on the scene. I'll give him credit for showing up so often, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here...

2002, the best back was Priest Holmes with Ricky Williams a close second
2003, the best back was possibly LT but Ahman Green and Jamal Lewis deserve mention (and Priest was a TD machine)
2004, Shaun Alexander scored TDs while Tiki Barber and Curtis Martin racked up the yardage (no sight of LT except as TD scorer)
2005, Shaun Alexander's big year though Tiki and Larry Johnson made noise (no sight of LT except as TD scorer)
2006, LT's big year though Larry Johnson was also dominating (end of Johnson's career here)
2007, LT again but Adrian Peterson has emerged and taken the reins of best back in the league.

So to sum, between 2002 and 2007, three years (2003, 2006, and 2007), LT was arguably the best back in the league. Impressive but not incredible.

[-Jrabbit]

The red zone stuff is interesting, but I view that as being more about the O-line than the RB. I do think LT will rebound somewhat this year -- because of the system, and the line in front of him. But I doubt he'll get half the carries in New York. If Tomlinson's over/under for rushing yards in 2010 was set at 800, I'd have to take the under.

[Al B. Sure!]

That offensive line is so good and Rex Ryan's staff is talented enough that LT is lucky enough to have the perfect storm for him but he's so washed up even with the perfect situation, he's not going to be very productive, especially not compared to what Thomas Jones has done the past three years. The offensive line is the only reason why he has any upside at all but I'm expecting 600 yards @ ~3.0 ypc. He might get a fair amount of catches and actually could be good for Sanchez as a checkdown option, something that Thomas Jones was never good at. That's the only reason I can see for bringing him in.

The Jets would've been better off snatching up Chester Taylor. Surprised they didn't. Wasn't Rex Ryan in Baltimore when Chester Taylor was backing up Lewis?

[Ben Kenobi]

Albert, if you look at the game splits, everything is much clearer.

He had an additional two games where he didn't have 10 carries. So he essentially only played 12 games last season. 4 games of 60 yards would have been sufficient to put him over, and I don't think that's too much of a stretch.

And greatest of all time? Ever heard of Barry Sanders?

LT has broken more records than Barry has. With all due respect, the man was amazing, but I think LT over the course of his career is better.

Tiki racked up the yardage just like LT and Alexander was a TD monster as well, but NO ONE is claiming either of those backs are close to being the greatest of all time. Granted, LT one-upped both of them (Tiki in TDs and Alexander in total yards) but let's get some perspective. There were many years in that 5 year span when LT was not the clear cut #1 back in the league, let alone the best back to ever play the game.

With all due respect, it's not even close between LT and Tiki.

Try the split from 2001-2007, when he had close to 1500 rushing yards in 2007, and 1200 in 2001.

Tiki only had 865 in 2001, compared to 1200 yards for LT in his rookie season. Say we select his 2000 season to match LT's 2007 season, and LT has an additional 400 yards.

So over a 7 year span, LT rushed for over 800 more yards than Tiki.

With Shaun Alexander, from 2001 to 2007, LT passes him by about the same margin, and crushes both in Touchdowns, and receptions.

LT is just a plain better back. More durable, and with a higher peak than either.

[Ben Kenobi]

But I doubt he'll get half the carries in New York. If Tomlinson's over/under for rushing yards in 2010 was set at 800, I'd have to take the under.

He only had 52 percent of the carries for the Chargers last season. Frankly, 37 percent of the Jets carries will be more work than he saw with the Chargers last season. Heck, 50 percent of the carries will be more work than he ever had under Norv. The Jets run the ball about 50 percent more than the Norv Turner Chargers.

[Al B. Sure!]

Ben:

It wouldn't be fair to include 2001 or 2007 because Tiki was not a starter in 2001. Remember Ron Dayne? And 2007, Tiki had retired. There was a reason why I did 2002-2006 (it was also the most productive 5 years of LT's career so I wasn't short-changing him, it's just I needed to compare the same sort of time frame).

Side note, Tiki Barber really should get more love than he gets. When he finally got to be the man in NY after being a scat back for so many years, he excelled and then retired at the top of his game [he even ran for 234 yards and 3 tds in his final regular season game of his career! Talk about going out on top!

* In 2006, Barber became only the 21st player in NFL history to rush for over 10,000 yards during his career. Tiki also became the third player in NFL history to gain more than 10,000 rushing yards and 5,000 receiving yards in a NFL career, joining Marshall Faulk and Marcus Allen.

* Led NFL in total yards from scrimmage: 2004, 2005
* 38 games of 100+ yards rushing
* 5 games of 200+ yards rushing
* Pro Bowl: 2005, 2006, 2007
* First player in NFL history with 1,800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in one season
* In 2005, Barber became one of three players in NFL history with at least three 200-yard rushing games in a season (O.J. Simpson had 3 in 1973 and Earl Campbell ran for 200 yards four times in 1980)
* He is one of only ten running backs to have over 400 receptions and 10,000 yards rushing. Walter Payton, Marshall Faulk, Marcus Allen, Emmitt Smith, Curtis Martin, Edgerrin James, Ricky Watters, Warrick Dunn, and Thurman Thomas are the other nine.
* In 2006, Tiki Barber became the fourth player in NFL history to have four 2,000 total yard seasons, joining Marshall Faulk, Brian Mitchell and Dante Hall.
* In 2006, Tiki Barber became the third player in NFL history to have at least 2,100 rushing attempts and 575 receptions in a career, joining Marcus Allen and Marshall Faulk.
* Tiki Barber is the third player in NFL history to be the career leader in both rushing yards and receptions with their respective NFL Franchises, joining Chicago Bears Walter Payton and Tampa Bay Buccaneers James Wilder.
* Tiki Barber is the fourth running back in NFL history to lead their respective NFL franchises in career receptions, joining Walter Payton (Chicago Bears), James Wilder ( Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Larry Centers (Arizona Cardinals).

Tiki Barber never scored a lot of TDs nor really grinded out rushing yards like other backs but he was about as versatile of a player as you can get. He'll never make the hall of fame but you look at the credentials above and you have to wonder why not. He doesn't even get credit as one of the best of his time.

End Side Note...