Fantasy Football Discussion [Both Leagues]

[snoopy369]

So Ben, for your guys, VOA / VOS:
Rivers: 3.9/1.3
Gates: 4.5/3.9
Jackson: 2.3/3.0
--
10.7/8.2

Non-Chargers:
Ward: 1.2/2.0
Colston: 1.2/2.0 (identical! Eerie)
McGahee: 1.9/3.7
Jackson: 1.2/3.0
--
5.5/10.7

Roughly equivalent, really, and that's giving you full credit for Jackson who you didn't have all year as well as giving you both McGahee and Jackson, presuming you don't start LT. Since you're at present starting LT, that's even more points off the Charger's offense (as my ultimate point was how many points you are getting from them, and not how many points your bench is giving you), and takes out either Jackson or McGahee, tipping it decidedly in SD's favor (and I'm not going to count LT's current number against him, since he has been injured, and I assume you wouldn't consider starting him if you really thought he was worth 6 points ... right? ... )

[SlowwHand]

You guys are disgusting. Well, and Imran. That goes without saying.
You can't just play a game? You're really sold on all the statistics in the world that you gather mean a thing? All it takes is, like...1st carry and Adrian Peterson rips out an Achilles.
Drew Brees gets planted by an LB.
So much for the statistics.

[Ben Kenobi]

Interesting analysis. Confirms your position that the only two that really stand out are Rivers and Gates, which makes sense because they are the 2nd and 3rd picks. Colston is not bad for a WR 1.5, and having the triplets is hilarious because of how close they've all been to each other.

As for LT, technically I'm running him as a RB1. I don't know how you want to assess him. If I'm running him as an RB1, then his VOA/VOS has a huge negative impact. I don't anticipate this will continue, but my managerial style has been if healthy I run with my studs and juggle the RB2 (McGahee/Jamal/Harrison/Jackson) for matchups.

As for the WRs, they are all pretty close. I don't run them particularly as a WR1/WR2, they are all for the most part WR1.5, better than most WR2s, but not as good as the top tier.

Those running backs are funny. Who would have thought that Michael Turner was the worst RB1.

[Ben Kenobi]

Slowwy, this is alot of fun for us.

If I had an actual date, I think I'd be out enjoying myself instead.

[SlowwHand]

All I know is that I have to beat Mountain Goats this week. If he loses half his team to swine flu, I don't care.

I'm still pissed off at EPW. I put up with Miles Austin long enough, then droped him. EPW picks him up, and I think we all know.
****ing Miles Austin.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well you should be able to beat him, even without Mendenhall, but it will be really tight. I don't mind if Mendenhall sits, that means there are more throws to Hines Ward.

[snoopy369]

Interesting analysis. Confirms your position that the only two that really stand out are Rivers and Gates, which makes sense because they are the 2nd and 3rd picks. Colston is not bad for a WR 1.5, and having the triplets is hilarious because of how close they've all been to each other.

As for LT, technically I'm running him as a RB1. I don't know how you want to assess him. If I'm running him as an RB1, then his VOA/VOS has a huge negative impact. I don't anticipate this will continue, but my managerial style has been if healthy I run with my studs and juggle the RB2 (McGahee/Jamal/Harrison/Jackson) for matchups.

As for the WRs, they are all pretty close. I don't run them particularly as a WR1/WR2, they are all for the most part WR1.5, better than most WR2s, but not as good as the top tier.

Those running backs are funny. Who would have thought that Michael Turner was the worst RB1.

Again, RB1/RB2 is meaningless really; they're both starters, and it's not like we have to play one at the expense of another.

VOA/VOS is only value *so far*; hence LT's numbers not mattering, if you presume he'll do better now that he's healthy [if?]. Of course, that might not be the case

And Sloww... I do this stuff for a living (data analysis), so it's sort of nice to do it sometimes for fun. This way my boss can't come in and yell at me for screwing something up, if I do.

[Ben Kenobi]

Can you do one for your team? I'm just curious.

I do some of this myself, and I miss my old job where I did this all day.

[snoopy369]

Interestingly, when I run out the numbers, you don't get quite the results you expect.

For the starting offense, counting both 3 WRs and 3 RBs (both because it's easier that way, and to give bench strength a value), the highest VoS is (no surprise) EPW. However, the next highest are Guynemer, Berz, and me, then zopp, Jaguar, and Sloww; all three seem like they'd be higher, given they're the scoring leaders along with EPW. Guynemer in particular stands out because of his very low scoring output, yet high value over starter. DoY is the only player below zero, at -2; three other players (Spaced, Tuberski, and DD) are in the single digits.

I attribute this to two major things; first, I didn't include K or D, and at least Jaguar and Zopp score a lot of points on D. Maybe I'll add that tomorrow, if I can convince PFR to give me what I want. Second, *who* you start does matter, and at least for me, several of my high scorers haven't started; Johnny Knox I just traded for, and Flacco has outscored Rodgers thus far, for example.

Also interesting to me is the fact that QBs don't matter as much as I expected they would. Although Peyton does lead the FFL with a +14.8, only Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub, and Drew Brees are over +5. Contrast that with RBs, where seven are over +5, and in fact all seven are over +6. In VOAland, it's even more interesting; RBs are far more valuable here also, because only 19 of them are above the average NFL starter (top 48) [you'd expect 24], while an identical 19 QBs are above the halfway point of the top 32 (you'd expect 16). Thus, most of us are starting one or two RBs that are below the NFL average for a starter, while all of us are starting an above-average QB, or could be [Spaced and DoY actually aren't].

TEs prove to be actually somewhat valuable compared to what I expected during the draft; they top out at +5.2 (Dallas Clark), which is better than the #8 RB or the #5 QB.

WRs, however, fell in line with my expectations; they top out at +7.4, but only have 6 players over +5, though compared to the average top-64 WR, only 27 are over that (you expect 32). Still, 27 is plenty, given that's basically two starters per team above the average NFL starter, and the WRs around there have a pretty tight range anyhow [the difference between the average fantasy starter and the average NFL starter is -0.8, compared to RB's -1.8, for example].

It is fun to see the folks at the bottom that are rather a surprise, except when they're on your team of course... Terrell Owens, for example, is worth over two points less than the average fantasy starter, as is Steve Smith (CAR), and Roy Williams; Tony Romo is a negative 4, Carson Palmer is a negative 5, and interestingly enough, Mark Sanchez is a negative 13, even though he's actually played quite well - just not fantasy well [and one really, really, really bad game]. (For the morbidly curious, yes, Jamarcus Russell is the worst QB that qualifies for a rating [15 pass attempts], at -27.7 VOS.)

[snoopy369]

The total VoS over/under, for QB, 3RB, 3WR, and TE (alphabetical):

 
                                    Owner             Value
                                    ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ
                                    Ben                14.7
                                    Berz               24.8
                                    Deity Dude          7.2
                                    Deviations         13.7
                                    DoY                -2.4
                                    EPW                  32
                                    Guynemer           25.5
                                    Jaguar             16.5
                                    Jrabbit              16
                                    Sloww              16.5
                                    Snoopy369          22.3
                                    Spaced Cowboy       1.1
                                    Tuberski            3.1
                                    Zopp               17.3

[Ben Kenobi]

I still can't believe he was drafted. If only you could convince Al Davis to manage based on these numbers.

[Ben Kenobi]

Interesting to see the tiers. My predictions based on the defenses:

EPW 32 (-)
Guynemer 25.5 (--)
Berz 24.8
Snoopy369 22.3

Zopp 17.3
Jaguar 16.5(++)
Sloww 16.5(++)
Jrabbit 16(-)
Ben 14.7 (+)
Deviations 13.7

Deity Dude 7.2
Tuberski 3.1
Spaced Cowboy 1.1
DoY -2.4

[Japher]

Need some help with my RW pay league I'm in here.

I've got most of my guys on byes this week (Colt guys) and I'm at a loss on who to start because my match-ups are pretty strong.

RB (start 2): Cadillac Williams, Matt Forte, Willie Parker, and Mewelde Moore

WR (start 3): Tory Holt, Mario Manningham, Dwayne Bowe, Derrick Mason, Johnny Knox

Any advice would be appreciated.

As it stands right now I'm starting Forte and Williams since Parker and Moore will split, and Williams play CAR who has the worse run defense. Still, Caddy hasn't done squawt this year.

Also starting Holt (revenge, also starting Garrard as a bye replacement), Bowe, and Mason. Everytime I don't start Bowe he scores, and every time I don't start Manningham he scores.

[SlowwHand]

Looks like your best options.

[-Jrabbit]

I agree with your list of 5 starters, Japh, unless you get return yards, in which case I would sub Knox for Holt.