College Football -- Better Than Ever

[SlowwHand]

There's no point in ranking after pre-season games. Even Big 10 teams can find weak opposition.

[Guynemer]

So, who's the cinderella in the BCS this year? TCU? Boise State? Nobody? Or can BYU/Utah overcome tough early losses?

Boise State or TCU look to be the most likely candidates, but TCU has a tough task this week. Don't count out Houston, either; C-USA is usually terrible, and they've already played (and won) what appears to be their toughest game of the season. (Though this week's game vs. the Red Raiders won't exactly be a picnic.)

[Drake Tungsten]

Um, Imran... you do realize you have OSU ranked quite a few spots ahead of USC, a team with an identical record that beat OSU on the road?

I already predicted this. This is how OSU makes the national title game again if Texas and at least one of the SEC title contenders don't go undefeated.

Inexplicable (at this point): Oklahoma 9 spots ahead of BYU

I don't find this to be inexplicable. Oklahoma did lose the defending Heisman Trophy winner during that game. It's not ridiculous to think that Oklahoma with Bradford is better than BYU.

[SlowwHand]

Speaking of BYU...

Thank you BYU
3:58 PM Sun, Sep 20, 2009 | Permalink
Josh Harvey
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With BYU's loss to Florida State yesterday, we can finally focus on the real non-BCS teams that have a shot at crashing the partying in 2009.

The new coaches' poll came out this afternoon and has Boise State and TCU both in the Top 15. These are the only two teams that should have been getting the attention in the first place.

It amazes me how year after year TCU does not get the credit that they deserve. Even after finishing 7th in both polls last year and beating undefeated Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl, it was a summer full of not so favoring predictions when it came to the Frogs. TCU had been tabbed by many to finish behind BYU this season. This left fans scratching their heads after the Cougars lost to the Horned Frogs 32-7 in Fort Worth last season.

A constant problem that Gary Patterson and TCU face is they do not get the respect around the nation that a team with their statue deserves.

If I would have had a vote in the 2008 Paul Bryant Award (Coach of the Year), it would have gone to TCU coach Gary Patterson. While coaches like Kyle Whittingham -Utah, Nick Saban - Alabama, Mike Leach - Texas Tech, Mack Brown - Texas, and Bob Stoops- Oklahoma all had great years, it was Patterson that had the best year coaching.

How many more seasons will it take before we finally realize that Gary Patterson and crew have to be a contender for a BCS run every season.

Boise State should finish the season undefeated after being Oregon in week 1, let's just hope they don't have to face TCU again in a non-BCS bowl.

[SlowwHand]

dp

[Guynemer]

Inexplicable (at this point): Oklahoma 9 spots ahead of BYU

I don't find this to be inexplicable. Oklahoma did lose the defending Heisman Trophy winner during that game. It's not ridiculous to think that Oklahoma with Bradford is better than BYU.

Of course it's not ridiculous to think that. But it is ridiculous to rank Oklahoma 10-12 spots ahead of a team that beat them head-to-head with so little other data available.

Think of it this way: If the Sooners and the Cougars both go unbeaten the rest of the way, if both finish with one loss, with no other common opponents between them, you know as well as I that the Sooners will finish ahead (and well ahead) of the Cougars in the polls. Even though the Cougars beat them straight up.

Same story with USC and Washington. If they both go undefeated the rest of the season, you know the Trojans will remain ahead of the Huskies.

Polls drive me ****ing nuts.

[Drake Tungsten]

Even though the Cougars beat them straight up.

Same story with USC and Washington. If they both go undefeated the rest of the season, you know the Trojans will remain ahead of the Huskies.

Polls drive me ****ing nuts.

While I agree with your general sentiment, these two cases really don't argue in your favor. The Cougars and Huskies didn't beat the Sooners or Trojans "straight up", as the starting QBs for both upset teams were out of commission due to injury.

A better example will be available once Ohio State runs the table in the rightfully maligned Big Ten and ends the season with a higher ranking than a USC team that actually did beat them straight up, on the road no less.

[Guynemer]

Injuries happen, Drake. That's football. That excuse doesn't track.

Besides, OSU remains behind USC at the moment. That's the only one the pollsters have right at this point.

[Drake Tungsten]

That excuse doesn't track.

Of course it does. A team's ranking in the polls reflects both objective evidence in the form of on-the-field matchups and subjective determinations of "true" quality. In the case of BYU-Oklahoma and Washington-USC, the objective evidence is less convincing than usual because the defeated team was clearly not at full strength for the game. As such, subjective determinations are going to carry more weight, which may result in the defeated team ranking more highly in the polls than the team that defeated them. I don't see a problem with that, even though I generally support your desire to see that objective data points are given more weight.

Besides, OSU remains behind USC at the moment. That's the only one the pollsters have right at this point.

I fully expect that to change.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Think of it this way: If the Sooners and the Cougars both go unbeaten the rest of the way, if both finish with one loss, with no other common opponents between them, you know as well as I that the Sooners will finish ahead (and well ahead) of the Cougars in the polls. Even though the Cougars beat them straight up.

Which they should. Oklahoma's schedule is far more daunting than BYU's. If they both finish with 1 loss, the Sooners should finish ahead.

[Guynemer]

Which they should. Oklahoma's schedule is far more daunting than BYU's. If they both finish with 1 loss, the Sooners should finish ahead.

Why even play the games, then? Whichever school has the toughest schedule is the automatic national champion.

[Imran Siddiqui]

So you are seriously saying that tougher schedules shouldn't matter?! Why play tough out of conference games then? Just schedule patsies.

[Guynemer]

Head-to-head matchups should count more, when possible; otherwise, what is the point?

[Drake Tungsten]

The point is that BYU would've had a better record than OU if they hadn't blown their chance by laying an egg against FSU. BYU only has themself to blame for being back in a situation where OU can be conceivably ranked ahead of them.

[snoopy369]

What's the relative value? For example, if two teams play schedules like so:
Team 1: A,B,C,C,C
Team 2: A,A,B,C,C

Both teams are (one) 'A' on each others' schedule. Team 1 beat Team 2, and lost to a 'C'. Both have one win against 'A', one against 'B', two against 'C' teams. Who is ranked higher?

Now:
Team 3: A,C,C,C,C
Team 4: A,A,A,B,C
Same thing, team 3 (A) beat team 4 (A); otherwise, team 4 has victories against 2 A, 1B, 1C, while team 3 has three victories and one loss to C teams.

Finally:
Team 5: A,B,C,C,C
Team 6: A,A,A,C,C
Ditto, etc.

How much does H2H matter versus SOS? How many equivalent-level wins cancel a H2H loss? Ignore differences due to other issues [conference, injuries, etc.] and solely focus on H2H here.