MLB - 2010 Spring Training!

[Arrian]

I don't really understand why the Phillies would trade Lee (for what they got from Seattle), even if they were sure he wouldn't sign an extension.

Alternative scenario: do the same trade with the Blue Jays, do the extension. Keep Lee (who makes what, $8MM?), let him walk at the end of the year. 2010 rotation: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ. DAMN.

Great trade by the Mariners. I don't get it from Philly's perspective.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Let me put it this way. Halliday is one of the top 5 all-time winningest pitchers for a .500 team at best.

He's pitched on average about 140 points above the team.

This is nothing short of blasphemy.

Halladay is great. He's also 33, and was on a team that isn't going to win this year. Or next year. As you say, he's been toiling for a so-so team for a long time. He wanted out. He wanted to play for a contender, as well as be paid what he's worth. Understandable, considering his age and abilities right now. He had the Jays over a barrel, because he has a no-trade clause. He gave them a list of teams, and told them to trade him to one of them by spring.

Toronto wasn't going to win with Roy Halladay. By the time they've gotten their act together, Roy will be old. They got several good prospects back. Considering the situation they were in, I think they did well. The new GM seems to know what he's doing. We'll know if he's a miracle worker depending on whether he can figure out a way to unload (part of) Vernon Wells' contract.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

I don't really understand why the Phillies would trade Lee (for what they got from Seattle), even if they were sure he wouldn't sign an extension.

Alternative scenario: do the same trade with the Blue Jays, do the extension. Keep Lee (who makes what, $8MM?), let him walk at the end of the year. 2010 rotation: Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ. DAMN.

Great trade by the Mariners. I don't get it from Philly's perspective.

-Arrian

Well, it could be they simply couldn't afford to pay both Lee and Halladay for even just one year.

[OzzyKP]

Granderson is my favorite player, but I can't deny that the Tigers are getting their money's worth. He'll probably never be worth more on the trade market than he is right now; probably also true of Jackson.

Besides the benefits of the salary dump, are these four prospects at all comparable? None of them seem to have put up any good numbers so far. None of them seem to represent a return of John Smoltz. Did Detroit get anything of value in return for dumping some start players?

And if all they wanted to do is dump salary, why didn't they cut or bench Ordonez last year? Doubtful he is going to be worth what the Tigers will be paying him this year.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Austin Jackson is supposedly a very good prospect. And the upside on Max Scherzer is high. Daniel Schlereth is pretty good as well. Basically a nice haul for the Tigers in terms of prospects. Have a potential ace, #3 pitcher, and good hitter (perhaps not as good as Granderson, but if you can get an ace with him, it works out).

[Imran Siddiqui]

Halladay is great. He's also 33, and was on a team that isn't going to win this year. Or next year. As you say, he's been toiling for a so-so team for a long time. He wanted out. He wanted to play for a contender, as well as be paid what he's worth. Understandable, considering his age and abilities right now. He had the Jays over a barrel, because he has a no-trade clause. He gave them a list of teams, and told them to trade him to one of them by spring.

Toronto wasn't going to win with Roy Halladay. By the time they've gotten their act together, Roy will be old. They got several good prospects back. Considering the situation they were in, I think they did well. The new GM seems to know what he's doing. We'll know if he's a miracle worker depending on whether he can figure out a way to unload (part of) Vernon Wells' contract.

-Arrian

Truth. Worth it to get something, considering Toronto won't win in 2010, rather than have one year of Halladay only to see him walk and sign with Philly (anyway), or NYY, or Boston. This way they get Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud, and Michael Taylor (who they dealt for former #1 pick Brett Wallace). They get a potential future #1 or #2 for a number of years, a good catcher prospect and a good 1B/3B prospect instead of one year of Halladay.

[OzzyKP]

Austin Jackson is supposedly a very good prospect. And the upside on Max Scherzer is high. Daniel Schlereth is pretty good as well. Basically a nice haul for the Tigers in terms of prospects. Have a potential ace, #3 pitcher, and good hitter (perhaps not as good as Granderson, but if you can get an ace with him, it works out).

Yea, I'm not down on Scherzer, but better than Edwin Jackson? And sure, Jackson had a good year, but I don't see how trading Jackson for Scherzer is an improvement, at best they broke even. It seems like Granderson for Austin is a clear downgrade not even considering the off the field value Granderson brings to the franchise.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Scherzer is supposed to have a good deal more upside than Edwin Jackson. Of course Austin Jackson isn't as good as Granderson, but it seems obvious that Detroit was looking at saving some money and how much Granderson was going to ask for in a new contract. The Yankees, of course, win the trade, but Detroit doesn't do badly:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-big-trade/

From the Tigers perspective, this deal makes some sense, even though they’re giving up the premier player in the trade. Scherzer is a terrific arm, ranking 44th on my trade value series. He’s a quality pitcher who has five years left of team control, giving the Tigers a frontline starter on the cheap who will be in Detroit for the foreseeable future. Jackson should be a decent player, though not a star, and could hold down center field for the league minimum. Schlereth and Coke strengthen the bullpen.

The Tigers aren’t as good today as they were yesterday, but they did manage to shed some payroll and still have a premium young player under team control for significant years. I’d rather have Granderson than Scherzer, but considering the cost differences, this deal makes some sense for Detroit.

Arizona, though… what a mess. Jackson and Kennedy will shore up their rotation, but they aren’t worth a kid as good as Max Scherzer. Jackson’s a mid-rotation starter whose salaries are escalating in arbitration, while Kennedy is a back-end starter who missed most of 2009. They didn’t get better, they didn’t save money, and they didn’t get younger. This move is just not a good one for the D’Backs, unless there’s another impressive piece going to Arizona that hasn’t been reported.

[OzzyKP]

Yea, I don't lament a swap of Jackson for Scherzer. But dumping Granderson for any reason other than cutting payroll is absurd. Which of course brings up the other question, if the team wanted to cut payroll why did they give Ordonez those extra innings last season triggering his extra pay this year? That seems like a less painful way to shed dollars.

[Stuie]

Michael Taylor (who they dealt for former #1 pick Brett Wallace).

I had the pleasure of seeing Michael Taylor play both at Reading and Lehigh Valley. He is going to be good - REAL good. Toronto should have kept him. Heck, the Phillies should have kept him. Then again, I haven't seen Dominic Brown play yet (the outfielder the Phillies did keep), so I can't really compare them.

And yes, the Phils are claiming "budget" as the reason for not keeping both Halladay and Lee. Too bad - that would have been an amazing top of the rotation (nothing against Cole Hamels - he'll be back to form this coming season).

[Arrian]

Well, it could be they simply couldn't afford to pay both Lee and Halladay for even just one year.

Possible, but I find that unlikely. Lee makes $8MM next year, right? That's not a whole lot of money for the Phillies, especially considering their current run of success.

Regarding the prospects DET got...

The key is Scherzer. If he stays healthy, the Tigers may make out well here. He's got a great arm, but everybody is worried that he'll blow out his arm (dubious mechanics). Edwin Jackson may have been at the peak of his value. Then again, maybe some of that improvement in command is real. The move to the NL might be good for him too.

Austin Jackson is a solid prospect but realistically if he ever gets as good as Curtis Granderson is right now, I'll be absolutely shocked. He plays a good CF and hits for average. He hasn't shown much power at all, and strikes out a lot for a guy with little power. Scouts see power potential in him, but it's all projection at this point.

Trading Granderson to save money is a bit odd, considering that he's not overpaid. But of course, had he been overpaid you don't get prospects for him. Nobody will take the bad contracts off the Tigers hands, at least not until somebody gets desperate mid-season and manages to convince themselves that [insert overpaid Tiger here] can help them down the stretch.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

My bad, Lee is set to make $9MM next year. Not that that's a huge difference.

Reading up some more about the Phils payroll situation entering the offseason, I suppose it's possible that they needed to offload some money in order to pay Halladay.

If so, however, why not trade Joe Blanton? He's a useful guy, so there would be a number of teams would be interested. If it's a straight salary dump, you don't get prospects back (other than the famed PTBNL), it's true. But then the haul from SEA for Lee was underwhelming. Lee >> Blanton.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

I had the pleasure of seeing Michael Taylor play both at Reading and Lehigh Valley. He is going to be good - REAL good. Toronto should have kept him. Heck, the Phillies should have kept him. Then again, I haven't seen Dominic Brown play yet (the outfielder the Phillies did keep), so I can't really compare them.

Toronto, OTOH, has a good young OFers by the score already (Lind and Snider being the future). Makes more sense for them to pick up a great 1B/3B prospect in Wallace to take over for Rolen or Overbay who are both in their 30s.

And yes, the Phils are claiming "budget" as the reason for not keeping both Halladay and Lee. Too bad - that would have been an amazing top of the rotation (nothing against Cole Hamels - he'll be back to form this coming season).

If I was the Phils, I would have swallowed the extra $9 mil this year, even if you were to lose Lee, based on how amazing the team would have been in 2010. After all, in order to potentially beat the Yankees or Red Sox in the WS, you want all the pitching help you can find.

[OzzyKP]

Possible, but I find that unlikely. Lee makes $8MM next year, right? That's not a whole lot of money for the Phillies, especially considering their current run of success.

Regarding the prospects DET got...

The key is Scherzer. If he stays healthy, the Tigers may make out well here. He's got a great arm, but everybody is worried that he'll blow out his arm (dubious mechanics). Edwin Jackson may have been at the peak of his value. Then again, maybe some of that improvement in command is real. The move to the NL might be good for him too.

Austin Jackson is a solid prospect but realistically if he ever gets as good as Curtis Granderson is right now, I'll be absolutely shocked. He plays a good CF and hits for average. He hasn't shown much power at all, and strikes out a lot for a guy with little power. Scouts see power potential in him, but it's all projection at this point.

Trading Granderson to save money is a bit odd, considering that he's not overpaid. But of course, had he been overpaid you don't get prospects for him. Nobody will take the bad contracts off the Tigers hands, at least not until somebody gets desperate mid-season and manages to convince themselves that [insert overpaid Tiger here] can help them down the stretch.

-Arrian

Yea, exactly. I think I saw Granderson is only making $5 mil next year. Considering they let Ordonez' $18 mil option vest, it is really upsetting that they let Grandy go. $5 mil for an All-Star? Seems like a good deal to me.

I'm sure I wasn't alone in expecting him to stick around and be like a less talented Al Kaline.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Kaline? Granderson and Kaline are different types of players. According to Bill James' Similarity Scores, a better comparison, through age 28, would be Kirk Gibson (who is 2nd in the list to Bobby Higgenson, but I think you'd like Gibson better).