Weekly Draft: Einstein Observations. Discussions Go Here.

[SlowwHand]

C A.J. Pierzynski (19)
1B Carlos Delgado (10)
2B Ian Kinsler (1)
3B Edwin Encarnacion (11)
SS Jimmy Rollins (2)
OF Carlos Quentin (3)
OF Matt Holliday (5)
OF Corey Hart (9)
Util Randy Winn (14)

SP Josh Beckett (6)
SP A.J. Burnett (7)
SP Matt Cain (12)
RP Jonathan Papelbon (4)
RP Francisco Rodriquez (8)
P Carlos Zambrano (13)
P Justin Duchscherer (16)

BN Chris Young OF (15)
BN Willy Taveras (17)
BN Mike Gonzalez (18)
BN Adam LaRoche (20)
BN Marco Scutaro (21)
BN Oliver Pérez (22)

[Imran Siddiqui]

I keep my roster on Google Documents

C - Mike Napoli LAA (13)
1B - Derrek Lee ChC (9)
2B - Dustin Pedroia BOS (2)
3B - Evan Longoria TB (3)
SS - Jose Reyes NYM (1)
OF - Alfonso Soriano ChC (4)
OF - Nick Markakis BAL (5)
OF - Matt Kemp LAD (7)
U - Lastings Milledge WAS (15)

SP - Roy Oswalt HOU (6)
SP - Felix Hernandez SEA (8)
SP - Adam Wainwright StL (11)
RP - Kerry Wood CLE (10)
RP - Matt Capps PIT (12)
P - Matt Garza TB (14)
P - Eric Bedard SEA (16)

BN - Gil Meche KC SP (17)
BN - James Loney LAD 1B (18)
BN - Delmon Young MIN OF (19)
BN -
BN -
BN -

[OzzyKP]

Thanks for waiting the full 24 hours. Interesting discussion on Capy's pick. I spoiled all the predictions and went for Thome. I know he needs OF, & RP, but based on my own assessment (no doubt flawed) he seemed to be the best hitter available. I strongly considered going for him myself over Chris Davis, but decided to put my fate entirely in the hands of ESPN's 2009 projections... *shrug*

Either way, I don't see why ESPN and Yahoo both rank Thome so low when his stats seem really good to me. Even ESPN's 2009 projected stats for Thome seem much better than other available hitters. Considering his good 2008 stats, and good projected 2009 stats, I just don't get the low ranking for him. But.. pretending that I actually know something about fantasy baseball, I went for him.

[SlowwHand]

Thome was a decent pick. Good numbers.

[Berzerker]

I dont mind the Arod injury, I'm actually glad they're doin it now. If they played the season and slipped out of contention I'd lose Arod when I need him most - the stretch run. This way he's out till late May or early June and I have him when it counts

knock on wood

[Berzerker]

C Victor Martinez CLE (7)
1B Lance Berkman HOU (2)
2B Mike Fontenot CHI (17)
3B Alex Rodriguez NYY (1)
SS Rafael Furcal LAD (3)
OF Nate McLouth PITT (6)
OF Raul Ibanez PHI (8)
OF Nelson Cruz TEX (11)
UT Mike Lowell BOS (18)

SP Jake Peavy SD (5)
SP Randy Johnson SF (10)
SP David Price TB (12)
RP Manuel Rivera NYY (4)
RP Brian Fuentes LAA (9)
P Chad Qualls AZ (14)
P Jason Motte STL (20)

BN Matt Wieters C BAL (13)
BN Chris Carpenter SP STL (15)
BN Tommy Hanson SP ATL (16)
BN Jerry Hairston UT CIN (19)
BN Jordan Zimmerman SP WAS (21)
BN

[OzzyKP]

C - Chris Iannetta C COL (12)
1B - Mark Teixeira 1B NYY (2)
2B - Robinson Canó 2B NYY (13)
3B - Aubrey Huff 1B/3B BAL (4)
SS - Stephen Drew SS ARI (8)
OF - Magglio Ordóñez OF DET (5)
OF - Curtis Granderson OF DET (6)
OF - Bobby Abreu OF LAA (7)
UT - Chris Davis 1B/3B TEX (10)

SP - CC Sabathia SP NYY (1)
SP - Ervin Santana SP LAA (3)
SP - Yovani Gallardo SP MIL (9)
RP - Huston Street RP COL (14)
RP - Frank Francisco RP TEX (16)
P - Kevin Slowey SP MIN (11)
P - Justin Verlander SP DET (15)

BN - Vernon Wells OF TOR (17)
BN - Placido Polanco 2B DET (18)
BN - Andy Sonnanstine SP TB (19)
BN - Felipe López 2B,3B,SS,OF ARI (20)
BN - Tony Pena RP ARI (21)
BN - Chris Snyder C ARI (22)

[OzzyKP]

For Capybaras


C - Joe Mauer C MIN (4)
1B - Ryan Howard 1B PHI (1)
2B - Jose López 1B,2B SEA (8)
3B - Jorge Cantú 1B/3B FLA (6)
SS - Jhonny Peralta SS CLE (7)
OF - Vladimir Guerrero OF LAA (2)
OF - Ichiro Suzuki OF SEA (5)
OF - Jay Bruce OF CIN (14)
U - Jim Thome Util CWS (10)

SP - Chien-Ming Wang SP NYY (3)
SP - Zack Greinke SP KC (9)
SP - Ted Lilly SP CHC (11)
RP - Matt Thornton RP CWS (13)
RP - Troy Percival RP TB (15)
P - Scott Baker SP MIN (12)
P - Joel Hanrahan RP/SP WAS (16)

BN - Orlando Cabrera SS OAK (17)
BN - Jeremy Guthrie SP BAL (18)
BN - Cameron Maybin OF FLA (19)
BN - Rickie Weeks 2B MIL (20)
BN - Melvin Mora 3B BAL (21)
BN -

[snoopy369]

Thanks for waiting the full 24 hours. Interesting discussion on Capy's pick. I spoiled all the predictions and went for Thome. I know he needs OF, & RP, but based on my own assessment (no doubt flawed) he seemed to be the best hitter available. I strongly considered going for him myself over Chris Davis, but decided to put my fate entirely in the hands of ESPN's 2009 projections... *shrug*

Either way, I don't see why ESPN and Yahoo both rank Thome so low when his stats seem really good to me. Even ESPN's 2009 projected stats for Thome seem much better than other available hitters. Considering his good 2008 stats, and good projected 2009 stats, I just don't get the low ranking for him. But.. pretending that I actually know something about fantasy baseball, I went for him.

Low ranked because:
1. Default rankings assume AVG not OBP. Thome has a decent OBP but not as good AVG.
2. Thome is old and probably won't have nearly as many ABs this year (500 at most), and has an enhanced injury risk even at DH. Also, his power #s will certainly decrease.
3. Thome only qualifies at UTIL and thus is less flexible.

Not that I'm saying he was a poor pick but that's why he's ranked low on the default rankings. Chris Davis was definitely a better pick (and was on my list).

[Imran Siddiqui]

3. Thome only qualifies at UTIL and thus is less flexible.

That's the main reason I'd rank Thome low. I hate that limitation.

[OzzyKP]

Since I'm a big nerd, I did a bit of analysis on our picks so far. I took the order we picked everyone and compared it to the order ESPN projected each player to be taken at. The chart isn't necessarily easy to read, but the number after the team is the difference between the two ranks. A negative number means one of us picked the player later than expected, a positive number means we reached for the player.

So, depending on how much value we give the projected rankings and value per position, this is how well we are each doing so far:

1. Imran -216
2. EmpFab -84
3. Guy -42
4. Ozzy -14
5. Fistand -7
6. Snoop 22
7. Jdd 72
8. Sloww 79
9. Berz 127
10. Stuie 153
11. EPW 161
12. Capy 450

Poor Capy.


The chart:

ESPN	Pick	Diff	Polytubbie	First		Last		Position	Team
31	4	27	Berz	Alex		Rodriguez		3B	NYY
13	21	-8	Berz	Lance		Berkman		1B	HOU
72	28	44	Berz	Rafael		Furcal		SS	LAD
61	45	16	Berz	Mariano		Rivera		RP	NYY
36	52	-16	Berz	Jake		Peavy		SP	SD
48	69	-21	Berz	Nate		McLouth		OF	PIT
103	76	27	Berz	Victor		Martinez		C	CLE
95	93	2	Berz	Raul		Ibanez		OF	PHI
111	100	11	Berz	Brian		Fuentes		RP	LAA
162	117	45	Berz	Randy		Johnson		SP	SFG
19	6	13	Capy	Ryan		Howard		1B	PHI
45	19	26	Capy	Vladimir	Guerrero			OF	LAA
195	30	165	Capy	Chien-Ming	Wang			SP	NYY
56	43	13	Capy	Joe		Mauer		C	MIN
20	54	-34	Capy	Ichiro		Suzuki		OF	SEA
221	67	154	Capy	Jorge		Cantú		1B/3B	FLA
140	78	62	Capy	Jhonny		Peralta		SS	CLE
144	91	53	Capy	Jose		López		1B,2B	SEA
87	102	-15	Capy	Zack		Greinke		SP	KC
128	115	13	Capy	Jim		Thome		Util	CWS
2	1	1	EmpFab	Albert		Pujols		1B	StL
24	24	0	EmpFab	Carlos		Beltran		OF	NYM
27	25	2	EmpFab	Brandon		Webb		SP	ARI
37	48	-11	EmpFab	Jason		Bay		OF	BOS
33	49	-16	EmpFab	Carl		Crawford		OF	TB
71	72	-1	EmpFab	Geovany		Soto		C	CHC
80	73	7	EmpFab	Chad		Billingsly		SP	LAD
64	96	-32	EmpFab	Francisco	Liriano			SP	MIN
63	97	-34	EmpFab	Alexei		Ramirez		2B	CWS
16	9	7	EPW	Chase		Utley		2B	PHI
8	16	-8	EPW	Johan		Santana		SP	NYM
118	33	85	EPW	Ryan		Ludwick		OF	STL
32	40	-8	EPW	Justin		Morneau		1B	MIN
112	57	55	EPW	Adam		Dunn		1B/OF	WAS
108	64	44	EPW	Rich		Harden		SP	CHC
81	81	0	EPW	Jermaine	Dye			OF	CHW
78	88	-10	EPW	Brad		Lidge		RP	PHI
121	105	16	EPW	Joba		Chamberlain		SP,RP	NYY
92	112	-20	EPW	Garrett		Atkins		1B,3B	Col
7	7	0	Fistand	Miguel		Cabrera		1B/3B	DET
5	18	-13	Fistand	Ryan		Braun		OF	MIL
41	31	10	Fistand	B.J.		Upton		OF	TB
65	42	23	Fistand	David		Ortiz		UT	BOS
38	55	-17	Fistand	Brian		Roberts		2B	BAL
46	66	-20	Fistand	John		Lackey		SP	LAA
44	79	-35	Fistand	Alex		Rios		OF	TOR
126	90	36	Fistand	Jose		Valverde		RP	HOU
142	103	39	Fistand	Javier		Vazquez		SP	ATL
84	114	-30	Fistand	Joey		Votto		1B	CIN
11	10	1	Guy	Tim		Lincecum		SP	SFG
23	15	8	Guy	Roy		Halladay		SP	TOR
12	34	-22	Guy	Carlos		Lee		OF	HOU
49	39	10	Guy	Chipper		Jones		3B	ATL
74	58	16	Guy	Cliff		Lee		SP	CLE
47	63	-16	Guy	Brian		McCann		C	ATL
58	82	-24	Guy	Adrian		Gonzalez		1B	SD
137	87	50	Guy	Ricky		Nolasco		SP	FLA
62	106	-44	Guy	Jacoby		Ellsbury		OF	BOS
90	111	-21	Guy	Michael		Young		SS	TEX
4	5	-1	Imran	Jose		Reyes		SS	NYM
14	20	-6	Imran	Dustin		Pedroia		2B	BOS
29	29	0	Imran	Evan		Longoria		3B	TB
15	44	-29	Imran	Alfonso		Soriano		OF	CHC
21	53	-32	Imran	Nick		Markakis		OF	BAL
43	68	-25	Imran	Roy		Oswalt		SP	HOU
30	77	-47	Imran	Matt		Kemp		OF	LAD
59	92	-33	Imran	Felix		Hernandez		SP	SEA
55	101	-46	Imran	Derrek		Lee		1B	ChC
119	116	3	Imran	Kerry		Wood		RP	CLE
1	2	-1	Jdd	Hanley		Ramirez		SS	FLA
18	23	-5	Jdd	Josh		Hamilton		OF	TEX
22	26	-4	Jdd	Prince		Fielder		1B	MIL
34	47	-13	Jdd	Brandon		Phillips		2B	CIN
53	50	3	Jdd	Russel		Martin		C	LAD
75	71	4	Jdd	Joakim		Soria		RP	KC
102	74	28	Jdd	Scott		Kazmir		SP	TB
165	95	70	Jdd	Edinson		Volquez		SP	CIN
91	98	-7	Jdd	Carlos		Marmol		RP	CHC
116	119	-3	Jdd	Bobby		Jenks		RP	CWS
17	12	5	Ozzy	CC		Sabathia		SP	NYY
10	13	-3	Ozzy	Mark		Teixeira		1B	NYY
70	36	34	Ozzy	Ervin		Santana		SP	LAA
88	37	51	Ozzy	Aubrey		Huff		1B/3B	BAL
52	60	-8	Ozzy	Magglio		Ordóñez		OF	DET
50	61	-11	Ozzy	Curtis		Granderson		OF	DET
60	84	-24	Ozzy	Bobby		Abreu		OF	LAA
82	85	-3	Ozzy	Stephen		Drew		SS	ARI
68	108	-40	Ozzy	Chris		Davis		1B,3B	TEX
94	109	-15	Ozzy	Yovani		Gallardo		SP	MIL
25	8	17	Sloww	Ian		Kinsler		2B	TEX
9	17	-8	Sloww	Jimmy		Rollins		SS	PHI
69	32	37	Sloww	Carlos		Quentin		OF	CWS
51	41	10	Sloww	Jonathan	Papelbon			RP	BOS
26	56	-30	Sloww	Matt		Holliday		OF	OAK
85	65	20	Sloww	Josh		Beckett		SP	BOS
125	80	45	Sloww	A.J.		Burnett		SP	NYY
86	89	-3	Sloww	Francisco	Rodriquez			RP	NYM
67	104	-37	Sloww	Corey		Hart		OF	MIL
141	113	28	Sloww	Carlos		Delgado		1B	NYM
6	11	-5	Snoop	Grady		Sizemore		OF	CLE
28	14	14	Snoop	Manny		Ramirez		OF	LAD
40	35	5	Snoop	Dan		Haren		SP	ARI
42	38	4	Snoop	Aramis		Ramirez		3B	CHC
104	59	45	Snoop	Dan		Uggla		2B	FLA
54	62	-8	Snoop	James		Shields		SP	TB
98	83	15	Snoop	Ryan		Doumit		C	PIT
77	86	-9	Snoop	Carlos		Pena		1B	TB
105	107	-2	Snoop	Jonathon	Broxton			RP	LAD
73	110	-37	Snoop	Torii		Hunter		OF	LAA
3	3	0	Stuie	David		Wright		3B	NYM
35	22	13	Stuie	Cole		Hamels		SP	PHI
39	27	12	Stuie	Kevin		Youkilis		1B	BOS
66	46	20	Stuie	Derek		Jeter		SS	NYY
57	51	6	Stuie	Joe		Nathan		RP	MIN
180	70	110	Stuie	Mark		DeRosa		2B	CLE
83	75	8	Stuie	Shane		Victorino		OF	PHI
76	94	-18	Stuie	Johnny		Damon		OF	NYY
97	99	-2	Stuie	Daisuke		Matsuzaka		SP	BOS
122	118	4	Stuie	Derek		Lowe		SP	ATL

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think it helps that I also use ESPN as well as Yahoo in planning out my picks .

Very cool analysis though

[Berzerker]

yup, Ozzy's addicted

and most of Capy's deficit is with wang and cantu so thats not too bad, both may not live up to those picks but I dont expect them to finish that low either.

[OzzyKP]

yup, Ozzy's addicted

and most of Capy's deficit is with wang and cantu so thats not too bad, both may not live up to those picks but I dont expect them to finish that low either.

I take full responsibility for the Cantu pick. He said he wanted to fill his infield, and based on my patented Ozzy-analysis I thought he was the best available at that time. I based it all on 2008 Yahoo stats. I've since discovered ESPN's projected 09 stats (which is kinda cool). Based on what I saw at the time though he seemed like the best pick I had available.

Anyhow... I have too damn many spread sheets. Haha.

[Berzerker]

well Ozzy, tell Capy we'll all have some time to make changes to our teams before the season starts. But it requires research and paying attention to spring training, I'm sure there will be plenty of free agents who out-do players we all have.

Once we start both of you need to get educated on making roster changes and adding and dropping players. For one, the waiver wire priority number we all have is the opposite of the draft order, so if you have a good number (1 is best) try to save it for when a hot prospect comes up thru yahoo or someone you wanted is dropped by another manager. You'll get 2 days before yahoo takes the lowest priority number offered up in exchange for the player.