NFL - Are you Ready For Some Football?! - Wild Card Round!

[Imran Siddiqui]

He's also averaged a hundred yards a game. I'd take a 60 percent LT over a 100 Adrian Peterson.

You are the craziest ****ing person ever.

[Ben Kenobi]

LT has scored 72 points this year. AP, despite being healthy only had 66.

Therefore, LT > AP.

LT also had 50 percent more touchdowns playing on a non-playoff Chargers, at the same point in his career as AP. I watched him last game, I really don't get the hype.

[Imran Siddiqui]

AP's QB was Tavaris Jackson and Gus Ferotte (ie, hello 8 man fronts every game).

LT's QB was Phillips Rivers (ie, respect the pass too)

Therefore AP > LT

[Lord Avalon]

66 > 43.2

Therefore 100% AP > 60% LT.

[Supr49er]

AP is scary good. He just needs to work on his fumbling.

[-Jrabbit]

I tend to agree that San Diego will stick with LT next year. It may not be the wisest course when you look at aging RBs, but LT could well be that exceptional Emmit/Payton type guy.

It's unlikely that Sproles would bring a "packet" of draft picks. No doubt San Diego would prefer to repeat what they did with Turner -- hang onto him as insurance for now and let it play out. Unfortunately, they don't have that luxury this time. Sproles is finishing a contract year and has indicated that he'd like to test the free agent waters. Given Turner's success and Sproles' upside, I expect him to draw big money, long term interest.

That means the Chargers will have to either pony up or let him walk. My guess is they will do the latter, going with Hester and LT in '09. Of course, all this will be heavily influenced by the remainder of the playoffs. Just my guess. It's really too soon to tell.

[Ben Kenobi]

AP's QB was Tavaris Jackson and Gus Ferotte (ie, hello 8 man fronts every game).

And LT has never faced an 8 man front?

LT's QB was Phillips Rivers (ie, respect the pass too)

Last game was the first time that any team has respected the Chargers pass over LT. Not coincidentally they nearly set a record for rushing yards. I expect the Steelers to put 8 man fronts again, and challenge Rivers to throw, since that seemed to work for them last time.

Therefore AP > LT

AP has already had half as many fumbles as LT has had in his career.

[Methril]

Shh, DeAngelo Williams is better than both right now. Totally ignored for the MVP award too.

[Imran Siddiqui]

LT doesn't face them nearly as much as AP does.

LT may have been better years ago, but we are talking right now, Ben.

And yes, DeAngelo was better than both this season and it wasn't even close:

http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb

[snoopy369]

AP also faces the Bears twice a year (fumblicious) ... LT faces Denver (), KC ( now), and Oakland (perhaps the best D of the bunch... sadly).

Look at DDVOA - AP faced one ranked seventh in the league (CHI), one ranked twelfth (GB), and 32nd (DET). LT faced OAK (18th), KC (28th), and DEN (31st). All this with a significantly better offense (as you say repeatedly, one of the best QBs in the league, one of the best TEs in the league, two quality WRs, and a third pretty good WR) for LT, compared to absolute **** around AP - one of the worst QBs in the league (23rd in DYAR = Tavaris Jackson, 29th = Gus Frerotte), WRs that scare no-one (Berrian 18th, Wade next at 70th...), and a TE that was good but badly underutilized (2nd in DOVA but less than 600 total yards, and only 59 targets, which is criminal in my opinion).

Basically, LT had the easier schedule, and the better team around him (perhaps excepting the line, but that's very hard to gauge, and I think they had similarly effective lines over the year - SD's was worse at first, better later on. So if AP and LT had similar stats, I'd end up preferring AP.

Of course, AP had far better stats (1 YPC more, and far more total yards), so I don't think the question is particularly interesting.

[Ben Kenobi]

Look at DDVOA - AP faced one ranked seventh in the league (CHI), one ranked twelfth (GB), and 32nd (DET). LT faced OAK (18th), KC (28th), and DEN (31st).

Yes, he should have done better this year, that's for sure, but I think you have to take into account his 13 fumbles dramatically reduce his value as a RB. I think to make an accurate adjustment, you'd have to subtract 50 yards for each turnover. That means you have to take off around 650 yards for AP, to accurately gage his worth to the team.

All this with a significantly better offense (as you say repeatedly, one of the best QBs in the league, one of the best TEs in the league, two quality WRs, and a third pretty good WR) for LT, compared to absolute **** around AP - one of the worst QBs in the league (23rd in DYAR = Tavaris Jackson, 29th = Gus Frerotte), WRs that scare no-one (Berrian 18th, Wade next at 70th...), and a TE that was good but badly underutilized (2nd in DOVA but less than 600 total yards, and only 59 targets, which is criminal in my opinion).

Yes, that is true, and one of the reasons that he's had fewer carries this season. More weapons = ball spread around more. The other thing is that he has still faced 8 man fronts all season. This is why Philip Rivers is not yet as good as Manning or Brees, regardless of what the stats say. Rivers is not considered the primary threat, LT still draws the double team.

Basically, LT had the easier schedule, and the better team around him (perhaps excepting the line, but that's very hard to gauge, and I think they had similarly effective lines over the year - SD's was worse at first, better later on. So if AP and LT had similar stats, I'd end up preferring AP.

For me it's all about the fumbles. I saw the Minnesota offense and was less then impressed. A turnover with that team will absolutely kill you. Part of the problem with Minnesota are the fumbles, and they were lucky to be in such a terrible division as the NFC North.

Of course, AP had far better stats (1 YPC more, and far more total yards), so I don't think the question is particularly interesting.

If you subtract 50 yards per fumble, then the YPC is substantially worse.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yes, he should have done better this year, that's for sure, but I think you have to take into account his 13 fumbles dramatically reduce his value as a RB. I think to make an accurate adjustment, you'd have to subtract 50 yards for each turnover. That means you have to take off around 650 yards for AP, to accurately gage his worth to the team.

You can use your bat**** crazy stats which have no basis in reality other than your arbitrary wishes, or we could actually... oh, look at the footballoutsiders link I posted that shows while AP isn't super-amazing, he's better than LT. And yes, it accounts for fumbles, which is why AP is an average RB instead of up there with Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams and Brandon Jacobs and the sort.

[Ben Kenobi]

If you are going to use those stats you have to adjust them.

You would have to take out LT's running stats against those teams, and just consider their stats against other teams.

Otherwise it's the same as strength of schedule, good teams will have weak strength of schedule, while bad teams will have harder ones.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I'm actually fairly sure that the folks at football outsiders adjust the rushing stats plenty. They aren't rank amateurs like you.

[Ben Kenobi]

Thanks for answering the question Imran.

Much appreciated.

If you are going to pimp stats you should at least be able to understand them.