MLB - 2008 All Star Break and Beyond!

[-Jrabbit]

AB+BB=503 for him.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Interesting trade by the Sox... I don't mind losing Swisher, though his (positive) affect on the clubhouse is not to be underestimated. I imagine this means more playing time for Brian Anderson, Jerry Owens, or ... random guy signed by or traded for by Kenny Williams. More speed

Also interesting from that article:

Nick Swisher, White Sox .219
Daric Barton, A's .226
Michael Bourn, Astros .229
Jack Cust, A's .231
Mark Ellis, A's .233
Rickie Weeks, Brewers .234
Kevin Millar, Orioles .234

That's a list of the players with 502+ at bats (qualifying for the batting title) with the lowest batting average. An awful lot of A's or former A's on that list... admittedly some (like Swish) have higher OBP and OPS, but it's still an awful lot of low BA's from the Athletics...

A .332 OBP and .410 SLG makes Swisher more valuable than say, Orlando Cabrera, offensively, who hit .281. Or A.J., who also hit .281.

It's Moneyball, after all, find the players who have been undervalued (low BA, high OBP power hitters).

Cust, for instance, had a GREAT year. He only "batted" .231, but had an OBP of .375 ( - which is usually crazy with that BA) and a SLG of .476. His OPS+ this year was 132, which mind you was better than Dye's or Thome's.

[Imran Siddiqui]

In sad baseball news:

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/

FireJoeMorgan is dead

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
AB+BB=503 for him.

And why would you add in BB to determine qualification for the batting title?

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


A .332 OBP and .410 SLG makes Swisher more valuable than say, Orlando Cabrera, offensively, who hit .281. Or A.J., who also hit .281.

It's Moneyball, after all, find the players who have been undervalued (low BA, high OBP power hitters).

Cust, for instance, had a GREAT year. He only "batted" .231, but had an OBP of .375 ( - which is usually crazy with that BA) and a SLG of .476. His OPS+ this year was 132, which mind you was better than Dye's or Thome's.

I agree that OBP and SLG are important, and more so than BA. I'm just not convinced that BA is *entirely* worthless... and frankly I think the White Sox this year were evidence of this. Plenty of walks (Swish and Thome both very high on the list of walks), reasonably high SLG, but with a guy on 3rd and 2 out, a walk just doesn't help when you need a single... you do, at some point, need people who can actually put the ball into play without getting an out. Swish's .332 OBP certainly makes him a better leadoff hitter than Cabrera (who was a horrid leadoff hitter), but his batting average made him less valuable at actually hitting people in...

[Imran Siddiqui]

We are talking about a team that was 5th in the AL in runs per game:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL_2008.shtml

In a position that they should be according to their OPS+. Their OBP was actually a bit low compared to other successful AL teams, but their SLG was 2nd highest. In terms of BBs, the were no where near the two top teams (the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox) in that measure.

And as I've made the point before that OBP is the stat that correlates the closest to scoring runs.

So apparently there were plenty of folk getting hits when players were on base for the White Sox. And Hell, getting a single with 2 outs when there isn't a guy on base may net you the same result .

[-Jrabbit]

Discussing baseball statistics with Imran is remarkably like discussing religion with Ben Kenobi.

[snoopy369]

Oh, don't get me wrong. I'm well aware that OBP and SLG correlate better with runs than batting average. That does not mean that batting average does not correlate at all with scoring runs, however...

They scored runs largely by the solo homer, unfortunately... which you'd think would not be the case, with such a high OBP. But, there you have it... and that's precisely why there slugging percentage was so high.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
Discussing baseball statistics with Imran is remarkably like discussing religion with Ben Kenobi.

Nah, Imran is much more reasonable ... though his belief in the Sabremetric philosophy does verge on religion at times

"There is but one god, and Bill James is his prophet"

[Imran Siddiqui]

They scored runs largely by the solo homer, unfortunately... which you'd think would not be the case, with such a high OBP.

I've already stated that it wasn't really a high OBP. Their .332 team OBP was behind in the American League: Texas (.354), Boston (.358), Minnesota (.340), Detroit (.340), Cleveland (.339), New York (.342), Baltimore (.333), and Tampa Bay (.340).

That means they were 9th in the American League in On Base Percentage.

So, the basic assumption is off.

And yes, BA does correlate as well, and BA formulates a part of OBP. The argument against BA is simply that it is incomplete, not that it is completely useless (though compared to OBP, it may be close ).

[snoopy369]

Right... and my argument is that high OBP and low BA, when taken to this much of an extreme, is not a formula for success, particularly in the playoffs (where you typically face better pitchers less likely to walk you, and less likely to give up dingers). Heck, some significant elements (like doubles) actually are statistically correlated NEGATIVELY with playoff success... That one threw me for a loop when I saw it, but yet, it seems to be true.

[Imran Siddiqui]

But you to have a high OBP first . Usually that corresponds to high BA, but not always (ie, Cust).

As for the playoffs, they invariably end up being a crap shoot. For example, the Phillies had a .255 BA, about 10th in the NL (their OBP wasn't all that hot either). Though their SLG allowed them to tie for second in R/G in the NL.

And in the AL, the Rays with their .260 BA was the worst among AL playoff teams (though their OBP was 2nd highest, after Boston). It was more extreme than the White Sox (who had a .263 BA and .332 OBP, compared to the Rays with a .260 BA and .340 OBP) So how much of a BA/OBP extreme are we talking about .

[Stuie]

My guess is that Imran will approve of the NL MVP selection for the first time in several years.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081117&content_id=3681885&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[Imran Siddiqui]

The damned voters actually got one right!

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL_2008.shtml

Look at Adjusted OPS+ numbers.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Stuie, can you even argue this selection?

I mean, Pujols' 190 OPS+ is the highest in his career and tied for the 93rd best season of all time. He also destroyed the field (including 2nd placer Chipper Jones) in Adjusted Batting Runs, Offensive Win%, Batting Wins, VORP (Chipper finished 3rd here to Hanley Ramirez and Pujols), and Equivalent Average.