MLB - 2008 All Star Break and Beyond!

[Fistandantilus]

Originally posted by snoopy369
Do you know anything about WHO these teams are playing? That matters somewhat more than home/away. This isn't College Football...

Read this ... http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...trength-of-sch It's a month old (July 2), but still relevant.

Yup, and after that the Rays played a 'largely terrible team' (aka Cle) and guess what? They've been swept in a 4 game series.

Can we say the same you did about pythagorean wins?

"Theoretical wins based on strength of schedule are all well and good, but ACTUAL wins are rather more important... "

[snoopy369]

They're still in first place aren't they?

[Ben Kenobi]

I stand by my analysis. I think the Rays finishing at .561 is just about right.

11 of the Rays' 62 games are against KC, CLE, and SEA (all largely terrible teams), and of their away games,

CLE swept them, and they've already lost one against KC. Away from home, any team can beat the Rays.

only CHW, DET, and BOS/NYY are particularly bothersome (13 games in all).

Most are with their homestand.

The remainder are against the terrible AL West, excepting the LAA (who come to TB), against the weak teams in the AL Central (CLE, KC), and against the weaker teams in their division (BAL, TOR).

The 8 games between Rays/Jays will be crucial. At home, I think Toronto should take them. This last series, they actually outscored the Rays, which tells me that the Jays aren't a gimme for the Rays.

That LA is coming to the Rays is worse, because it means that the Rays are likely to lose most of that series, and it costs them some home games.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yankees going crazy!

CLE swept them, and they've already lost one against KC. Away from home, any team can beat the Rays.

Away from home any team can beat the Yankees or Red Sox, who have WORST away records than the Rays.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I stand by my analysis. I think the Rays finishing at .561 is just about right.

That LA is coming to the Rays is worse, because it means that the Rays are likely to lose most of that series, and it costs them some home games.

Stand by whatever you want... you make it clear you don't know anything about baseball with every additional sentence.

That last paragraph makes NO sense at all, for example. Now you're saying it's a BAD thing that the Rays are playing teams at home? WTF? You're just trying to turn everything into a negative, which is a silly tactic when arguing with people who actually know what they are talking about.

The Rays have the easiest schedule in the AL East, and while I certainly won't guarantee anything in that division, they have a very good shot at 1st or 2nd. The Blue Jays will finish fourth in nearly every scenario excepting the Yankees collapsing (which is unlikely but possible). They will not finish in the top two.

At least try to only make one absurd statement at a time, please...

[snoopy369]

On a happier, and more sane, note ... the White Sox have already won two of the seven games they needed to win in the next two weeks to stay safe in the AL Central. Now as long as we can at least hold serve against MIN, we will be in a very happy place come August 10th.

[Ben Kenobi]

Away from home any team can beat the Yankees or Red Sox, who have WORST away records than the Rays.

Some baseball expert!

Yanks....25-23..0.52
Rays.....21-26..0.44
Sox......24-32..0.43

Rays are 2-0, Sox 0-2 so they just swapped positions.

Yanks have an excellent away record.

[Ben Kenobi]

That last paragraph makes NO sense at all, for example. Now you're saying it's a BAD thing that the Rays are playing teams at home? WTF?

I think it's a bad thing that one of the homestands that they are relying on is against such a good team as the Angels.

Say they have 4 away games against the Jays, and 4 home games against the Angels. Would that be better then 4 away games against the Angels and 4 home games against the Jays?

Rather then losing two series, you would win one and lose one.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Some baseball expert!

Yanks....25-23..0.52
Rays.....21-26..0.44
Sox......24-32..0.43

Rays are 2-0, Sox 0-2 so they just swapped positions.

Yanks have an excellent away record.

I didn't account for the last few weeks. The Yanks recent run has really boosted them. Of course those numbers still make your last statement (any team can beat the Rays away from home) because the Sox have a very similar road record.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
I think it's a bad thing that one of the homestands that they are relying on is against such a good team as the Angels.

What about the BoSox relying on a homestand against the White Sox?

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


I think it's a bad thing that one of the homestands that they are relying on is against such a good team as the Angels.

Say they have 4 away games against the Jays, and 4 home games against the Angels. Would that be better then 4 away games against the Angels and 4 home games against the Jays?

Rather then losing two series, you would win one and lose one.

The other teams are playing AT LAA, or are playing them multiple times.

[/bored now]

[SlowwHand]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Yankees going crazy!

CLE swept them, and they've already lost one against KC. Away from home, any team can beat the Rays.

Away from home any team can beat the Yankees or Red Sox, who have WORST away records than the Rays.

Worse. I hate to be a stickler, but the fact remains.
Whether you were wrong or right, the word is worse. ****ing lawyers should know better.

[Arrian]

Toronto has one of the best pitching staffs, and have lost many games by a run or two throughout the season. If their bats wake up...

It's theoretically possible the Jays could sneak in and grab the Wild Card, but I doubt it. They are an excellent pitching team, but "if their bats wake up" is essentially a pipe dream. Their offense is pretty bad, and unlikely to improve.

I don't know what the Jays' schedule looks like from here on out, but I do know that the Yanks have a tough one, with the Rays and Boston having easier ones (they had tougher 1st-half schedules). The Red Sox have a lot of home games, and they're tough at Fenway (hence I'm really happy with 2 out of 3 this weekend ). Plus, the Sox just got Papi back. He'll hit his stride and their offense will improve.

The Rays may fade a bit, but that's a good team. Their offense may be due for some improvement, actually, and that may mitigate any backsliding by the pitchers. I think the Yanks have a good shot at the WC, and a respectable chance at the division (though I think the WC is much more likely). The Yanks have holes, but they're a better team than Toronto.

Add all of that up, and I just don't see Toronto pulling it out. That they have lost a bunch of close games is unfortunate for them, but with most of the season in the books there isn't anything they can do about it. They may play better from here on out in such close games, but I doubt they can do it well enough to catch the multiple teams they would need to catch.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Speaking of Toronto...

Frank Thomas, since being released:

28 games: .319/.417/.516 for the As. Obviously, he missed some time. Even so... think the Jays could've used that production? If JP & Co. were going for it this year, they would've have kicked him to the curb.

The Jays are 10th in the league in OPS, 11th in runs scored. That is unlikely to improve. And hey, didn't they lose McGowan for the year?

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

I think the dirty little secret is that the Blue Jays already knew they were out of it when they let go of Thomas. They may not have been this far behind, but they could see the writing on the wall and felt like building for the future. And Thomas really sucked for them this year.