MLB - 2008 All Star Break and Beyond!

[Deity Dude]

Originally posted by snoopy369
(being swept by KC is extra bad because it's just plain embarassing ...)

Believe me I know, they swept Detroit twice during our lovely start.

[Will9]

Originally posted by snoopy369
(being swept by KC is extra bad because it's just plain embarassing ...)

Unfortunatly true

[Ben Kenobi]

Anyone think the Jays have a chance?

I'm sorry I've never been a Mariners fan.

[snoopy369]

Do you mean Rays? Jays, no. Mariners, no.

Why are you sorry you've never been a Mariners fan, by the way? They suck, and have consistently been one of those teams who brings up good talent and then dumps them when they cost too much, ensuring they don't win the championship (ala Expos, Rangers). More successful than those two teams, mind you, but still, the Marlins are the 'successful' cheap-ass team.

I'd rather be a fan of a team who tries to win and spends money to do it...

[Ben Kenobi]

Do you mean Rays? Jays, no. Mariners, no.

I think the Rays are done. They are only 3 games up on the Yanks, and have shed 20 percentage points on the rest of the field.

Why are you sorry you've never been a Mariners fan

We get all their games broadcasted here because they are supposed to be the local team, despite being 700 miles away.

Even the Twins and the California teams are closer then Toronto.

I'd rather be a fan of a team who tries to win and spends money to do it...

No doubt.

The only reason I think the Jays have a chance is because they are far below their pythagorean wins.

[snoopy369]

The Jays have no shot in the east, nor of the WC. Nobody outside of Toronto, and I suspect not very many people IN toronto, think they have any shot of making the playoffs, short of some sort of major disaster (by that, I mean two of the teams above them are affected by a terrorist activity). Pythagorean wins are all well and good, but ACTUAL wins are rather more important... Toronto is a .500 team, and they are playing .500 ball. Were they in the NL west, they'd be in first. In the AL east, they're screwed.

On the other hand, most knowledgable baseball fans know that TB is actually in a very good position to either win the East or get the WC. They have an amazing farm system, so can trade for talent, and have some guys they may bring up as well. I'll be shocked if the Yankees make the playoffs this year, and I think Aeson would agree with me ...

[Guynemer]

****ing Todd Jones!

[Ben Kenobi]

The Jays have no shot in the east, nor of the WC. Nobody outside of Toronto, and I suspect not very many people IN toronto, think they have any shot of making the playoffs, short of some sort of major disaster (by that, I mean two of the teams above them are affected by a terrorist activity).

Toronto has one of the best pitching staffs, and have lost many games by a run or two throughout the season. If their bats wake up I think they are a match for the Red Sox and the Yankees. They are 8 games back with more then 2 months to play.

The problem with the Devil Rays is that they have the worst record on the road of any of the contenders, worse then Toronto. If they get into another slump, anything can happen.

On the other hand, most knowledgable baseball fans know that TB is actually in a very good position to either win the East or get the WC.

They don't seem quite ready yet. Before the all-star break, it would have seemed ridiculous, but going on a 7 game slide brought them back to the pack. As good as the Rays are I'm not convinced they have what it takes to stave off the Yankees and the Red Sox.

They have 12 more away games then home, starting from this road trip.

25 home games, and 37 away.

So if they play as they have over the season they will go 32-30.

That means to catch them the Jays have to go 40-20, assuming the Rays keep their normal pace. It's helpful though that the Jays have 8 more home games then away games.

The Yanks will have to go 34-28 or .548, which is less then their current pace.

I'll be shocked if the Yankees make the playoffs this year, and I think Aeson would agree with me ...

I never bet against the Yankees making the playoffs. 3 games up at this point is not a safe lead for the WC.

The goal is .561 for the team to catch the Rays. I'm predicting they'll bleed off another 20 points. Boston has a favourable schedule so I expect them to win the east, and the Yankees to take the WC.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by snoopy369
On the other hand, most knowledgable baseball fans know that TB is actually in a very good position to either win the East or get the WC. They have an amazing farm system, so can trade for talent, and have some guys they may bring up as well. I'll be shocked if the Yankees make the playoffs this year, and I think Aeson would agree with me ...

And the hardest part of their schedule was in the 1st half of the season.

[snoopy369]

Do you know anything about WHO these teams are playing? That matters somewhat more than home/away. This isn't College Football...

Read this ... http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...trength-of-sch It's a month old (July 2), but still relevant.

The Rays had the most difficult schedule of the three teams at the top in the East, the Yankees the easiest. 11 of the Rays' 62 games are against KC, CLE, and SEA (all largely terrible teams), and of their away games, only CHW, DET, and BOS/NYY are particularly bothersome (13 games in all). The remainder are against the terrible AL West, excepting the LAA (who come to TB), against the weak teams in the AL Central (CLE, KC), and against the weaker teams in their division (BAL, TOR). Even for a 'struggling road team', not half bad. The Red Sox, on the other hand, play the Yankees 3 times (to TB's two for each of those teams), which helps the Rays a lot (more losses for one or the other); the Sox play the White Sox twice to the Rays' once, as well. The Yankees have the worst of it, though - they play the amazing Angels ten times, six at LA.

Also, the entire MLB is struggling on the road - the MLB home winning percentage is the highest it's been in seventy years (.580); 20-26 is .435, which is above the major league average (.420) for road games. Not as good as their home winning percentage ... but good enough for first in the AL East.

The thing that has to concern the Rays right now is the Yankees' trade for Nady (and Marte, for all he's worth); they need to make at least one move to feel secure in first. I don't know what move that would be - one big question is whether the Pirates are still offering players, for example (like Bay); or the Braves perhaps (Teixeira, but where would he play?); or some other team. It will definitely be interesting to see what the Rays do... you have to think they will really want to win now, since they're similar to the Marlins (good young talent but no money to pay to keep all of them) and need to take advantage of their talent now.

[Imran Siddiqui]

you have to think they will really want to win now, since they're similar to the Marlins (good young talent but no money to pay to keep all of them)

Then again, they've locked up a lot of their young stars to long term deals (but not all).

I think the Rays will try to deal for either Bay, Dunn, or Holliday. Someone who can add a bat out there, even though Gross, Hinske, Floyd, Gomes rotation among RF and DH has been working very well. And you'd have to assume that Crawford will start heating up, or they may acquire someone to take his place.

Rays probably need another starting arm and maybe a bullpen guy (though they've been great this year there). But David Price is coming up from the minors and he may be a good 4th starter (replacing Sonnanstine or Jackson) after Kazmir, Shields, and Garza. The bullpen has really been bolstered by the appearance of Balfour on the scene who has been lights out and Percival seems to have his injury troubles behind him for the moment.

[snoopy369]

I'm really hoping Holliday goes to the midwest... ... but yes, he could go to Tampa as well.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Interesting... I just read that Nady has a .360 BABIP so far this season. That will most DEFINITELY go down (and probably quite a bit), so the Pirates appeared to sell high there.

[SlowwHand]

The Rangers have played the least home games of any AL team. That helps.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Unfortunately I don't think the Rangers can catch the Angels who have been on FIRE!