NFL - Are You Ready For Some Football?!! - PLAYOFFS

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Koyaanisqatsi


So 7 picks vs. 3 touchdowns and a drop of 30+ points in QB rating vs. the regular season is a shining example of stepping up his game for the playoffs?

Passing touchdowns don't matter in the least if you're scoring rushing touchdowns by the boatload. He torched New England for almost 400 yards and hung 38 points on them. If you want to go "lol we held him to one touchdown LOL," be my guest.

[Ming]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
This is the same BS that was used to call Peyton Manning a playoff choker. Then he wins the Superbowl and all is forgiven. What a crock!

Not all is forgiven... On ESPN radio, they were again talking about Payton's lack of ability in big games. They credited his one SB to the old, "get enough chances and you eventually have to win" while blasting away at all the chances he has blown.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Passing touchdowns don't matter in the least if you're scoring rushing touchdowns by the boatload. He torched New England for almost 400 yards and hung 38 points on them. If you want to go "lol we held him to one touchdown LOL," be my guest.

QFT

Hey, I'm sure Peyton doesn't mind being held to less TDs, if that means he gets Addai (or in the past James & Rhodes) a short rushing TD.

I mean it really gets hard to blame Peyton for, say, things his defense does.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
I mean it really gets hard to blame Peyton for, say, things his defense does.

I know, that's what I'm trying to say...

But hey, we can add in rushing touchdowns if you want. The Colts offense scored 7 touchdowns in their 4 playoff games last year, three passing and four rushing. Peyton threw 7 picks. Is a 1:1 TD:INT ratio really what we're looking for from our playoff heroes these days? Particularly after you give him credit for the offensive output for the entire team?

[Imran Siddiqui]

In the two big games, the Conference Championship and the SuperBowl, Manning had 1 interception each and the offense scored 6 TDs (I could Saturday's fumble recovery as an offensive TD because Saturday is the center and it was as a Colt player was going in). Hardly the mark of a choker.

And of course Manning gets more credit for the offensive output of his team, he basically calls the plays!

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Koyaanisqatsi

I know, that's what I'm trying to say...

But hey, we can add in rushing touchdowns if you want. The Colts offense scored 7 touchdowns in their 4 playoff games last year, three passing and four rushing.

First of all, they scored 8 touchdowns, one on a goofy Dominic Rhodes fumble recovered by Jeff Saturday on a goal-line dive. Sure, it's not particularly impressive to score that way, but it really doesn't have anything to do with Peyton's ability to drive down the field at will. (He was 3/3 for 46 yards on the drive.)

Second, if you pile up the field goals, and you're playing against teams that are ridiculously stacked on defense and awful on offense, sure, two offensive touchdowns per game is fine. You're hammering at the touchdown/interception thing because it's the only limited set of data that proves the conclusion that you already had in mind when you went looking for evidence.

A look at all the facts gives a much better picture of how the Colts actually played that postseason.
1. Only one of the Colts' four games was close, mostly because the Colts scored nearly every drive. Many of the scores were field goals, which an obviously biased examination of touchdowns deliberately avoids for no good reason.
2. Manning threw for 350 yards and put up 38 points in that game. It was only close because the defense was allowing nearly 7 yards per carry against the Patriots' running back tandem.
3. The Bears and Ravens were the best two defenses in the NFL that year, and probably the two best defenses since the 2002 Bucs. Their offenses were crap. It was easy to skate by them with 15-6 type wins. (The Patriots beat the Bears 17-13 and nobody complained.)
4. The Superbowl was played in the pouring rain, causing fumbles and dropped passes all over the place.
5. Two of Manning's interceptions were ripped out of receivers' hands, and another one was because Harrison ran the wrong route.

I like all of the Colts players equally, so I don't feel any need to needlessly detract from some players in order to boost others. The offensive supporting cast played poorly in 2006, and the defense played out of its mind. Manning, who's essentially a robot, played exactly the same as he always does.

Honestly, I can't believe that people are still trying to beat the "Manning isn't clutch" drum after last year. Brady's season ended with him tossing a game-ending interception, and Manning's season ended with him hoisting the Lombardi trophy. But people can be extremely selective in their memories, especially if they're obnoxious bandwagon fans. An objective measure, though, doesn't give nearly the same impression that selective memories do.

The best measure of quarterback performance, without going into a more complicated statistic like DVOA, is adjusted yards per pass. It considers an interception to be worth negative 45 yards, the average cost of a turnover, and it considers a touchdown to be worth 10 yards, because getting the final yard from the 1 to the endzone on a play is worth about 10 yards of field position. For reference purposes, Kyle Orton's got a career mark of 4.0 adjusted yards per pass, Dan Marino has a career mark of 6.5. Joe Montana is the all-time greatest in the postseason, at 7.2.

Here are the results for Manning and Brady.

Manning:
(3897 + (10 * 21) - (45 * 17)) / 523 = 6.4

Brady:
(3479 + (10 * 23) - (45 * 9)) / 514 = 6.4

I think that just about says it all.

[Ben Kenobi]

Well said Jag.

Manning is a hell of a QB and Brady couldn't even hold his jock.

The big thing for me is that Manning calls his own plays. That to me makes him the QB of his generation over Brady. Brady's a fine QB but hardly the best ever.

As happy as I am the Chargers advanced the Colts have always been classy that's what makes them different from most of the Pats fans. They understand what mutual respect is about, and have respected the Chargers since Schottenheimer made us good again. The Pats? They are still working on the concept of respect for the Colts who have been their mortal enemies for years now let alone these upstart Chargers who've never won a SB.

I'm hearing how it's 'impossible' for Gods team to lose because they are blessed to have the almighty Brady, I could quote you numerous 'experts' who say it's so.

[Imran Siddiqui]

True dat. I think when Manning is all said and done (and has all of Favre's records), he'll make a fine Offensive Coordinator.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Originally posted by Jaguar
Second, if you pile up the field goals, and you're playing against teams that are ridiculously stacked on defense and awful on offense, sure, two offensive touchdowns per game is fine. You're hammering at the touchdown/interception thing because it's the only limited set of data that proves the conclusion that you already had in mind when you went looking for evidence.

Because the goal of every offensive juggernaut is to rack up the field goals. And I believe I threw in another bit of data before that nobody has bothered to address.

A look at all the facts gives a much better picture of how the Colts actually played that postseason.
1. Only one of the Colts' four games was close, mostly because the Colts scored nearly every drive. Many of the scores were field goals, which an obviously biased examination of touchdowns deliberately avoids for no good reason.

Or...because field goals are not really the goal of an offensive possession maybe? There are times when they are, at the end of games and such, but five field goals does not a dominating offensive performance make.

2. Manning threw for 350 yards and put up 38 points in that game. It was only close because the defense was allowing nearly 7 yards per carry against the Patriots' running back tandem.

It was only close because half the Pats locker room had the flu and ran out of gas in the second half. But in any case, I'm looking at the entire postseason, not cherry-picking data from a specific game.

3. The Bears and Ravens were the best two defenses in the NFL that year, and probably the two best defenses since the 2002 Bucs. Their offenses were crap. It was easy to skate by them with 15-6 type wins. (The Patriots beat the Bears 17-13 and nobody complained.)

So the goal of an offense is not so much to score touchdowns as to score just enough points to win? Ah, redemption for the '01 Pats!

4. The Superbowl was played in the pouring rain, causing fumbles and dropped passes all over the place.

.....so? Not every team can rack up stats in the comfort of a dome.

5. Two of Manning's interceptions were ripped out of receivers' hands, and another one was because Harrison ran the wrong route.

Ah, but Peyton is master of everything that happens on the field, or else he wouldn't get credit for all those rushing touchdowns and field goals. Right? If it happened, it happened.

Honestly, I can't believe that people are still trying to beat the "Manning isn't clutch" drum after last year. Brady's season ended with him tossing a game-ending interception, and Manning's season ended with him hoisting the Lombardi trophy. But people can be extremely selective in their memories, especially if they're obnoxious bandwagon fans. An objective measure, though, doesn't give nearly the same impression that selective memories do.

No, of course not...

I wasn't comparing Manning to Brady, or even the Colts to the Pats. I was just saying that Manning has a tendency to play worse when the pressure is on compared to when it isn't. If you want to compare, though...

Manning QB Ratings
Year Reg. season | playoffs
2006 101 | 69.8
2005 104.1 | 66.5
2004 121.1 | 119
2003 100.5 | 99
2002 88.8 | 41.5
2000 94.7 | 82
1999 90.7 | 62

Avg. delta: -23

Brady QB Ratings
Year Reg. season | playoffs
2006 87.9 | 76.5
2005 92.3 | 92.2
2004 92.6 | 109.4
2003 85.9 | 84.5
2001 86.5 | 77.3

Avg. delta: -1.06

The best measure of quarterback performance, without going into a more complicated statistic like DVOA, is adjusted yards per pass[....]

Manning:
(3897 + (10 * 21) - (45 * 17)) / 523 = 6.4

Brady:
(3479 + (10 * 23) - (45 * 9)) / 514 = 6.4

I think that just about says it all.

The discussion was not overall performance, but performance relative to the norm. Yes, I consider Brady and Manning to be pretty equal, all things considered. But I'm comparing Manning to himself, not to Brady...even if that's what everybody else seems to want to turn it into.

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Manning is a hell of a QB and Brady couldn't even hold his jock.

As happy as I am the Chargers advanced the Colts have always been classy that's what makes them different from most of the Pats fans.

Are you talking about the teams or the fans? If the teams, then you might want to ask Vanderjagt how classy they are. Or maybe the O-Line after Peyton throws them under the bus. If you mean the fans, you've obviously never seen a Pats message board before a Colts game. And just to specify, since people don't seem to get this point...I'm not saying the Pats are better. Just that the Colts (players, coach, or fans) aren't as saintly as some might claim.

They understand what mutual respect is about, and have respected the Chargers since Schottenheimer made us good again. The Pats? They are still working on the concept of respect for the Colts who have been their mortal enemies for years now let alone these upstart Chargers who've never won a SB.

And you're basing the Pats not respecting the Colts claim on what again? The whole class discussion is stupid in any case, but I'm just curious. Or maybe I'm just misunderstanding what respect is...perhaps it's jumping up on the bench and yelling at the fans of the team you just beat.

I'm hearing how it's 'impossible' for Gods team to lose because they are blessed to have the almighty Brady, I could quote you numerous 'experts' who say it's so.

Not from me you haven't. All I said was it would probably take more than Volek and Turner. You're welcome to argue that point if you want.

[Imran Siddiqui]

So the goal of an offense is not so much to score touchdowns as to score just enough points to win?

Um.. duh?

The discussion was not overall performance, but performance relative to the norm. Yes, I consider Brady and Manning to be pretty equal, all things considered. But I'm comparing Manning to himself, not to Brady...even if that's what everybody else seems to want to turn it into.

So Manning "choking" leads to him being just as good as Brady being "clutch"?

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

So the goal of an offense is not so much to score touchdowns as to score just enough points to win?

Um.. duh?

Funny, I would have thought it was to keep scoring touchdowns until the game was no longer in doubt. Apparently Manning is so good he can take one look at the opposite sideline and exactly predict how much they'll be able to score, thus obviating the need to put up any more points than absolutely necessary. Suddenly the whole 'running up the score' conversation from earlier this year makes sense...

So Manning "choking" leads to him being just as good as Brady being "clutch"?

Manning choking with weapons = Brady clutch without them. If Brady chokes this year, maybe we can compare numbers...

[Ben Kenobi]

Are you talking about the teams or the fans? If the teams, then you might want to ask Vanderjagt how classy they are. Or maybe the O-Line after Peyton throws them under the bus. If you mean the fans, you've obviously never seen a Pats message board before a Colts game. And just to specify, since people don't seem to get this point...I'm not saying the Pats are better. Just that the Colts (players, coach, or fans) aren't as saintly as some might claim.

Or the Pats dancing on the logo when they beat SD last year like they won the superbowl?

Yeah those Pats sure are classy.

It's been my experience that Colts fans are very classy at least the ones I've met.

The whole class discussion is stupid in any case,

It's things like this that make me say that Colts fans are much classier. Good people.

Not from me you haven't. All I said was it would probably take more than Volek and Turner. You're welcome to argue that point if you want.

Well you might want to tell some of the columnists to hold off on buying tickets to Glendale. It's going to be a heck of a game and I look forward to it. I'm very happy with a 15 point spread.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Funny, I would have thought it was to keep scoring touchdowns until the game was no longer in doubt. Apparently Manning is so good he can take one look at the opposite sideline and exactly predict how much they'll be able to score, thus obviating the need to put up any more points than absolutely necessary.

The point is to score more points than the opposition. They did that last season in the playoffs, so complaining about FGs instead of TDs is pretty silly.

Manning choking with weapons = Brady clutch without them.

Edgerrin James may show that sometimes Manning can make the weapons look better than they are . Now that doesn't necessarily apply to those like Marvin Harrison, of course. But it does to plenty.

It's been my experience that Colts fans are very classy at least the ones I've met.

Don't forget their coach. Classiest man in the game is Tony Dungy .

[Jaguar]

Originally posted by Koyaanisqatsi
But I'm comparing Manning to himself, not to Brady...

OK, fair enough.

Manning's adjusted yards per attempt in the regular season is 7.0, or .6 higher than his playoff ay/a of 6.4. That's definitely a statistically significant downturn, without a doubt. But we all know that basically every quarterback, even Brady, performs worse in the playoffs because competition is better. (Exception: Joe Montana, whose postseason numbers are ****ing crazy.)

Let's look at that idea further. The average playoff team has a good defense, but I'd be willing to bet that Manning has had a far worse-than-average schedule of defenses, even for a playoff quarterback. Obviously, the AFC playoffs have been tougher than the NFC playoffs for basically the entirety of his career. Furthermore, he faces the Patriots all the time and almost never gets to face the weakest defense in the playoffs - because it's almost always his own.

There are 12 playoff teams, and the average one probably has around the ninth or tenth best scoring defense in the league. (Presumably, the top 12 defenses in the league don't always make it to the playoffs because some are hampered by bad offenses or bad schedules.)

Look at Manning's playoff schedule. He has played 14 postseason games. His opponents are spectacularly scary on defense.

Seven top-3 defenses: 2006 Ravens, 2006 Bears, 2005 Steelers, 2004 Patriots, 2003 Patriots, 2000 Dolphins, 2006 Patriots.

One top-five defense: 2007 Chargers

Three top-ten defenses: 1999 Titans, 2004 Broncos, 2003 Broncos

Three mediocre defenses: 2003 Chiefs, 2006 Chiefs, 2002 Jets.

It's clear that Manning's schedule has been absolutely dominated by defense-oriented teams. Is that schedule an additional .6 adjusted yards per pass better than average? Maybe, maybe not. It's possible that Manning does marginally worse, or even marginally better, during the playoffs. But he's pretty much the same guy as he always is during the playoffs. His competition is just radically different.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Or the Pats dancing on the logo when they beat SD last year like they won the superbowl?

Yeah those Pats sure are classy.

You have an amazing talent to respond to one sentence and then completely ignore the next. I specifically said I wasn't saying the Pats were better. Why do you fail to understand that there I can make a statement about one team without automatically implying that the opposite is true for 'my' team? Manning can choke without Brady being God. Members of the Chargers can act like asses without every member of the Pats acting like saints.

It's been my experience that Colts fans are very classy at least the ones I've met.
It's things like this that make me say that Colts fans are much classier. Good people.

It's been my experience that broad statements about artificial groups are generally inane and pointless.