MLB: Hot Stove Time

[reismark]

Looks like the lid is about to go on the pot with some news that A-Rod probably could have used, oh, a couple of weeks ago: The Breaking News Banner on CBS Sportsline is saying that Barry Bonds finally got indicted for perjury and obstruction in the BALCO case.

Regardless of whether the case sticks (and odds are, it won't) this probably means Bonds is done as a player.

[Imran Siddiqui]

An interesting article on the A-Rod deal:

http://squawkingbaseball.com/?p=46#more-46

Scott Boras Remains Smart; A-Rod Remains Rich

In a week or two from now, we may know the full details of this apparent about face that both the Yankees and Alex Rodriguez have now done. A-Rod

The story goes as follows, at least if you are to believe the New York Daily News: A-Rod contacted the Yankees, hoping that they would consider talking to him. The Yankees agreed, on the conditions that A-Rod take a “below market” contract, and Scott Boras would be kept out of the negotiations. Willing to do anything to be a Yankee, A-Rod agreed, and a deal is imminent.

Now consider the source. The paper cited an anonymous “high-ranking” Yankee official, which almost always means an anonymous Steinbrenner (although that anonymous Steinbrenner is likely a bit younger this time). The Yankees are clearly trying to shape this story in a way that suits them, and certain grumpy writers are buying it.

Now let’s consider reality. A year ago, despite the contracts handed out last winter, no one realistically thought A-
Rod could come close to duplicating the total money on his last deal. Now, the Yankees are apparently defining 10 years for $275 million as below market value.

But what is market value? Really, it’s whatever price people will pay for that asset on the open market. If there were teams lining up to pay significantly more than $275 million for A-Rod, he probably wouldn’t be talking to the Yankees right now. Instead, the market value that the Yankees seem to be referring to is the $350 million price tag that Boras set himself.

So consider: Boras sets an incredibly high price, and the media calls him names. But by doing so, he raises the bar, and makes a lower (but still outrageously high) number seem not only palatable, but “below market value.”

People love to hate Scott Boras, but he continues to win. And don’t be mistaken, this is a major victory. Nobody has come within $100 million of A-Rod’s last deal since the 2000-01 winter, and now it looks like he will beat that one by at least ten percent.

Is it possible that A-Rod and Boras are really on the outs? And that the Steinbrenners drove the wedge between them? And that A-Rod is taking millions less than he could have, to the dismay of Boras?

It’s possible, but not likely. Boras has proven again and again that he is a fantastic businessman, and is almost always well ahead of the curve. And while those that hate him will milk this story as much as they can, this is just another example of Boras outperforming his peers.

[-Jrabbit]

This story rings true for me.

[Ming]

I love reading/hearing the Boras bashing... and I just have to laugh. I do feel that Boras was mistaken about what he thought he could get for ARod... but he bounced back beautifully.

Boras is probably laughing as well, because in the end, his client is making a ton more money.

Somebody please explain to me how Boras lost this one

[Arrian]

I generally agree. Boras doesn't "lose" here. He just doesn't win the way he sometimes has in the past (driving his enemies before him, hearing the lamentations of their women, etc.). But he's still gonna laugh his way to the bank, as will ARod.

...

Apparently Mariano is holding out for a 4th year. This is insane. 3/45 was already nuts. The original 3/39 was nutty. The Yankees have, apparently, gotten reamed by the other owners for the 3/45 offer... and I think rightly so. They're bidding against themselves. None of the other teams is stupid enough, and/or rich enough, to come close to that offer. So, aside from WTF? Yankees, the question remains... WTF, Mo?

Mostly the former, though. Mo may honestly believe that if he holds out they will (again) bid against themselves and offer more. Viewed in that light, it's hard to blame him.

I can defend the Posada contract. I will probably be able to defend the ARod contract. But this one is mind-boggling.

-Arrian

[Ming]

Yeah... the Mariano deal is really iffy. A fourth year... HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Greed is an evil thing
But he will probably get it.

[Imran Siddiqui]

They're bidding against themselves.

That also seemed to be the case in the A-Rod deal. At least with Lowell there is another bidder .

[Arrian]

Ugh. Lowell @ 1B (for 4 years!) makes no sense whatsoever. NONE. Don't get me started.

As for ARod... probably, yeah. Harder to say. I am totally confident in saying that no other team would put up 3/40+ for Mariano. I am not totally confident that no other team would put up 10/250+ for ARod. I'm not saying it's likely that one would, mind you.

-Arrian

[Saygame]

Just returned from the AFL in Phoenix. Talked to some scouts and insiders

Guys to watch:

Matt La Porta, Milwaukee....OF, Bat speed, strong

Russ Ohlendorf, NYY.....Relief, 96 mile an hour fastball, Joba's insurance to start....may even overtake Farnsworth at setup.....

Andrew McCutcheon, Pit, OF....you've heard this name before...this kid can do it all....run field and gap the ball

Cameron Maybin, Det, OF....him too....tho his skills looked a little rookie raw to me

Reid Brignac, Tam, SS... confident and can hit....may move positions but we'll see...a ways off but prolly late 08

Didn't see Tampa's Longoria or SD's Chase Headly. There were lotsa talk about them tho. Overall the class of 08 looks to be lean unlike last season's class. I have to admit....even tho I think Posada is way overpriced, the market at catcher is weak. Hence all the vets returning for high prices. Even Ausmus is gonna play....geesh. Russell sure looks good at C in that light.
Sleepers for me are Ruiz from Philly and Montero from Ariz. Maybe even Napoli from LAA. Your call

[Arrian]

I have some hope for Ohlendorf, but the key to his "96 mph fastball" is that it is supposed to sink & generate grounders. Was he doing that?

Maybin is, what, 20?

Napoli is valueable, for the same reason any halfway decent hitting catcher is valueable. IIRC, he doesn't hit for average, but has patience & power (not as much as Jorge, but hey, few do).

-Arrian

[Stuie]

Originally posted by Saygame

Sleepers for me are Ruiz from Philly...

2007 Salary: $380,000

[Saygame]

Originally posted by Arrian
I have some hope for Ohlendorf, but the key to his "96 mph fastball" is that it is supposed to sink & generate grounders. Was he doing that?

Maybin is, what, 20?

-Arrian

Ohlendorf, admittedly on only one observation, looked real real good. Good control, little deception since he threw such strong heat. 50-50 he'll be rostered after a good spring.

Maybin is real young but folks there were worried Detroit was rushin him. As David Ortiz likes to say...."you never know".

[Imran Siddiqui]

There are rumors that the Mets are looking to sign David Eckstein for 2B... at $36 mil for 4 years. If this happens, I may have to support a new team.

[-Jrabbit]

The 5-7, 177-pound Eckstein did have career lows with 117 games played and 434 at-bats in '07. He missed 23 games from June 14-July 13 with lower-back trouble, but still hit .309 with three homers, 31 RBI and 10 steals for the Cardinals.

$9MM/YR????

[Imran Siddiqui]

Why in the Hell do the Mets have to be linked to the most overrated baseball player in, probably, MLB history? Why?

I hope it's a bad rumor!