MLB: Hot Stove Time

[Arrian]

I think the Tigers' main concerns are actually in the pitching department (true of most teams, really). It's true that Pudge is now a lineup hole, but there aren't many catchers who can hit.

It's an interesting point, though, that him leaving the ALC will have some impact on which division gets the WC. It's almost surely between the central and the east (one could argue, I suppose, that Seattle has a shot b/c Oakland will be terrible, but I don't see it). This gives the Tigers & Indians a boost in that department.

The Yanks will still have to face him 1-2 times next year, during interleague crapola.

-Arrian

[OzzyKP]

Yea, even with Pudge, I'm really thinking offense isn't gonna be our problem this year. I'm not terribly worried about starting pitching either. The bullpen though... I dunno. Either way I'm feeling pretty good about this season. In 2006 we had the best pitching in the league, in 2007 we had the best hitting. We've improved both for 2008.

[Imran Siddiqui]

In 2007 you had the best, what? Do the New York Yankees not play in the league anymore?

5.98 runs per game to 5.48 (you are 2nd, so yay for you). And a 118 to 110 OPS+ for your teams.

[OzzyKP]

Well I guess we were the best offense till the Yankees had that damn surge in the second half...

[Arrian]

Heh. Yeah, the Tigers offense was quite good, but behind the Yanks. I think that will remain true, but be closer. It's entirely possible that the Tigers will end up #1. The Red Sox will be in the discussion as well.

Yanks signed Morgan Ensberg to compete for a platoon spot. I like it.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Well, I'm assuming that Giambi comes back from his injury problems and starts hitting like he did in 2006 (148 OPS+), which will really make the Yanks offense that much more scary.

[snoopy369]

You know he has to stay off the 'roids this time around, right?

[Arrian]

Heh. I dunno about the 'roids, but I doubt he can stay healthy enough to do that, Imran. Giambi is old and busted. If he puts up a 148 OPS+ in appreciable playing time I'll be thrilled.

The Yankee offense is likely to take a step back this year, because of regressions from ARod and Posada and continued aging of other key guys like Jeter, Abreu and Matsui. Melky and Cano (and possibly Betemit) might be better, but not enough to counteract that.

-Arrian

[reismark]

It's almost official - pending a physical, Santana's a Met.

Santana agrees to $150.75M, seven-year deal with Mets

Deal's for $137.5M over six more years on top of the $13.25M he's due for this year; an average of almost $23M for the new years, $21.5M over the seven.

This should cinch a dominant position in the NL for the Mets for at minimum the remainder of the decade.

[asleepathewheel]

According to people familiar with the negotiations, the deal will pay the two-time Cy Young Award winner $137.5 for six years in new money on top of the $13.25 million he was due in 2008, meaning the Mets have guaranteed Santana $150.75 million over seven years.

The back end of that contract is going to be ugly, I think.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/02/01/mets.santana.official/index.html

[Berzerker]

One thing that was consistent last year and is of concern is his HR rate. All of a sudden, Johan is giving up a lot of HRs.

Opposing batters start getting use to the change up... You see him enough you start picking up subtle differences in his motion... This change to the NL will be awesome for him, a league of hitters who rarely got to see him pitch. A new flock to be fleeced

But he does have a history of slow starts, he gets it together after the AS break and is so good he turns those mediocre spring stats into CY Young material

[Arrian]

This should cinch a dominant position in the NL for the Mets for at minimum the remainder of the decade

It does nothing of the sort. As great as Santana is, he's one pitcher. Teams need a whole lot more than that to be dominant. The Mets have some old/injured guys in that rotation (Pedro, El Duque). They have some excellent young position players, which is great. But it's not like they have no holes there either. Plus, Johan's arm could always fall off. He's a pitcher, and pitchers are fragile creatures. I'm not saying it will happen. I'm saying it's entirely possible.

I like this move for the Mets, really, but let's not overstate its impact, eh?

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Reismark overstating something?!! NO!!!

[snoopy369]

So when do we start fantasy baseball talk?

I want to organize an auction league this year...

[Arrian]

Apparently Shilling has a shoulder injury of some kind and there is disagreement between him, the team and various doctors about what to do. Reports suggest he could be out for half the season, or possibly all of it. Unclear.

This hurts the Sox's pitching depth. Even w/o Shilling they have a good rotation: Beckett-DiceK-Wakefield-Lester-Buccholz (I put Buccholz last due to a likely innings cap), but it's less proven and there is now a higher likeyhood of having to plug in somebody like Julian Taverez as a spot starter (if anyone else gets hurt - say if Wakefield's back acts up).

-Arrian