Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

I'm sure Russia can go far beyond 100%

[N35t0r]

Ukraine allocates more than 60% of its budget for defence. Maybe Russia can manage 37%?

Is Russia receiving several billions in foreign aid each year, and facing an existential war against a foreign invader?

[Geronimo]

Is Russia receiving several billions in foreign aid each year, and facing an existential war against a foreign invader?

Don't you suspect that a large majority of Russians believe that Russia faces an existential war against "the collective West"? I think Russia's war economy, especially at 37% of expenditures is not necessarily more unsustainable than Ukraine's 60%. It will be interesting to see how Russia handles Saudi Arabia moving to regain market share, however, if they move to do so this December as they announced a few weeks ago.

[BeBMan]

Don't you suspect that a large majority of Russians believe that Russia faces an existential war against "the collective West"?.

Of course they do, or at least they don't openly oppose, which is all no wonder given the daily barrages of Kremlin propaganda, Moscow's control over Russian media, and the brutal oppression of dissent on top.

[N35t0r]

Don't you suspect that a large majority of Russians believe that Russia faces an existential war against "the collective West"? I think Russia's war economy, especially at 37% of expenditures is not necessarily more unsustainable than Ukraine's 60%. It will be interesting to see how Russia handles Saudi Arabia moving to regain market share, however, if they move to do so this December as they announced a few weeks ago.

No? Given that there are precisely zero "collective West" troops currently occupying parts of Russia. There might be some to a lot of very bellicose Russians, but it's a quite different scenario from a real existential war. If Putin thought that Russians really believed that, would he be doing everything possible to avoid any further mobilization waves, or otherwise inconvenience the core Russian people living around Moscow and St Petersburg.

The same way that the US, even at the height of the cold war, couldn't maintain nearly as high a military budget as during WW2, even if the actual threat to the US was greater after the Soviets got nukes.

[BeBMan]

Meanwhile Putin has come up with his most promising plan for victory:

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/kremlin-crafts-victory-narrative-amid-impending-war-negotiations/ar-AA1v7DwE

[The Mad Monk]

In which this guy suggests that this might be Ukrainian propaganda, but then gives good reasons why it probably isn't:

[The Mad Monk]

I wonder if MOBIUS has made his yet...

[Dinner]

He made it many, many years ago.

[EPW]

War is depressing.