Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BeBMan]

I'm sure Russia can go far beyond 100%

[N35t0r]

Ukraine allocates more than 60% of its budget for defence. Maybe Russia can manage 37%?

Is Russia receiving several billions in foreign aid each year, and facing an existential war against a foreign invader?

[Geronimo]

Is Russia receiving several billions in foreign aid each year, and facing an existential war against a foreign invader?

Don't you suspect that a large majority of Russians believe that Russia faces an existential war against "the collective West"? I think Russia's war economy, especially at 37% of expenditures is not necessarily more unsustainable than Ukraine's 60%. It will be interesting to see how Russia handles Saudi Arabia moving to regain market share, however, if they move to do so this December as they announced a few weeks ago.

[BeBMan]

Don't you suspect that a large majority of Russians believe that Russia faces an existential war against "the collective West"?.

Of course they do, or at least they don't openly oppose, which is all no wonder given the daily barrages of Kremlin propaganda, Moscow's control over Russian media, and the brutal oppression of dissent on top.

[N35t0r]

Don't you suspect that a large majority of Russians believe that Russia faces an existential war against "the collective West"? I think Russia's war economy, especially at 37% of expenditures is not necessarily more unsustainable than Ukraine's 60%. It will be interesting to see how Russia handles Saudi Arabia moving to regain market share, however, if they move to do so this December as they announced a few weeks ago.

No? Given that there are precisely zero "collective West" troops currently occupying parts of Russia. There might be some to a lot of very bellicose Russians, but it's a quite different scenario from a real existential war. If Putin thought that Russians really believed that, would he be doing everything possible to avoid any further mobilization waves, or otherwise inconvenience the core Russian people living around Moscow and St Petersburg.

The same way that the US, even at the height of the cold war, couldn't maintain nearly as high a military budget as during WW2, even if the actual threat to the US was greater after the Soviets got nukes.

[BeBMan]

Meanwhile Putin has come up with his most promising plan for victory:

https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/world/kremlin-crafts-victory-narrative-amid-impending-war-negotiations/ar-AA1v7DwE

[The Mad Monk]

In which this guy suggests that this might be Ukrainian propaganda, but then gives good reasons why it probably isn't:

[The Mad Monk]

I wonder if MOBIUS has made his yet...

[Dinner]

He made it many, many years ago.

[EPW]

War is depressing.

[Dinner]

An interesting take

https://youtu.be/MhpoNL1gZbw?si=Aw68B7qIzdL_xkW3

[BeBMan]

I think it's really hard to say now if we get negotiations soon or not. Puck, in the vid, sez Russia may go for it to achieve political domination over Ukraine without taking the country completely by force.

That's certainly possible. But I also read frequently that Putin may be less willing to enter negotiations now that his forces make more gains, albeit at high losses.

If Puck is right, territorial control is less important, and Putin may just rhetorically up the ante, kinda like "I don't need to negotiate, cuz I'm winning now" (regardless if his losses are sustainable).

But there's also this idea floating around that Russia has to double down in Ukraine now due to the debacle in Syria, and the related loss of face (Puck makes no mention of this, vid may even have been produced before).

So bottom line - dunno, and much depends on what the Trump folks actually do exactly. Until then we are just left guessing.

[Dinner]

I expect Trump to offer a fair deal of land for peace. Putin may or may not take it, I honestly hope he doesn't, if Putin doesn't take it then I expect Trump to become enraged, to take all weapons restrictions off, and to simply flood Ukraine with weapons.

Good luck to Russia if that happens.

[Dauphin]

I can see that. I can also see Trump saying Putin is a great guy, Russia hoax, Ukraine you're on your own without my help so give Putin, a great guy, everything he wants.

[Dauphin]

I also have a question - if Trump thinks that Putin is a great guy and not a threat, but also thinks Europe needs to pay it's NATO 'dues', who exactly does he think NATO countries are actually under threat from? Does he think it's China?