Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[BlackCat]

Interesting. I'm quite sure that the rest of the world (well, except from some like China, Iran, North chorea etc) would consider that quite offensive and result in restrictions on USA at par.

[Geronimo]

Interesting. I'm quite sure that the rest of the world (well, except from some like China, Iran, North chorea etc) would consider that quite offensive and result in restrictions on USA at par.

That would be refreshing but I don't see it. A majority of states in Europe have contributed proportionately far less to the defence of Ukraine than the US has. They'd mostly cave and blame the US for the Russian victory that would develop from the "peace"

[BeBMan]

Christmas etc. I'm a bit confused, are you saying that Trumpfh will pull out of the sanctions against russia ? Because that is the only way he could make life easier for Putin.

It's safe to assume that everybody in the world is basically just waiting to give Putin what he wants without any precondition

[Geronimo]

It's safe to assume that everybody in the world is basically just waiting to give Putin what he wants without any precondition

especially when all he says he wants now are things only Ukraine would have to pay for. I'm sure there will also be preconditions involving more "security guarantees" to compensate Ukraine for giving everything away to Russia.

[BlackCat]

That would be refreshing but I don't see it. A majority of states in Europe have contributed proportionately far less to the defence of Ukraine than the US has. They'd mostly cave and blame the US for the Russian victory that would develop from the "peace"

Interesting, according to this USA is number 17 with 15 european countries and Canada above. Below USA is 16 other european countries which either has some nutcase rigthwing governments or have bad economies/other problems with society. Only strange one is France, but it might change when their Super Sabres in the coming months.

It's quite entertaining that there are americans that has a pretty good clue about what is happening in the rest of the world and then there are the wast amount that doesn't have a clue

[Geronimo]

Interesting, according to this USA is number 17 with 15 european countries and Canada above. Below USA is 16 other european countries which either has some nutcase rigthwing governments or have bad economies/other problems with society. Only strange one is France, but it might change when their Super Sabres in the coming months.

It's quite entertaining that there are americans that has a pretty good clue about what is happening in the rest of the world and then there are the wast amount that doesn't have a clue

I'm thrilled if my information on total contributions is dated, although if much of the relative drop in US contributions stems from the long pause in US contributions last year that will not be so encouraging. I do note that


Ukraine weapon deliveries value by country, the last time Statista tallied them, had the US as the majority contributer and while I agree that net of all contributions of all sorts as a percentage of GDP may be a much better gauge of political will in a country, I also sadly note that Ukraine at least, has made clear that the direct military aid is by far the most decisive for their survival.

I look forward to being proven wrong, but I remain cautiously pessimistic that should Trump try to end sanctions to make a peace "deal" happen he will successfully do so. Even if a few countries remain committed to keeping sanctions in place the sting will largely be gone.

​​​​​​​Thank you for the encouraging link however.

[BlackCat]

Ukraine weapon deliveries value by country, the last time Statista tallied them, had the US as the majority contributer and while I agree that net of all contributions of all sorts as a percentage of GDP may be a much better gauge of political will in a country, I also sadly note that Ukraine at least, has made clear that the direct military aid is by far the most decisive for their survival.

Uhmn, that list you link to only say anything about the period January to November 2022 while my link cover January 24, 2022 to June 30, 2024. Further, it's way more interesting to look at what the capacity for the different countries is instead of some more or less random numbers.

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[Geronimo]

Uhmn, that list you link to only say anything about the period January to November 2022 while my link cover January 24, 2022 to June 30, 2024. Further, it's way more interesting to look at what the capacity for the different countries is instead of some more or less random numbers.

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You missed the point. I was drawing attention to the disparities in direct military aid. I would love to see more current comparisons of direct military aid but all that i find are net comparisons of aid of all types. I maintain that unless the current numbers show that the total fraction of direct military aid (the kind of aid that Ukraine quite clearly underlines is by far the most critical for Ukraine's survival) from the US is far less than half of total direct military aid to Ukraine, then Trump will still be in a position to manipulate huge concessions to Russia as terms of his deal.

I will of course be quite happy if you provide a link that showing that non-US direct military aid is much more than half of the total of direct military aid to Ukraine, just as I was happy to see your link suggesting that the US provided much less than half of the net total of all forms of aid to Ukraine.
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[Dinner]

Interesting, according to this USA is number 17 with 15 european countries and Canada above. Below USA is 16 other european countries which either has some nutcase rigthwing governments or have bad economies/other problems with society. Only strange one is France, but it might change when their Super Sabres in the coming months.

It's quite entertaining that there are americans that has a pretty good clue about what is happening in the rest of the world and then there are the wast amount that doesn't have a clue

Those numbers are as a percentage of GDP and count pledges delivered or not. Pledges are nice but if it takes five years to deliver and the war lasts three then little ends up getting delivered. Still nice to see but the rubber hits the road when weapons are fielded in battle.

[Dauphin]

You missed the point. I was drawing attention to the disparities in direct military aid. I would love to see more current comparisons of direct military aid but all that i find are net comparisons of aid of all types. I maintain that unless the current numbers show that the total fraction of direct military aid (the kind of aid that Ukraine quite clearly underlines is by far the most critical for Ukraine's survival) from the US is far less than half of total direct military aid to Ukraine, then Trump will still be in a position to manipulate huge concessions to Russia as terms of his deal.

I will of course be quite happy if you provide a link that showing that non-US direct military aid is much more than half of the total of direct military aid to Ukraine, just as I was happy to see your link suggesting that the US provided much less than half of the net total of all forms of aid to Ukraine.
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Same source:

Total bilateral aid to Ukraine by donor & type 2024 | Statista​


US Military Aid Euro 52 bn
Other Country Miltary Aid ~ Euro 52 bn and change, I gave up counting when it hit Euro 52bn, but there wasn't much left to count.

[Geronimo]

Same source:

Total bilateral aid to Ukraine by donor & type 2024 | Statista​


US Military Aid Euro 52 bn
Other Country Miltary Aid ~ Euro 52 bn and change, I gave up counting when it hit Euro 52bn, but there wasn't much left to count.

that's definitely discouraging.

[Dauphin]

Hard to know real figures, because a similar chart in the link below, priced in USD, has the ratio more like $85 bn (non-US) to $70bn (US). And it might just be due to how they calculate 'worth' or the relevant exchange rate.

How Much U.S. Aid Is Going to Ukraine? | Council on Foreign Relations


They appear to be using the same root source too, given how the data is presented.​

[Dauphin]

This looks better to use. Source material and details of how they collected. Updated December 2024


Ukraine Support Tracker Data | Kiel Institute​

Dataset_Documentation.pdf​

Total Military Allocations: US$ 131.5 bn, of which US$ 64.4 bn by the US.
Total Military Commitments: US$ 176 bn, of which US$ 70.5 bn by the US.

So US accounts for 50% allocated, and 42% committed. EU as an entity (i.e., excluding member countries) has been providing far more in financial assistance.

[Jon Miller]

A lot of the military aid to Ukraine takes a while to have an impact. I think that there is hope that the US aid from the last 2 years will still be felt into 2026 and so Ukraine still has time.

I read recently that Ukraine is providing 30% of thier own support, which is good. As long as Europe can provide a lot of the immediate needs, it is likely that Ukraine can continue to last, and we have seen signs that Russia is finally starting to crack.

JM

[N35t0r]

There's reports that Ukrainian artillery outnumbers Russian artillery on some fronts:

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/fukraine-s-artillery-advantage-now-3-1-on-1734101290.html

That's pretty significant news, considering that as much as 70% of Ukrainian casualties come from Russian artillery, and that they originally had a 7:1 advantage.