Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[The Mad Monk]

[Dinner]

It just seems like border raids to cause distractions and force the enemy to spread out their forces. Supposedly, Ukraine is also doing the same in Briansk (spelling?) to the West of Kursk. Belgorod is east and South of Kursk.

[pchang]

It appears that they are looking for places they can setup for defense thanks to the local geography. This puts pressure on Russia to constantly attack and in a war of attrition, this is to Ukraine's advantage.

[DinoDoc]

Has Serb commented since Ukraine's Special Military Operation started?

[The Mad Monk]

Yes, but usually only when Russia is "winning".

[pchang]

Which corresponds to when Serb has consumed a large amount of alcohol.

[The Mad Monk]

Nope!

[Geronimo]

Wondering if the folly of Ukraine's Kursk attack has caught up with you lot yet...? 🙄

What should we have noticed by now to make that obvious? Example?

[N35t0r]

You know... stuff.

[BeBMan]

At the current pace, how many years will Russia need to get the rest of the Donbas?

[N35t0r]

That while Ukraine is chewing through its best units and equipment in a strategic backwater, Russian gains are accelerating across the strategically critical Donbas front...

Ukraine has failed to get Russia to divert its forces from those critical areas and has only exacerbated the rapidity in which they're falling. As I said would happen in the beginning...

Do you have actual evidence for all of this, or is it mroe 'trust me bro' and 'blindingly obvious'.

[BeBMan]

Russia is advancing in the Donbas, but so is Ukraine in Russia. When everyone is advancing, noone is advancing.
#myownresearch

Nah, but Putin's gains in the last regional elections in Germany are a notable success...

[Geronimo]

It's called basic map reading skills...

The Ukrainians have captured land in a sparsely populated backwater of a backwater region, while jeopardising and degrading their best units and equipment...

Meanwhile, the Russians have been making accelerated gains in a relatively built up and industrialised, strategically significant portion of the Donbas - one of their key strategic goals...

But hey... 🙄🤷�♂�

I would also add that politically it lets Putin use his conscripts against Ukraine without the need for the politically toxic groundwork of legally allowing such use. it's already permitted under Russian law within Russia itself. However, the presence of Ukrainian military occupying any part of pre-conflict Russia may be so politically damaging to Putin along with the fallout of using (legally or not) the conscripts in a war he may be perceived as responsible for that Putin may be brought back to negotiating. That is probably what Ukraine was gambling on.

It's also true that the Russian salient pointing towards Pokrovsk doesn't have any serious natural barriers to protect it and Russia will not realize the strategic benefit of the advances in that area until it captures at least enough of Pokrovsk to deny its functionality as a logistical hub for Ukraine. Perhaps Ukraine is preparing a devastating counterattack? I think the time to call Ukraine's Kursk offensive foolish is not yet ripe. We'll have to see what Russia actually has when their offensive culminates or at least wait until they have decisively denied Pokrovsk as a hub for Ukrainian operations.

[Dinner]

We don't know what public opinion on the war in Russia is as it has been criminalized to speak out against Putin's war of aggression.

[Dinner]

BTW Mobius, you might be an insane lunatic but you should still join CG's discord.

[The Mad Monk]

Sometimes, it's worthwhile to see what the other side is saying.