Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[WigIaf]

"russia was knocked out of world war one by a revolution"

it didn't even "conquer" germany

the soviet union did and collapsed within one person's lifetime

ukraine never forgets (i hope)

[BlackCat]

This is quite interesting

[Dinner]

If you are interested in a real explanation by an educated person about possible motivations for this offensive then this video is pretty good. He admits not everything is clear yet but what he does say makes a lot of sense and does account for the information we do have available.

https://youtu.be/A4mg1ZUb-7s?si=u6zPq8c9jPkq2jiO

[Dinner]

This is quite interesting

I got beaten to the punch.

[BeBMan]

Nice little chitchat indeed. I found the bits about conscripts at the end interesting,

[Dinner]

It actually makes a lot of sense as all the military experts in the West have been telling them they need to engage in mobile warfare using combined arms. That is literally what they have done. Also, looking on the map, they can actually straighten their defensive line and position themselves on the high ground behind rivers if they can successfully reach those areas. Plus the east has endless mine fields, trenches, and fortifications but inside Russia there are almost none of those things. That is what makes mobile warfare possible.

As for last reserves .. They literally have a second mobile army sitting Abbot to the east so that if Putin foolishly weakens the defenses there to counter the original forces then the second mobile group can push through near Belgorod. Russia's problem is most of its real army of contract soldiers are in Eastern Ukraine where as the north only has conscripts who legally can't be deployed in Ukraine. This creates a dilemma for Putin: Does he redeploy forces from Eastern Ukraine or does he through poorly trained and under equipped conscripts into Ukraine s best mobile forces? Public opinion is generally ok with volunteers dying in war but would get very upset when conscripts start dying in large numbers.

[Geronimo]

Interesting question: is this strategically insane incursion into Russia Ukraine's Battle of the Bulge moment...?

One final desperate roll of the dice that ****s their last remaining reserves.

Looks like it to me 🙄

What's the cute face supposed to tell us? Anyway be careful what you say about this foggy situation. Even if Ukraine ends up withdrawing from all of Kursk this decision to invade Kursk could have done overwhelming damage if Russia made the mistake of piling tons of valuable targets just beyond HIMARS range.

Also Third Reich didn't fail in the West because of the Battle of the Bulge. They lost because the Axis couldn't hope to begin to match Allied economic and manpower advantages.

Tell us how the incursion is insane however.

[Dinner]

Apparently the second mobile group that was sitting on the border has also now moved and is pushing in near Belgorod.

https://youtu.be/lSAkXsHd6BI?si=TjnY_rHOK6o0Wl0i

Assuming this video is correct that is.

[Dinner]

WaPo on the new raid into Russia's Belgorod area.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/10/ukraine-belgorod-kursk-russia-occupied-war/

[Uncle Sparky]

It's about a 6 hour drive from Kursk to Moscow... unless they stop for a couple of meal breaks.

[BeBMan]

Now it would be the right time for some higher army guy in Russia to grow a spine and retire Putin for health reasons, then all sides could withdraw to their internationally recognized bordahs...

[Lorizael]

Didn't work out so well for the last guy who kinda sorta maybe tried that...

[Dinner]

Gerasimov has been sacked and the head of the KGB/FSB has been put in his place. I suspect this is a mistake as now there is a man more powerful than Putin. At least we know who the next leader of Russia will be if Putin doesn't do well

[pchang]

Just a rumor so far.

[Geronimo]

Isn't it stupid to make your best intelligence civilian a head of defense? How much overlap in experience and skills is that really? Especially given that the entire special military operation continues to unfold according to the plan?

[Dinner]

Pchang is correct that this is just a rumor but Inside Russia is saying he believes it and he has a pretty good record and knows Russia well as he is a Russian. As for why I thought it was risky for a dictator like Putin... Typically dictators want to divide up power and often put unpopular or incompetent people in key positions so that they don't have the ability to over throw the dictator. The KGB/FSB is already the most powerful group in Russia (they were in the USSR too as they lead several coups and their faction controls the country) but now supposedly they will also have unified command over the military as well.

That is the people with the guns. Dictators usually don't want so much power in the hands of other people.