Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

The problem is that they never had to resist Russia in the first place.

If you eschew neutrality, you're against the person you're no longer neutral to and that person often takes offence...

It's two and a half years. Have you guys finally figured that out yet...?

Arguably in Ukraine's case it's been 16 years, since Putin's red line speech in 2008... 🙄

When Russia seized Crimea and started a civil war in the Donbass Ukraine was neutral. Apparently Russia wasn't going to leave that as an option for them

[giblets]

The problem is that they never had to resist Russia in the first place.

If you eschew neutrality, you're against the person you're no longer neutral to and that person often takes offence...

It's two and a half years. Have you guys finally figured that out yet...?

Arguably in Ukraine's case it's been 16 years, since Putin's red line speech in 2008... 🙄

They eschewed neutrality by getting rid of a president Russia likes, seems like "neutrality" actually means being submissive to Russia.

[Geronimo]

You haven't presented any links that says the ukrainians are in any danger. About Pokrovsk, it will probably take yet two years before it falls. All what the ukranians has in their sleeve is yet another defensive site that will destroy even more of the russian army.

I will not. We are all free to speculate. I'm not claiming some linked authority whom I trust to have reliable information *and* will impartially share it with the public is the source of my claim that if Ukraine doesn't have any surprises up it's sleeve that Vulehdar finally falling in concert with broad Russian advances including a real threat to Pokrovsk, indicates a real threat of the entire eastern front collapsing. Vulehdar and other indications of advance seem to indicate that Russia retains initiative along the entire eastern front which makes less room for a Ukrainian surprise.

The problem with waiting for the linked experts is that they have their own skin in the game based on prior predictions and they have almost as much trouble getting good information as the general public does.

[Geronimo]

On the other hand, if you have your own linked sources that show up that Pokrovsk is safe for another 2 years I guess I'd literally be happy to read that and I hope they make a convincing argument

[The Mad Monk]

That's right. They seized Crimea for the warm water port and ownership of the oil rights.

[The Mad Monk]

Also children. They want children.

[The Mad Monk]

That looks like a non sequitur, but it really isn't. They've been "rescuing" Ukrainian children all along.

[BeBMan]

You mean the port from which they've been operating their Black Sea Fleet from since the 1700s...?

How are borders of the 1700s relevant in intl relations today?

Why not those of 1500 or 300 BC or whatever else?

[BeBMan]

Never forget this classic:

[giblets]

How is not being a member of NATO in any way subservient to Russia...?

China is not a member of NATO, is China subservient to Russia?

Ukraine has chosen subservience though, Ukraine is subservient to the US - just like all the other members of NATO. 🙄

So if avoiding subservience is your key argument, then surely maintaining your neutrality is your best strategy.

As far as I know, the Euromaidan protests were triggered by the Ukrainian president announcing he would not be pursuing EU membership and would instead by joining some club headed by Russia. Who was talking about NATO membership?

[The Mad Monk]

I'm detecting a distinct lack of a grip of reality from the side who purports to be in injured party in this conflict 😅

Funny, I'm detecting the same thing.

[The Mad Monk]

Russia is rapidly becoming subservient to China, btw.

[Dinner]

It is nearly completely dependent upon communist China.

[Geronimo]

I'm detecting a distinct lack of a grip of reality from the side who purports to be in injured party in this conflict 😅

Russia is the "injured party" in this conflict? So, was Washington the injured party when leftists took over Grenada?

[N35t0r]

I think Mobius just yearns for the good old British empire.