Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

All of it and then some?

[PLATO]

Incremental approach my butt.

[PLATO]

I fear you may be right.

[Geronimo]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66450520 I wonder how much of this Berz and Serb believe?

[The Mad Monk]

So is Zelensky.

[N35t0r]

prepare for the push south to kiev

I'm still preparing BTW. I'm not sure what more I can do though. Got any pointers?

So far I have done:
-nothing

[N35t0r]

It's not exactly easy to differentiate a completely stalled offensive from one that is successfully grinding Russian strength and artillery support and will breakthrough in a month (or two, or six), especially from our side.

[Berzerker]

Prigozhin is Jewish

[BeBMan]

So the big offensive hasn't gone as everyone wanted (well except for Russia of course). Is it now a stalemate? A war of attrition? Can either side change the existing line of contact by much? Is the West seeing the beginning of "Ukraine fatigue" due to lack of progress? Is public support for supplying Ukraine beginning to lag in the U.S.?

Ukrainian progress is slow since early summer, they do say so themselves. OTOH this seems to mirror the situation in Kherson last year - there was early Russian postering about a failed Ukrainian offensive, followed by a long slog, and in the end Russian forces retreated.

Not that this is a guarantee for any outcome, but doesn't look impossible either.

[BeBMan]

Putin's dilemma is that he armed his Nazis better than the Russian army, which finally got him a Nazi rebellion against him.

[The Mad Monk]

prepare for the push south to kiev

[Berzerker]

https://youtu.be/bcwFyNbX5m8

today's analysis by Col Douglas Macgregor

The dilemma facing Putin is winning without drawing Nato in. Thats the rationale for his incremental approach but dragging it out also emboldens the west. Macgregor said Nato wont jump in if he does launch a major offensive and now even the Poles are losing interest.

[Geronimo]

What does all of this mean? To me, it means that now, more than ever, is the time to pour weapons and training into Ukraine. It would be almost impossible if Russian lines were not strained by these events. I believe it is only a matter of time before that stress becomes to much and we begin to see large collapses along the front.

The West likes a winner. When this happens, all the questions will go away. Is it weeks or months? Who knows? But strong support from the West make it inevitable. Let's hope the political will holds.

of course the opposite will occur. Ukraine's allies never forgo a chance to cut back their commitments.

[Berzerker]

a stalemate means more dead people, but at least Russia will continue bleeding... money well spent I hear

war would end fast if we stopped paying for it, Ukraine would deal and let Crimea and the Donbas go. I dont think they want to be ruled by Kiev anyway, ya know.

[PLATO]

So the big offensive hasn't gone as everyone wanted (well except for Russia of course). Is it now a stalemate? A war of attrition? Can either side change the existing line of contact by much? Is the West seeing the beginning of "Ukraine fatigue" due to lack of progress? Is public support for supplying Ukraine beginning to lag in the U.S.?

Or...do we have it all wrong?

Russia is obviously mobilizing obsolete armor to replace its horrific armor losses in the war. Ukraine has captured hundreds of Russian frontline tanks. 50 more Leopards were just committed to Ukraine from Belgian storage. 31 M1A1's are about to be delivered. The balance of power in armor is shifting toward Ukraine.

Russia has drastically decreased the usage rate of 152mm howitzers. They have increased the use of 120mm mortars. This is due to ammunition shortage. Ukraine has received hundreds of 155mm howitzers from the West. Cluster munitions being deployed are both plentiful for this weapon and highly effective against the type of defense Russia has implemented. Not to mention that just U.S. production , which was at 12,000 shells per month, will be up to 80,0000 shells per month by years end of regular HE rounds.

Ukraine benefits from interior lines of supply. It is much easier for them to move men and material around the LOC. Ukraine continues to degrade Russian Ground Lines of Communication (i.e. supply lines) by drastically reducing what can come up from Crimea. Moscow is 775 miles from Tokmak. Even Rostov-on-Don is well over 200 miles.

Long range weapons used by Russia are being utilized against mainly civilian targets. One would have to assume that Russian intelligence on high value targets is limited. Ukraine is beginning to receive longer range Western weapons and benefits from Western satellite intel that allows hitting high value targets. Russian missile production is estimated at about 25-30 missiles per month.

About the only advantage that Russia is maintaining is manpower (quantity has a quality of its own??). However, the Russian SOP is to move out of entrenched positions and fight in front of them when attacked. Ukraine's prioritizing conservation of force is leading to 3:1 to 10:1 casualty advantage for Ukraine. Russia has recruited over 221,000 soldiers this year and conscripted 300,000 last year. They did not have anywhere near the ability to even basically train this many soldiers prior to the war. It is likely that the vast majority of these are being sent to battle with little training. Ukraine, otoh, is having large number of troops trained in NATO countries.

Daily we hear where Ukraine has advanced "100 meters" here or there, so the momentum is still forward and the initiative is still theirs.

What does all of this mean? To me, it means that now, more than ever, is the time to pour weapons and training into Ukraine. It would be almost impossible if Russian lines were not strained by these events. I believe it is only a matter of time before that stress becomes to much and we begin to see large collapses along the front.

The West likes a winner. When this happens, all the questions will go away. Is it weeks or months? Who knows? But strong support from the West make it inevitable. Let's hope the political will holds.