Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

So since Polytubbies seemed to have missed it, pro-Russian demonstrations have been taking place in Moldova (that bit between Ukraine and Romania). Moldova used to have Black Sea ports, and after being rejected by Romania and Ukraine as 'partners' (Moldava is a basket case), seems to see this as a chance to ingratiate itself by opening some sort of western front, and maybe capturing a port or two.

Of course, Romania would probably be pulled in if a conflict occures.And this would give Putin the excuse he needs..

Transnistria has been "hot" before and is a pro-Russian separatist region. 1500 Russian troops are deployed there as "peacekeepers". Most of Moldova is pro Europe. Unless the Russian troops engage, I think it is unlikely that the separatist have the means to try and seize ports. They would certainly be engaged by the regular Moldovan armed forces if they chose to attack anywhere. Likely this will remain a frozen conflict unless Russia is able to link up with its forces in Transnistria by seizing the Black Sea Coast...an event that is looking more and more unlikely.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

the real and only end result of russias complete failure with ukriane is that china will never try the same with tiawan.

[PLATO]

the real and only end result of russias complete failure with ukriane is that china will never try the same with tiawan.

Hard to say that I think given the literally billions that China has spent and continues to spend to get ready for that. Still, I think they know the West is on to them and from what I can tell we are making some pretty strong moves to get ready ourselves. Maybe after Xi is gone (assuming they haven't attacked by the time he eventually is out of power) maybe someone a little less ambitious on that issue will arise. Hard to tell at this point....

[pchang]

I’m not so sure that Crimea can be returned to Ukraine. It would appear that close to half the people living there want to be part of Russia.

[Geronimo]

I’m not so sure that Crimea can be returned to Ukraine. It would appear that close to half the people living there want to be part of Russia.

That hasn't ever stopped Russia from taking land where more than half of the people there didn't want to live in Russia and for which there was zero legal basis for Russia to do so. So why should that stop Ukraine when it has the legal basis at least?

[Dinner]

So since Polytubbies seemed to have missed it, pro-Russian demonstrations have been taking place in Moldova (that bit between Ukraine and Romania). Moldova used to have Black Sea ports, and after being rejected by Romania and Ukraine as 'partners' (Moldava is a basket case), seems to see this as a chance to ingratiate itself by opening some sort of western front, and maybe capturing a port or two.

Of course, Romania would probably be pulled in if a conflict occures.And this would give Putin the excuse he needs..

The "protests" were in the Russian created break away mini-region of Transneistria. Russia originally targeted Moldova last year for annexation, we saw plans Lukashenko stupidly showed on state t.v. accidentally in Belarus near the beginning of the invasion. This caused Moldova to elect a pro-western government which Putin absolutely hates. He has since organized these protests and we have video of protesters admitting on tape at the protests that they are not from Moldova but are from Russia. Putin paid them to go to Moldova to protest supposed "crimes" against ethnic Russians.

This is exactly what Putin did in 2013 before his 2014 invasion of Ukraine.

[pchang]

That hasn't ever stopped Russia from taking land where more than half of the people there didn't want to live in Russia and for which there was zero legal basis for Russia to do so. So why should that stop Ukraine when it has the legal basis at least?

Because the people will actively fight against it. Which makes it untenable to take it unless you are willing to pretty much kill every single one of them.

[Berzerker]

I’m not so sure that Crimea can be returned to Ukraine. It would appear that close to half the people living there want to be part of Russia.

They voted on independence over 2 decades ago when the USSR fell apart, over 90% wanted independence from Ukraine. About the same as the Donbas.

[Geronimo]

Because the people will actively fight against it. Which makes it untenable to take it unless you are willing to pretty much kill every single one of them.

We'll see if they really do first.

[Geronimo]

They voted on independence over 2 decades ago when the USSR fell apart, over 90% wanted independence from Ukraine. About the same as the Donbas.

I can easily find results for Ukrainian independence from the USSR at that time which every region had 83%+ in favor with high turnout except for Crimea barely breaking 50% and with only 20% turnout. I can also find the results of the transcarpathia independence from Ukraine poll which got approval on the other western side of the country.

Do you have links for these late 20th century Donbas independence from Ukraine referenda?

[BeBMan]

Hard to say that I think given the literally billions that China has spent and continues to spend to get ready for that. Still, I think they know the West is on to them and from what I can tell we are making some pretty strong moves to get ready ourselves. Maybe after Xi is gone (assuming they haven't attacked by the time he eventually is out of power) maybe someone a little less ambitious on that issue will arise. Hard to tell at this point....

I'm wondering if China is behind this whole war in Ukraine...now jokes aside, China seems to be the only side that gets benefits currently:

- C gets more influence as Russia's is waning in Asia
- C gets cheap resources from Russia
- in result C's influence over Russia is also increasing, as Russia cannot afford to lose C's money and political support
- C can lean back safely while its competitors, be it US, Europe, or Russia inflict losses/damage/costs on eachother

[Berzerker]

"Another Crimean referendum in March 1994 asked three questions: ‘1.3 million voted, 78.4% of whom supported greater autonomy from Ukraine"

https://culturedarm.com/the-crimean-referendums-of-1991-and-1994/

"These questions included whether Russian should be declared an official language of Ukraine, whether Russian should be the language of administration in Donetsk and Luhansk, whether Ukraine should federalise, and whether Ukraine should have closer ties with the Commonwealth of Independent States, the remnants of the Soviet Union.

Almost 90% of voters voted in favor of these propositions; however, none of them were adopted: Ukraine remained a unitary state, Ukrainian was retained as the sole official language, and the Donbas gained no autonomy."

Those were in 1994

https://greekreporter.com/2022/09/30/history-donbas-donetsk-luhansk/

[BeBMan]

Ironically 1994 was also the year in which Russia demonstrated its stance on post-Soviet independency in the 1st Chechen War.

[Berzerker]

that was after these votes and the referendum sought autonomy from Ukraine

[BeBMan]

War in Chechnya is justified if there were referendums in Ukraine. Smart.

[BeBMan]

In other news: people have simply no respect anymore

“This war which was launched against us…” Lavrov’s statement has crowd burst into laughter

[PLATO]

- C can lean back safely while its competitors, be it US, Europe, or Russia inflict losses/damage/costs on eachother

Not sure that I totally agree with this one. Certainly costs have risen as countries across the globe are increasing their defense budgets, but they are also increasing arms production and preparedness. The increase in military industrialism and preparedness certainly does not benefit China.

The other three are for sure benefits to China, but they also come with a cost. Europe is looking at China with a much more skeptical eye these days and U.S. China paranoia is growing daily. If China begins to become isolated from the West, then the economy there will definitely suffer.