Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Geronimo]

Is Putin running out of convicted criminals? No worries, he just expanded the recruiting to those which are not convicted yet:



snipsnapped from https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrjrp7625mo

I suppose every non-premeditated murderer that failed to conceal their capital crime will now go straight to the nearest recruitment center. The murderers who successfully concealed their guilt on the other hand not only won't sign up, but also presumably, if they are charged anyway they'd probably still like their odds better in court.

[Dinner]

Didn't you read a book "Russia's Twilight War" or something like that which predicted the invasion even before Western satellites started noting the build up? Is everything you said here consistent with that author's take on the situation?

Yes, I have liked Peter Zeihan for years

[BeBMan]

Is Putin running out of convicted criminals? No worries, he just expanded the recruiting to those which are not convicted yet:

It’s no secret that prisoners have been recruited to fight in Ukraine, but BBC analysis can reveal how the initial focus on convicted criminals has shifted to include people yet to face trial.

The latest laws mean that both prosecution and defence lawyers are now legally obliged to inform people who are charged with most crimes that they have the option to go to war instead of court.

The legislation, passed in March 2024, means that if they sign up, the prosecution and any investigation will be stopped. Their cases will generally be closed completely at the end of the war.

snipsnapped from https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrjrp7625mo

[Geronimo]

Putin is simply upset that NATO membership would prevent him from rebuilding the Soviet/Russian Empire. Remember that, agriculturally and climatically Ukraine is the best and most productive part of the former Soviet Union. Putin desperately wants it for that reason plus demographically he desperately needs the population as Russia's demographics are collapsing. I don't see that ever working out due to the current war and the feelings that has created among the Ukrainian population.

That doesn't change Putin's desperate desires for empire though.

Didn't you read a book "Russia's Twilight War" or something like that which predicted the invasion even before Western satellites started noting the build up? Is everything you said here consistent with that author's take on the situation?

[Dinner]

so you're saying NATO is intrinsically hostile to the Russian Federation? how is that? Since when? what other states can it be regarded as intrinsically "hostile" to?

Putin is simply upset that NATO membership would prevent him from rebuilding the Soviet/Russian Empire. Remember that, agriculturally and climatically Ukraine is the best and most productive part of the former Soviet Union. Putin desperately wants it for that reason plus demographically he desperately needs the population as Russia's demographics are collapsing. I don't see that ever working out due to the current war and the feelings that has created among the Ukrainian population.

That doesn't change Putin's desperate desires for empire though.

[Geronimo]

It's a bit **** when one's main ally (the US), is principally motivated by occupying the territory of, subjugating, and enfeebling its supposed 'friends' (prime example in this case, Germany. But also UK, Japan, South Korea etc.)...

What's more ****ed up is that their friends gleefully accept this maltreatment!

Ukraine maintaining its independence by joining (actually, worse, never being able to actually join) NATO!? 🤣🤣🤣

More like doing a deal with the devil!

Ukraine LOST its independence by doing what the US wanted it to do. True independence is neutrality in this situation, IMO.

Do you think the Finns and the Swedes hate true independence and that's why they worked so hard to throw away their neutrality to join NATO?

[Geronimo]

Ukraine dropping their ambition to join NATO (and thus take sides) would have dispelled Putin's motive to attack.

If Putin attacked then, world opinion would have been completely different (not just the US and its vassal states) and he would have had zero support from the likes of China, for example. Putin's interest after the toppling of the Ukraine govt in 2014 was in maintaining Russia's Black Sea port in the face of a now hostile nation on its borders.

With Ukraine declaring neutrality, it could have still strengthened its military/ties with the EU etc. Perhaps even upheld its side of the Minsk bargain etc.

Yours is the fantasy, not the other way around. 🙄

so you're saying NATO is intrinsically hostile to the Russian Federation? how is that? Since when? what other states can it be regarded as intrinsically "hostile" to?

[Dinner]

After the war is settled it will join NATO as you well know.

[MOBIUS]

Because twice Russia made ceasefire agreements with Ukraine and it broke both of them and never bothered to implement a single one. There was also an international treaty (which Russia also signed) guaranteeing Ukraine's Independence and territorial integrity but Russia also broke that treaty. Clearly, Russia's word isn't worth anything. NATO membership will force Russia to actually stop attacking Ukraine.

Lastly, it is the will of the Ukrainian people and Russia has no say over what an independent country does.

Under NATO's current rules, Ukraine will NEVER become a member*, you nitwit!




*Ironically without Russian cooperation, which I think you'll agree is highly unlikely!

[MOBIUS]

Because twice Russia made ceasefire agreements with Ukraine and it broke both of them and never bothered to implement a single one. There was also an international treaty (which Russia also signed) guaranteeing Ukraine's Independence and territorial integrity but Russia also broke that treaty. Clearly, Russia's word isn't worth anything. NATO membership will force Russia to actually stop attacking Ukraine.

Lastly, it is the will of the Ukrainian people and Russia has no say over what an independent country does.

The Minsk treaties? Have you actually read up on those?

I suggest that you do.

[Dinner]

Germany made a terrible decision to close it nuclear power plants and become dependent upon Russian natural gas. Ukraine blew up the pipeline but Russia had already closed it down in an attempt to blackmail Germany. Lastly, Germany's demographics are collapsing and it's economy was always going to decline as the baby boomers retired with few people to replace them in the work force.

Germans largely forgot how to have children 40 years ago and now there are lots of elderly but few people under 40.

[MOBIUS]

It's a bit **** when one's main ally (the US), is principally motivated by occupying the territory of, subjugating, and enfeebling its supposed 'friends' (prime example in this case, Germany. But also UK, Japan, South Korea etc.)...

What's more ****ed up is that their friends gleefully accept this maltreatment!

Ukraine maintaining its independence by joining (actually, worse, never being able to actually join) NATO!? 🤣🤣🤣

More like doing a deal with the devil!

Ukraine LOST its independence by doing what the US wanted it to do. True independence is neutrality in this situation, IMO.

[MOBIUS]

At least you realized that it's not Russian territory. Maybe there's hope for ya

Whereas the US has created conditions where it has directly benefitted from (economically) the en****ing of Germany's economy, so the jury is still out on you. 😉

[Dinner]

I see you geniuses still have nothing of substance to add...

Can one of you at least tell me why it was a good idea for Ukraine to not simply drop its stated desire to join NATO, especially considering it would never be able to join NATO while part of their territory is occupied. Doubly stupid, if you ask me!

I can only assume they thought Putin was bluffing - because otherwise they deliberately sought a confrontation and the destruction that is currently being wrought.

Everyone is also being coy over the 'successes' of Kursk too... 🤔

C'mon geniuses, something substantive please. How is Ukraine supposed to win...?

Because twice Russia made ceasefire agreements with Ukraine and it broke both of them and never bothered to implement a single one. There was also an international treaty (which Russia also signed) guaranteeing Ukraine's Independence and territorial integrity but Russia also broke that treaty. Clearly, Russia's word isn't worth anything. NATO membership will force Russia to actually stop attacking Ukraine.

Lastly, it is the will of the Ukrainian people and Russia has no say over what an independent country does.

[MOBIUS]

Because they wanted to be independent from Russia. That Russia wouldn't have invaded them if Ukraine had dropped it's ambition is a fantasy that only you and other Putin cheerleaders believe in.

Ukraine dropping their ambition to join NATO (and thus take sides) would have dispelled Putin's motive to attack.

If Putin attacked then, world opinion would have been completely different (not just the US and its vassal states) and he would have had zero support from the likes of China, for example. Putin's interest after the toppling of the Ukraine govt in 2014 was in maintaining Russia's Black Sea port in the face of a now hostile nation on its borders.

With Ukraine declaring neutrality, it could have still strengthened its military/ties with the EU etc. Perhaps even upheld its side of the Minsk bargain etc.

Yours is the fantasy, not the other way around. 🙄