Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[PLATO]

Uhmn, that is a quote from a movie

Of course it is a quote from a movie! Red October to be specific. That doesn't make it less of an interesting statement though.

I'm pretty sure that the Russians expected a fast victory so they could turn Ukraine into a new Belarus domain. I'm also pretty sure that they in no circumstances saw them self in what is going on now.

Totally agree, but that doesn't mean that they haven't formulated a new plan due to where they are. The question here was "long war" or "Quick war" as a Russian goal. The presenter favors "quick war" due, mainly, to high usage of limited weapon systems and expenditure of newly conscripted troops. The question I raise is "shouldn't we consider that the Russians are capable of thinking things through just as much as this guy?"

Nukes ? Well, I'm pretty sure that Putin won't use that because of his history - he knows what using nukes mean, but it seems that there are russian nutcases that doesn't understand the MAD concept.

Agree here as well. I think Putin may have considered tactical nukes, but the West made it obvious to him that using them was the end of the Russian Army in Ukraine.

[Jon Miller]

The issue is that the Russians have revealed themselves to be weak and incompetent (due to corruption, primarily). Thus we are now led to have doubts of Russian competence, just like we were pretty sure of Russian competence in February and March. Now I guess it would be reasonable to say that just like we were wrong to be sure in February and March, so we should expect to be wrong about our judgements now... but I think that shouldn't change our judgements, just our confidence in our judgements.

I do think that pushing a peaceful resolution right now (which means that Ukraine doesn't get the full victory that they might deserve) might be the most logical thing to do, when one considers the probabilities.

JM

[N35t0r]

The issue is that the Russians have revealed themselves to be weak and incompetent (due to corruption, primarily). Thus we are now led to have doubts of Russian competence, just like we were pretty sure of Russian competence in February and March. Now I guess it would be reasonable to say that just like we were wrong to be sure in February and March, so we should expect to be wrong about our judgements now... but I think that shouldn't change our judgements, just our confidence in our judgements.

I do think that pushing a peaceful resolution right now (which means that Ukraine doesn't get the full victory that they might deserve) might be the most logical thing to do, when one considers the probabilities.

JM

Russia lost the first Chechen war, made peace, and faked some bombings a couple of years later to go back and flatten the place to the stone age.

Six years ago they invaded and unilaterally annexed Crimea, and since some months later have been supplying and arming separatists in the east.

What makes you think anything signed by Russia's is worth more than the paper it's written on?

[Berzerker]

Eastern Ukrainians were attacked for not supporting a right wing coup that removed the man they overwhelmingly voted for. Imagine if Jan 6 was a coup and Trump sent his right wing militias to attack Oregon for rejecting his authority. Why did the Minsk Accords fail? Wasn't Russia. Why did Zelensky get elected on a peace platform and do next to nothing to end the war? Because he's a puppet, the Ukrainian right wing and the US wanted the war in the Donbas and Zelensky would have been killed if he actually tried to end it. Notice how Azov didn't attack Crimea? We drew that line to keep Russia from getting really pissed off, but the people of the Donbas were an acceptable target.

Follow the $$$..... Wall St is ripping us off, Ukrainians are ripping us off, an African minister recently said terrorists are getting weapons from Ukraine. And now some congresscritter from the state of Washington (Adam Smith - D) has accused people who want to audit the money trail of spreading Russian propaganda. Thats why they hate Trump, this war wouldn't be happening if Trump was in the WH.

I suppose there are several schools of thought, one seeks to weaken Russia and divide it from our western subjects (mainly Germany) because Russia has resources for sale and we want a cut of the action and do not want Russia and Germany getting friendly. Another (the Trump camp) sees China as the big threat and sought to ease tensions with Russia to weaken their alliance. Both are treating China as the threat and want to deal with Russia with the carrot or the stick.

[Berzerker]

Interview with Angela Merkel, one subject was the Minsk Accord - she said that was to give Ukraine time to build up its military, not to end the war in the Donbas

[BeBMan]

The issue is that the Russians have revealed themselves to be weak and incompetent (due to corruption, primarily). Thus we are now led to have doubts of Russian competence, just like we were pretty sure of Russian competence in February and March. Now I guess it would be reasonable to say that just like we were wrong to be sure in February and March, so we should expect to be wrong about our judgements now... but I think that shouldn't change our judgements, just our confidence in our judgements.

I do think that pushing a peaceful resolution right now (which means that Ukraine doesn't get the full victory that they might deserve) might be the most logical thing to do, when one considers the probabilities.

JM

Given the massivev loss of life already ending the war would be the responsible thing to do indeed. But Putin himself signaled now it could be protracted, which means he is in no mood to give up his goals:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/07/vladimir-putin-says-russias-war-on-ukraine-could-be-long-term-process

The question now is if he really thinks he can still achieve his maximalist goals, or if he moved himself into a corner where he's afraid ending the war without success would damage his position at home irreparably.

Otoh there's - understandably - no appetite in Ukraine for compromises that allow Putin to declare some sort of victory now and then do the same again as soon as his military recovered.

[Berzerker]

Zelensky is Time's man of the year

he survived 2022 without being disappeared by the CIA, Ukrainian Nazis and his own military

credit to black in the empire

[N35t0r]

Also, he rallied his nation against an attack from Russia, who is committing genocide and war crimes against them. But yeah, this is probably minor.

[Berzerker]

Russia wont kill him for making peace...something the man of the year would have done before this got out of hand. But Biden found out he was trying to make a deal and Boris hopped a plane to nix it.

[N35t0r]

Interview with Angela Merkel, one subject was the Minsk Accord - she said that was to give Ukraine time to build up its military, not to end the war in the Donbas

Well, yeah, you can't end the war in Donbass without Russia stopping to funnel equipment and 'volunteers'.

[Berzerker]

Minsk would have ended the war

[BeBMan]

Like those funny Rusich folks...

[PLATO]

Eastern Ukrainians were attacked for not supporting a right wing coup that removed the man they overwhelmingly voted for. Imagine if Jan 6 was a coup and Trump sent his right wing militias to attack Oregon for rejecting his authority. Why did the Minsk Accords fail? Wasn't Russia. Why did Zelensky get elected on a peace platform and do next to nothing to end the war? Because he's a puppet, the Ukrainian right wing and the US wanted the war in the Donbas and Zelensky would have been killed if he actually tried to end it. Notice how Azov didn't attack Crimea? We drew that line to keep Russia from getting really pissed off, but the people of the Donbas were an acceptable target.

Follow the $$$..... Wall St is ripping us off, Ukrainians are ripping us off, an African minister recently said terrorists are getting weapons from Ukraine. And now some congresscritter from the state of Washington (Adam Smith - D) has accused people who want to audit the money trail of spreading Russian propaganda. Thats why they hate Trump, this war wouldn't be happening if Trump was in the WH.

I suppose there are several schools of thought, one seeks to weaken Russia and divide it from our western subjects (mainly Germany) because Russia has resources for sale and we want a cut of the action and do not want Russia and Germany getting friendly. Another (the Trump camp) sees China as the big threat and sought to ease tensions with Russia to weaken their alliance. Both are treating China as the threat and want to deal with Russia with the carrot or the stick.

Sorry...This is ridiculous. Yanukovych was removed from the presidency with over 72% of the Parliament voting to remove him. This is like saying that if Trump had been convicted in the Senate during one of his impeachment trials that removing him from office would be a coup. It would not justify...say Alabama...any region of the country declaring independence.

The Minsk accords were signed by Ukraine basically at the point of a gun. Why would they do anything to promote a settlement that was imposed on them by a foreign power concerning their own territory?

Wall Street has always been ripping us off so trying to apply that to Ukraine is non sequitur.

It should be clear to nearly anyone that Russia is an aggressor state. They have provided examples in Georgia and to some extend Moldova besides what they have been doing in Ukraine since 2014.

Finally, if you think Trump would not be double crossed by Putin, then you clearly haven't been following who Putin really is. He is definitely a megalomaniac, a ruthless killer, and an unreliable partner in anything. He is about power and money...nothing else. We should all understand now that the Ukraine war was inevitable as long as Ukraine was not a part of NATO...regardless of who the U.S. President was.

[PLATO]

Well, yeah, you can't end the war in Donbass without Russia stopping to funnel equipment and 'volunteers'.

The war will never truly be over until Russia is expelled from the Donbas and Crimea AND Ukraine joins NATO....that is as long as Putin is in power...

[N35t0r]

Even without Putin in power, I would still like Ukraine in NATO and/or the EU.

Tell you what, we can trade them for Hungary.

[Berzerker]

Sorry...This is ridiculous. Yanukovych was removed from the presidency with over 72% of the Parliament voting to remove him. This is like saying that if Trump had been convicted in the Senate during one of his impeachment trials that removing him from office would be a coup. It would not justify...say Alabama...any region of the country declaring independence.

The Minsk accords were signed by Ukraine basically at the point of a gun. Why would they do anything to promote a settlement that was imposed on them by a foreign power concerning their own territory?

Wall Street has always been ripping us off so trying to apply that to Ukraine is non sequitur.

It should be clear to nearly anyone that Russia is an aggressor state. They have provided examples in Georgia and to some extend Moldova besides what they have been doing in Ukraine since 2014.

Finally, if you think Trump would not be double crossed by Putin, then you clearly haven't been following who Putin really is. He is definitely a megalomaniac, a ruthless killer, and an unreliable partner in anything. He is about power and money...nothing else. We should all understand now that the Ukraine war was inevitable as long as Ukraine was not a part of NATO...regardless of who the U.S. President was.

The right wing massacred a bunch of people at a protest to blame the President and it worked, that was a coup. Victoria Nuland was recorded choosing the next President 2-3 weeks before it happened and thats who replaced him. Trump's MAGA didn't send a squad of snipers to shoot hundreds of people and he's accused of a coup. The BBC interviewed one of the snipers, he was told to shoot cops and protesters. Azov's guns were pointing at the Donbas, not the other way around. The people of the Donbas were defending themselves, they didn't send 'volunteers' to attack Kiev.

How are Wall St's motives and war profiteering a non sequitur? I think your understanding is the non sequitur, this was not inevitable - it followed an 8 year war against ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine and threats of impending Nato membership. This didn't happen on Trump's watch so that double cross didn't happen. Trump was arming those Nazis and Putin still held back, but the return of the Obama/Biden neocon agenda led to this disaster. Please tell me you understand the US (not Trump) wanted Putin to invade and tried to make it happen. As for Putin, the US makes him look angelic.

[Dinner]

Yawn. I do get tired of people repeating debunked Russian propaganda.