Prediction Thread: When Will Ukraine Conquer Russia

[Proteus_MST]

In all fairness, the Russians ARE driving them across the boarder to deliver them. That does make it a little easier.

Aye ... a much better service than the western countries provide

[PLATO]

Lt. General Igor Kolesnikov is the current head of the 12th Main Directorate. The final decision to implement an order to use nuclear weapons would fall to him. I did find one article about him at

https://www.newsy.com/stories/this-russian-force-stands-between-putin-and-a-nuclear-strike/

Not much other info I can find on him. It looks like he may have come up through GRU instead of KGB so he may not be as closely tied to Putin's network as others, but the article describes the 12th Main Directorate as somewhat apolitical, professional, and mission focused. I am not sure there is anyway to predict how he would react to an order to use nuclear weapons.

[N35t0r]

The US' system, where technically all you need is the president ordering the strike, is the one that is bonkers

[Serb]

:facepalm:

[Geronimo]

There is btw. one nation which puts not only germany but even the USA to shame, when it comes to deliveering heavy weapon systems.

This country is Russia.

Russia (according to informations of the british MoD) already delivered more than 440 MBTs and around 650 other armoured vehicles to Ukraina.
Very likely more than half of the ukrainian tank forces now uses russian Tanks

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...62947150938113

I don't get why NATO and other countries allied to Ukraine have been so stingy with armored vehicles. If they want the war over obviously massive assistance to Ukraine is the fastest route and there is no place the armored vehicles would serve the allied donators more efficiently than in Ukraine and no better time than ASAP. Its a disgrace that so many of these countries have donated zero armored vehicles to date.

[Thoth]

There's no need for NATO to be contributing more tanks when Russia is being so generous with gifting away their tanks.

[Geronimo]

BS. Even if Russia gave them all of their tanks Ukraine must wrap this up as decisively as possible as quickly as possible. Russia is not even giving them half of the Russian tanks.

[N35t0r]

Lots of armored vehicles, but the only tanks donated so far have been models that Ukraine already has (mostly from former Warsaw pact countries), in some cases in exchange from current or future equipment from the west. Like Slovenia, they sent like 30 T-55s, and in exchange Germany gave them some military vehicles, or Poland, who will be (slowly) getting new Leopard IIs dress off the production line (starting next year, match) in exchange for their old T-72s, or Slovakia sending 30 IFVs (no tanks though) in exchange for 14 older Leopard II A4s.

The reasons are several, but mostly:
Logistics. It's hard to supply a lot of very different tank models. Former Warsaw pact models at least share a lot of parts similarities and use the same ammo, western tanks all use NATO ammo which is incompatible. The electronics are also different. This can bring problems in the field.
Furthermore, western tanks are generally heavier than former USSR tanks (M1A2 SEP v3 67 tonnes, Leopard 2 A7 66 tonnes, T-72B3M, T-80U and T-90M all are in the ballpark of 45-48 tonnes). This means that existing tank transport infrastructure is not required to handle them, and not all bridges and roads that can handle current tanks could support them (including military engineering pontoon bridges for use in an offensive, for example). This also creates logistics nightmares if no proper planning and preparation is done.
Finally, and no least important, it still takes a lot of time to train not only the crews to use the new tank, but also all the support and maintenance crews that will be also needed in order for any new tanks to be able to be more than a very expensive piece of steel after the first couple of days.

All this combined with the fact that the only western country with a stock of functioning spare tanks is the US, and M1A2s also have a further complication with their very power hungry turbine engine, which kind of relies on the amazing logistical tail that the US army can provide in order to function effectively.


I hope that with the lull in fighting coming with the mud season, and Ukraine's more stable position, can mean something will be done in this regard soon.

[BeBMan]

Aye ... a much better service than the western countries provide

I think with such an unpredictable leader Russia should also give up its nukes for security guarantees from Ukraine

[PLATO]

I think with such an unpredictable leader Russia should also give up its nukes for security guarantees from Ukraine

Nukes are an interesting subject wrt Ukraine. They obviously have the technology and raw material to create one. One has to wonder if they maybe have some kind of clandestine op going to be able to respond if Russia were to nuke Kyiv...........

[Uncle Sparky]

The soviets used to have nukes stationed in Ukraine (maybe). Maybe Ukraine doesn't have nukes like Israel doesn't have nukes?

[N35t0r]

No, they gave those back to Russia in exchange for a Russian guarantee to respect Ukrainian borders and protect them against other nuclear-equipped countries, further demonstrating that any deals signed with Russia aren't even worth the paper they're written on.

[Berzerker]

was Ukraine joining Nato and an 8 year long war in the Donbas part of the deal?

[EPW]

Russian bridges falling down...falling down...

[Egbert]

In all fairness, the Russians ARE driving them across the boarder to deliver them. That does make it a little easier.

Serb has not been poasting much. What if he is too busy delivering tanks to talk to us?

[BeBMan]

Russian bridges falling down...falling down...

I blame squirrels.


Edit: Oh and happy birthday Putin. May it be your last.

[BeBMan]

Following the bridge thing Putin acts decisively:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been briefed about the "emergency" on the Crimean bridge.

He has ordered a government commission to be established to investigate the incident, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said.

Peskov told the Interfax news agency: "The president has instructed the prime minister to form a government commission to establish the causes of the incident and eliminate its aftermath as soon as possible.

(...)

Bibs

[PLATO]

One step closer for Ukraine. The symbolism of the Kerch bridge strike should be enormous in Crimea. Reports of long lines at gas stations as the Crimean population realizes the significance of the supply line. Medvedev had stated earlier that Ukraine knew “what the target will be” if they hit the bridge. Russia’s response will be telling both to capabilities and intentions I think.

[Geronimo]

I think Ukraine and its allies aren't doing a good enough job of making it clear that all options, especially desperate escalatory options like WMD use, will only lead to a worse outcome than making an excuse to cut and run and retreat from occupied Ukraine. Russia is still being allowed to believe the enormous coalition arrayed behind Ukraine could be made to accept Russia gaining territory at Ukraine's expense.

The dangerous thing is that while they have done a decent job underlining that nothing conventionally that Russia could do in Ukraine would make them abandon Ukraine they have not made clear that WMD usage in or outside of Russia cannot deter them.

They must make clear that if Russia crosses that Rubicon, it will lose no matter the risk to the Ukrainian allies.

If Russia (or any state or world stage actor for that matter) profits in any way whatsoever from WMD use, the entire world is screwed and total Armageddon Apocalypse becomes inevitable even if it would be a months or at most a few years away. The nuclear weapon attacks in Japan in WW2 only got a pass because of novelty and essentially served as a horrific demonstration but nonetheless they also served to incentivize their future use. At this point nobody will hesitate to build more nukes if able after a profitable nuke attack and many states would either attempt to similarly profit themselves or more likely seek to successfully engage in successful counter force first strikes against their potential nuclear armed rivals.

[BeBMan]

If Russia profits in any way whatsoever from WMD use, the entire world is screwed and total Armageddon Apocalypse becomes inevitable even if it would be a months or at most a few years away.

How does Russia profit when, as you write "the entire world is screwed and total Armageddon Apocalypse becomes inevitable"?

[Geronimo]

How does Russia profit when, as you write "the entire world is screwed and total Armageddon Apocalypse becomes inevitable"?

I didn't say endless net profit. There is such a thing as short term profit and it can be notoriously destructive. Any profit in using nukes, however short term, so long as it was viewed as end of the immediate chain of events,would be expected to start the deathspiral of events.

if Russia nuked even one target and its enemies made concessions of any kind as a result or if the material exchange resulting from the target's retribution was a greater net gain for Russia than the cost of the strike, I maintain the events that follow would lead to the end.

[BeBMan]

Ahh I see, short-term profit that causes Armageddon-style-long-term-non-profit. Let's hope Russian planners/thinkers are on par with the intellectual brilliance found on old gaming sites

[PLATO]

Although they are playing a real game of Civ, we have played out all kinds of scenarios thousands of times. They should listen to us.

[Geronimo]

Ahh I see, short-term profit that causes Armageddon-style-long-term-non-profit. Let's hope Russian planners/thinkers are on par with the intellectual brilliance found on old gaming sites

Apparently they aren't. Escalate to de-escalate is a thing with these planners. They envision that they can scare everybody into giving them what they want with a nuclear strike and then nobody will try to emulate that success in the event that their plan actually pays off.