Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[BeBMan]

You know things are running well when you buy drones from Iran, and get assault troops from Syria.

[Geronimo]

Apart from energy and raw materials arms sales are the major revenue source for Russia. I wonder how the war is effecting that? On the one hand buyers like combat proven systems but on the other, AFAIK none of Russia's indigenous arms is demonstrating anything other than disappointing performance. Further, while ordinarily production of arms for domestic use can be increased by greatly scaling up production with an export component, supply chain issues will surely mean exports will often compete for domestic production.

My guess is Russia will attempt to sell production contracts but deliveries will be greatly delayed in deference to domestic needs.

Perhap this war will have a long term impact on Russia's presence in the arms market?

[PLATO]

I certainly thought Russia would make more, and faster progress. How wrong I was

IIRC there were military folks before the war who thought the war would turn into an endless guerilla style thing when Ukraine's regular military had been defeated.

But many also pointed out that the estimated no. of troops Russia had on Ukraine's borders in late Feb would simply not be enough to occupy a country of the size of Ukraine, since the invader would need a large numerical advantage over the defender.

I think those beliefs were based on the U.S. Iraq experience. The U.S. sent in to few troops to offer a real occupation and had to constantly combat an insurgency. The overwhelming firepower advantage made quick work of large scale organized resistance. I think most analyst were assuming that Russia would have a similar experience with Ukraine due to their "on paper" advantages in firepower and doctrine. It turns out that Russia's army was nowhere near the capability that it showed on paper. I guess the opposite could be said of Ukraine's military. Western training for 8 years appears to have made as significant a difference as Western arms supplies at this point to me. I continually see the U.S. military talking about how skillfully the Ukrainians are utilizing what they have.

[PLATO]

Apart from energy and raw materials arms sales are the major revenue source for Russia. I wonder how the war is effecting that? On the one hand buyers like combat proven systems but on the other, AFAIK none of Russia's indigenous arms is demonstrating anything other than disappointing performance. Further, while ordinarily production of arms for domestic use can be increased by greatly scaling up production with an export component, supply chain issues will surely mean exports will often compete for domestic production.

My guess is Russia will attempt to sell production contracts but deliveries will be greatly delayed in deference to domestic needs.

Perhap this war will have a long term impact on Russia's presence in the arms market?

I think that it already is. While the reasons you have given are definitely valid, it seems that sanctions are causing a lot of countries to be hesitant to work with Russia on arms sales and some even cancelling existing orders to avoid being sanctioned themselves.

[pchang]

Or cancelling because they want better stuff

[pchang]

Is there a way to see who actually voted for which option in the poll?

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

Try clicking on the figure to the right of each option...

[pchang]

Berzerker, BeBman, and EPW were quite prescient.

[N35t0r]

https://twitter.com/bnonews/status/1565241174226501637?s=21

Just what is wrong with Russian windows?

[BeBMan]

Looks like people who do this...

Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, the Lukoil board called for the conflict to end as soon as possible, expressing its sympathy to victims of "this tragedy".

...should be particularly careful with any windows

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62750584

[dannubis]

He criticized Putin but had such remorse he felt/was compelled to jumping out of a window.

[Uncle Sparky]

In Russia, Windows crash YOU!

[N35t0r]

I've seen reports going around that Russia has less than a month of munition stockpiles (mainly artillery shells) left. After that they'll be limited to current production only.

[Geronimo]

I've seen reports going around that Russia has less than a month of munition stockpiles (mainly artillery shells) left. After that they'll be limited to current production only.

Source?

[Geronimo]

There is definitely a history of disinformation use by both Ukraine and Russia as well as by most of the states that are involved through material contributions to one side of the conflict. We hear both that Russia's situation as an invader and an occupier is desperate as well as that their problems are superficial and their material advantage overwhelming.

I wonder how long it will be before something irrefutable occurs, such as the earlier painful withdrawal from Kiev or the sinking of the Moskva that sheds light on where the disinformation has been lately?