Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[Berzerker]

getting nuked by Russia wont end the USA but it will end Russia?

hey, we can win a nuclear war!

[BeBMan]

Re the mobilization thing:

Russia has dismissed speculation that it will declare all-out war in Ukraine in the coming days as “nonsense” amid speculation from western officials that President Vladimir Putin could use the 9 May Victory Parade to announce an escalation of military action.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there was no truth to the rumours “at all”.

(Guardian newsstream)

So, as I understand the Kremlin's statements, it means that those rumours about war/mobilizatiion are either nonsense or spot on

[dannubis]

but back to the thread - i think it's clear to all that russia can not 'conquer ukraine'. russia will not use nukes - as it would be the end of russia for sure (and not the end for the US). so whats the point. with that said - what will it take for russia to stop? will it just be attrition? i think probably - i dont see russia doing this forever - there would be nothing in it for putins inner circle.

There was nothing in Afghanistan either (or Vietnam for that matter). Yet people kept on throwing recourses and lives in those empty pits for years...

[pchang]

It is no longer about what Putin can gain, but what he is afraid to lose.

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[Apocalypse]

I was really pessimistic on day one but now I almost think it's more likely that Ukraine + West support will push Russia out of Crimea than Russia is able to get enough of the South to get a land bridge to Moldova.

[Geronimo]

I was really pessimistic on day one but now I almost think it's more likely that Ukraine + West support will push Russia out of Crimea than Russia is able to get enough of the South to get a land bridge to Moldova.

Surely Crimea is considerably more defensible than rest of the Ukrainian coast, especially if an invasion of Crimea lacks any control of the black sea/ naval presence

[N35t0r]

Surely Crimea is considerably more defensible than rest of the Ukrainian coast, especially if an invasion of Crimea lacks any control of the black sea/ naval presence

If Ukraine managers to kick the Russians out of the rest of their country, then the bridge at Kerch will be easy to destroy, and any ships in range of giving support will also be in range of Ukrainian weapons.

I'd say that recapturing Kherson and crossing the Dnieper would be a harder thing for Ukraine to do than crossing thePerekop isthmus.

[pchang]

Looks like another ship got hit (Admiral Makarov).

[My Wife Hates CIV]

[Trillion]

I don't know why Ukraine just didn't withdraw from Mariupol, they have no way of supporting it. They should have pulled those units and put them in other areas. Lots of propaganda from both sides coming out about that area these days.

[N35t0r]

I don't know why Ukraine just didn't withdraw from Mariupol, they have no way of supporting it. They should have pulled those units and put them in other areas. Lots of propaganda from both sides coming out about that area these days.

The city was surrounded, they couldn't have easily withdrawn

[Trillion]

I thought maybe in the early days they might have had a chance to withdraw. I forget the timeline of events. But it really wasn't an ideal situation for the Ukraine.

[Uncle Sparky]

Canada's PM, deputy PM, and foreign minister are in Kiev today to reopen our embassy. Our deputy PM studied in Ukraine, is fluent in Russian and Ukrainian, and was kicked out by the Soviets; she's been banned by Russia since the '90s

Jill Biden met with Zelensky's wife in western Ukraine..

I think Trump still wants to open a hotel in Moscow.

[Berzerker]

ah Trump, the good old days... And there I was gonna think even if Biden is a disaster domestically at least he got us out of Afghanistan. But nope, we just had a change of address.