Prediction Thread: When Will Russia Conquer Ukraine

[Wezil]

But, but, Nazis and Biden!!

[Geronimo]

It's worth noting that the legality of the Maidan stuff is on par with that of the American or French Revolutions, not to mention others. They were all illegal vs. the previous order. That's the nature of these things.

Ukraine did not only have a "coup", it had democratic elections since 2014, which confirm the pro-western course. If anything support - and so legitimacy - of the post-2014 developments has been rising, to a good deal due to Putins actions over the last 8 years.

Sure. But while the orange revolution deposed Viktor Yanukovych after serious revelations of electoral fraud forced a second election which he lost, the later Euromaidan fiasco resulted in a duly elected (with international observers vouching for lack of obvious electoral fraud) government being replaced by an unelected one.

If you want to say Euromaidan was a normal legitimate revolution then, had the trump mob successfully overturned the election of Biden on Jan 06 of 2021 then we find ourselves having to call that legitimate as well.

[Wezil]

Canada would have been forced to invade to put down the Russian backed Nazi coup in Washington.

[Geronimo]

Canada would have been forced to invade to put down the Russian backed Nazi coup in Washington.

Only after sensible border states that seceded in the aftermath to try to join Canada were prevented from doing so for 8 years by trumps military campaign to ethnically cleanse those states of Canadians through massive shelling and deployments of Nazis.

[Wezil]

Well of course, but that would be inevitable. You guys don't let states leave your political union either. We have precedent.

[Wezil]

[BeBMan]

If you want to say Euromaidan was a normal legitimate revolution then, had the trump mob successfully overturned the election of Biden on Jan 06 of 2021 then we find ourselves having to call that legitimate as well.

I see no long-standing popular support (in the sense of majority support) for the Jan 6 events, but we do have a measure of popular support for Biden vs Trump - which is the pres election won by Biden.

[Geronimo]

I see no long-standing popular support (in the sense of majority support) for the Jan 6 events, but we do have a measure of popular support for Biden vs Trump - which is the pres election won by Biden.

Yanukovych also had popular support and larger mandate than Biden.

I maintain that Euromaidan is only as legitimate as a second trump term resulting from 06jan2021 rioting would have been. Which is basically no legitimacy until another fair election could occur.

Euromaidan was wrong. They should have gotten their revolution at the ballot box

[-Jrabbit]

None of that justifies Putin's invasion.

[BeBMan]

Euromaidan was wrong. They should have gotten their revolution at the ballot box

I disagree. Post 2014 development shows where the legitimacy is.

[Wezil]

Was a free and fair election available in 2014 Ukraine? I really like things to be settled through the ballot box but that isn't always an option.

[Berzerker]

would you trust an election following a Nazi/US coup?

they didn't do this for democracy

[Wezil]

It was neither a "Nazi" nor "US" coup. I don't have the same faith in Jimmy Dore that you have.

I'd take this argument more seriously if I believed you gave a crap about either Ukraine or Nazi's. . I mentioned before (and you avoided before) the prevalence of fascists in the US Republican party but I have yet to see a single post from you about this. I believe this is just a tool for you to attack Democrats.

[Berzerker]

Jimmy Dore is just a messenger. The EU investigator reported the snipers were working for somebody on the coalition side, not Moscow or the Ukrainian govt.

As for what I care about, I recently learned my govt (including Trump and the GOP) was arming and training Nazis to kill people in Ukraine to poke at Putin. Thats evil and it puts my life and the lives of people I care about in danger.

[BeBMan]

Yanukovych became pres in 2010, and afaik, the election was ok, so he was seen a the legitimate guy. But the situation changed over time, and in 2013/14 there was a major conflict in Ukraine mainly about the question of further EU approach or Russia friendly course.

Yanukovych was ousted in result of that.

Now there's a large amount of stuff/media coverage/whatnot back and forth about the actual turn of events. So far I've seen positions regarding "who shot demonstrators" (that it happened as such seems undisputed) that are:

- Yanukovych's security service
- Anti-Russian folks in general
- Anti-Russian NeoNazis
- US operatives/CIA
- Russian operatives/GRU

(maybe more)

How much of it is conclusive is a completely different question

[Uncle Sparky]

Canada has most of the world's top snipers... I'm peeved we don't get mentioned in the conspiracy!

[BeBMan]

I also forgot to mention that Biden's behind everything

[The Mad Monk]

How can Canada possibly have the top snipers? You never shoot at anything smaller than a moose!

[Geronimo]

I disagree. Post 2014 development shows where the legitimacy is.

On that point we don't seem to disagree. As I just said, until another fair election could occur. I am not aware of any extraordinary issues with the subsequent Ukrainian elections. Zelensky is a legitimate leader in a legally legitimate Ukrainian government. I maintain that fair elections can legitimatize an illegitimate government. That said I cannot accept Euromaiden itself as legitimate.

To go further with the hypothetical successful 06JAN2021 pro trump riot example, if that had occurred I would not recognize the riots as legitimate at any point but after fair and free elections that followed I would recognize the government as having re-attained legitimacy.

[Berzerker]

Illegal coups don't justify any of what Russia has done in response

Only after sensible border states that seceded in the aftermath to try to join Canada were prevented from doing so for 8 years by trumps military campaign to ethnically cleanse those states of Canadians through massive shelling and deployments of Nazis.

sounds like a justification

[Geronimo]

sounds like a justification

It is. And about equally plausible in both settings.

Ukraine has an azov battalion and exchanges artillery fire for 8 years and you call that deployment of Nazis and massive shelling.

tell me berz since Euromaidan, how many people have died to separatist and Russian shells and how many from Ukrainian shells?

Can we call it genocide or ethnic cleansing if it's anywhere near even, let alone with higher loyalist casualties?

[Berzerker]

so if you're in charge of Russia and you see a Nazi/US backed coup next door and Nazis show up near your border to kill ethnic Russians how long would you wait before intervening to end the war?

I imagine Russians living in the area were volunteering to defend their kin across the border, I bet Russians were demanding Putin stop the attacks. He helped but it took 8 years of this before he invaded Ukraine. I think he's okay with Zelensky as PM, at least he wanted to end the war but the US and Nazis outvoted him 2-1.

And I think his demands are reasonable

1 stop fighting
2 Crimea stays Russian
3 breakaway Republics are independent
4 constitution amended to ensure neutrality

under Minsk the Republics would have remained in Ukraine but with autonomy... everyone agreed to Minsk... on paper. But the Ukrainian govt never implemented it, neither the US or the Nazis wanted peace. Thats just the reality.

[-Jrabbit]

Your supposition/assumption (the "if" part) is extremely problematic, and your "I imagine" scenario is pure fantasy.

All sovereign nations are free to decide their loyalties and treaties for themselves. It's, like, the definition of "sovereign."

I suspect you would have been a big supporter of Chamberlain's appeasement approach to Nazi Germany's expansion into neighboring countries.