Who do you tip to win the US presidential election

[Kidlicious]

V-shaped recovery! 33.3% GDP growth! Best in US history!

[-Jrabbit]

FAKE NUMBERS.

[Ming]

Why would he make a difference in MN? Is he pulling a Hillary?

Maybe because he only has a 5% lead in current polls and would like to win the state... DUH!

[Dinner]

I have been paying attention to The Trafalgar Group as they were the only polling company to get 2016 correct. Plus they have also been trying to come up with ways to identify shy voters or so called secret Trump voters; people who will vote for Trump but who won’t admit to it if someone asks.

https://mobile.twitter.com/trafalgar_group

If their methodology remains as good as it was in 2016 then they are showing stuff none of the other polling companies are showing so I guess we will find out on Election Day. BYW they are showing Minnesota as being a toss up (no Republican win since 1972), Wisconsin as toss up (went Trump in 2016), Michigan slight Trump lead, Pennsylvania as a toss up (with a 0.8% lead for Trump which is margin of error territory).

Interesting side note: Biden’s campaign is doing an emergency trip to Minnesota which was not on their schedule. Maybe because they know MN is currently a toss up?

[Ming]

V-shaped recovery! 33.3% GDP growth! Best in US history!

WASHINGTON — The U.S. economy grew at a record 33.1% annual rate in the July-September quarter but has yet to fully rebound from its plunge in the first half of the year — and the recovery is slowing as coronavirus cases surge and government aid dries up.

The Commerce Department’s estimate Thursday of third-quarter growth showed that the nation has regained only about two-thirds of the output that was lost early this year when the eruption of the virus closed businesses, threw tens of millions out of work and caused the deepest recession since the Great Depression.

The economy is now weakening again and facing renewed threats. Confirmed viral cases are surging. Hiring has sagged. Federal stimulus has run out. With no further federal aid in sight this year, Goldman Sachs has slashed its growth forecast for the current fourth quarter to a 3% annual rate from 6%.

Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, noted that the record-high third quarter growth in the nation’s gross domestic product “tells us little, if anything, about momentum heading into” the current quarter.

[Kidlicious]

It isn't slowing. That's BS. It's growing at a slower rate. Ffs, use a source that understands economics.

[Ming]

The story quotes Goldman Sachs... what info are you looking at... YouTube

[Kidlicious]

Yes. 3% annual growth this quarter isn't bad.

[Dinner]

It certainly sounds like Biden is struggling in the rust belt to get white working class votes.

[Dinner]

The recovery would be a hell of a lot stronger if governors in blue states would end lock downs. Unfortunately, here in California our ****head governor (Nancy Pelosi’s nephew) literally said he will not allow anything to reopen until after the election. Can he make it any more obvious he is playing politics and not “listening to the experts” as he originally claimed?

[pchang]

You are engaging in a lot of hyperbole. CA is separated into tiers of risk. Even in the highest tier (purple) lots of business are still allowed to open. Much of the state is in the 2nd highest tier (red - which includes San Diego), so even more is open there. San Francisco had the most effective testing and tracing program, and their disease rates qualify them for the lowest tier (yellow) and so they can even do indoor dining.

[Ming]

Well the latest polls have
Biden up by 17% in Wisconsin
Up by 5% in Minnesota
Up by 7% in Penn
Up by 5% in Ohio
Up by 10% in Michigan

Doesn't look like he's struggling to me

[Ming]

The recovery would be a hell of a lot stronger if governors in blue states would end lock downs. Unfortunately, here in California our ****head governor (Nancy Pelosi’s nephew) literally said he will not allow anything to reopen until after the election. Can he make it any more obvious he is playing politics and not “listening to the experts” as he originally claimed?

The recovery would be a hell of a lot stronger if Trump would just do his job and not just give up on containing the virus.
The number of new cases is rising... Americans are dying, and he's more concerned about it being the subject the media talks about instead of trying to do something besides holding super spreader events across the country.

[Dinner]

Ming, I don’t think it is possible to contain this flu like virus. Just about all the countries which got praised for doing so well all have large outbreaks now. The exceptions being small islands like New Zealand. Also, you keep blaming the wrong people because even Democrats admitted state governors are the only ones who legally could order lock downs. The Dems even publicly said they wouldn’t follow any “illegal lock downs” from Trump at the beginning.

So your partisan unreasonableness is really showing on this issue.

[-Jrabbit]

Can you say South Korean?
Can you say Japan?

[Dinner]

Well the latest polls have
Biden up by 17% in Wisconsin
Up by 5% in Minnesota
Up by 7% in Penn
Up by 5% in Ohio
Up by 10% in Michigan

Doesn't look like he's struggling to me

Just remember you are quoting a source that was wrong in 2016 while Trafalgar was correct in 2016. Just saying. Also it makes absolutely zero sense for Biden to be doing an emergency event in MN (only 10 electoral votes) instead of PN (20 electoral votes) if he really believed the posted numbers. Lastly, Biden’s own campaign manager has said Biden’s poll numbers are inflated.

[-Jrabbit]

There could be reasons. Maybe a coattails trip for local Dems?
Dunno. I'd rather observe than guess.

[pchang]

In actuality, most regular polls were correct within their margin of error in 2016. They showed a Trump surge in the final week of the race and had Hillary only 3-4 points ahead nationally with an error of 2-3 points. This is what happened. State level polls were farther off, but had a higher level of uncertainty.

[Ming]

Just saying, the regular polls have been correct in the past as well and got 2016 wrong.
Anybody that thinks a sample base of "one" is proof of performance in the future will probably be disappointed. Just saying

[Egbert]

It certainly sounds like Biden is struggling in the rust belt to get white working class votes.

White working class voters appear to be the ones who have gained the least and lost the most over the past few decades. It is understandable that they will have reservations about "politics as usual" including reservations about Biden.

The white working class has borne the brunt of increased casualisation of the workforce, the rise of labour hire companies, the poor conditions of the gig economy, the decline of union benefits an decline in job security. Ar least for the poor coloured people they have had some benefits from civil rights and so forth.

The poor appear to have been badly served by the politicians and now want change. Maybe they have a point?

[Kidlicious]

Actually working class, no matter race, have very similar beliefs, but the Democrats get many blacks to vote Democrat by shaming.

[Ming]

Actually working class, no matter race, have very similar beliefs, but the Democrats get many blacks to vote Democrat by shaming.

They don't need to shame black voters, Trump is more than reason enough for blacks not to vote for Trump.

[Kidlicious]

Trump has more support from black voters than any other Republican in recent history.