Who do you tip to win the US presidential election

[Kidlicious]

Biden is on the defensive.

[Ming]

Yeah... up by 8 or more points... While Trump is continuing telling people to commit a felony by voting twice, and doing everything in his power to screw up the vote so he can claim victory by fraud
It looks like Trump is the one on the defensive.

[Uncle Sparky]

It is also a felony in the US to council to commit voter fraud. Add that to his long list.

[Kidlicious]

Biden is on the attack?!

[Kidlicious]

Trump is continuing telling people to commit a felony by voting twice.

Another lie. I'm sure Biden will repeat it over and over again, just like the Charlottesville lie.

[-Jrabbit]

Dude, he says this stuff ON CAMERA. Stop denying it.

[Kidlicious]

He said vote again if your vote wasn't counted. Stop lying.

[-Jrabbit]

Look at what you typed. How the hell does ANY voter know if their ballot is counted? HE SAID "VOTE AGAIN" - which is both illegal to say (for him) and illegal to do (for voters).
Kidiot.

[Dauphin]

Betting odds indicate Trump is favourite for punters again, by a whisker.

What I hadn't realised before is that UK betting markets had (kind of) predicted a Trump victory in 2016. More bets had been placed on Trump than on Clinton in the final few months (61% to 39%) - probably because the odds offered were longer for him than punters thought they should be. I'm unclear on what the implied win expectation was. This time around, similar pattern, at even odds, the proportion of bets has increased from 50 to 60% over the past couple of months, implying his chances are seen by punters as slightly better than even.

[Egbert]

I just saw an item stating that Fox News has confirmed an article by "The Atlantic" stating that Trump described war veterans as losers and pathetic.

I expect this will generate a lot of disgust for Trump from the whole spectrum of society.

This disgusts me more than anything else Trump has ever said. How can anybody say such a thing about the veterans who include the gallants wading ashore into machine gun fire at the Normandy landings?

Could this hand the election to Biden, on a silver plate?

[Elok]

This will make absolutely no difference whatsoever in the long run. People will blither for a couple of days, it will get added to the long lists of Trumpian perfidies his opponents pass around for rage-wanks, and in the absence of clear audio or video captures of the president saying something fantastically bad, it will make no difference. Nobody who has any illusions about the man's character now will have them dispelled.

[Egbert]

You two make good points. He tells so many lies that another lie makes no difference to anything. Yikes!

[-Jrabbit]

You may be right Elok, but that's not how I read it. Pretty sure it's going to have an effect within the military, and in military families.

[Dinner]

A good discussion about the differences between absentee ballots, mass mail in ballots, and how it is likely to effect the election.

https://youtu.be/Rj26tm8Uq5M

[Uncle Sparky]

[Egbert]

that speech leaves the listener with no idea what he is talking about making it quite impossible to argue.

[Uncle Sparky]

He's a mostly unimpeachable source.

[Dauphin]

He does it so that the right wing religious fanatics think he is speaking in tongues and divining the word of God.

[BeBMan]

[QUOTE]Trump Calls for Firing of Fox Reporter Who Quoted Atlantic Article on Veterans[/QUOTE]

[Dinner]

[QUOTE=BeBro;n9398099]

Trump Calls for Firing of Fox Reporter Who Quoted Atlantic Article on Veterans[/QUOTE]

I honestly have a very hard time believing that particular hit piece claim (the core claim not that Fox also mentioned it). We have five other people who were all there, including people who dislike and don’t get along with Trump (such as John Bolton), all saying it never happened. Mean while it reads like a very bad cosplay script written by someone with Trump Derangement Syndrome. Oh, and the original source making the claim just so happens to be owned by a Biden mega donor.

Yeah, if you don’t smell anything off on that then you don’t have a sense of smell.

[Dauphin]

No idea if he said these things, but he reverted to type and invented an alibi nonetheless. He claimed he called home to Melania to say how upset he was he couldn't go the to the ceremony. But Melania was with him in Paris.

And he definitely said he doesn't like POWs, he likes soldiers who don't get caught.

[-Jrabbit]

At the time, most everyone was calling BS on the cancellation in France, because the excuses were transparently stupid ("It was raining, helicopter couldn't fly" and "Secret Service refused to drive there").

[Jon Miller]

He has said enough negative things about veterans, that it amazes me he has any veteran support.

The Generic Ballot is still 5-8 points in Biden's favor. There is probably a 2-3 point EC advantage, so that probably means that Trump is winning by 2-5 points. A standard polling error is around 3 points.

There can be motion, but if we assume no motion that would put Biden's odds as better than 85%. I believe that the 70% that 538 presents is based on the idea that there is real uncertainty, which could significantly move things in Trump's favor.

JM

[Elok]

This is not about Trump (however much he likes to believe otherwise). It certainly isn't about Biden. This is about tribe. People who support Trump aren't actually supporting Trump, they're opposing progressives. That's what you're missing. He may very well have said offensive things about veterans. This doesn't matter, first because it can't be proven to his supporters' satisfaction (four anonymous sources' word means squat) and second because everyone with a lick of sense already knows Trump is a moral dumpster fire. We really don't like disparaging veterans, but we also really don't like sexual assault, and he got elected after blathering about how much he enjoyed that, and having it recorded.

[ricketyclik]

I think you're on the money here Elok.