Tweet
538 projects
house D+34
senate R+3
house D+34
senate R+3
-
“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man -
So seems like House met expectations but Senate was off 1 sigma towards R.
Of course the House is mostly made up of districts from big states while the Senate depended mostly on 8 states...
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
-
So the really bad news, based on Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota, I'd say all GOP members must accept the Republicans are Donald Trump's party. They should probably burn their memberships...
Good news is Trump's been neutered. Expect many subpoenas.There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.Comment
-
I was better off with my first guessComment
-
At least with the Senate. Which was the prediction off.
I admit that I am still confused by Florida. But I have been since 1999, so that wasn't unexpected.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
-
So, Back to political deadlock?I am not delusional! Now if you'll excuse me, i'm gonna go dance with the purple wombat who's playing show-tunes in my coffee cup!
Rules are like Egg's. They're fun when thrown out the window!
Difference is irrelevant when dosage is higher than recommended!Comment
-
Well Trump is President, that is the best we could hope for.
And oversight. That is very very important.
Trump has free reign of the Judicial appointments though. And is free to claim that there is no mandate against him. And it will be difficult for the Democrats to get a majority in the Senate in 2020.
JMJon Miller-
I AM.CANADIAN
GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.Comment
-
Estimates of voter turn out were 48% which is the highest turnout since 1914 but still kind of sad as it means more than half of those who could have voted didn't vote.Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.Comment
-
If that holds then I am off.Originally posted by pchang View PostTry http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.Comment
-
The real key will be state legistures. If Dems make big gains there then they set themselves up for the big redistricting in 2020 and 2022 where they can reverse Republican gerrymandering.Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post
If Dems under perform then they are going to need to make some changes and my first suggestion is to drop much of the identity politics shtick. The PC SJW act is pretty much universally hated and seen as douchebag nonsense yet Dem politicians treat it like their bread and butter.Last edited by Dinner; November 7, 2018, 05:23.Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.Comment
-
Now it says
house D+32
senate R+3“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of ManComment
-
Well, I seem to have been roundly wrong. On another forum I got the closest prediction in 2012 and 2014, with runner up in 2016 but I seem to be way off on 2018. For the record I predicted D +26 in the house and a wash in the Senate.
So the Dems over performed my prediction in the house and way under performed my prediction in the Senate. It will be interesting to see what happens with the governors and state legislatures.Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.Comment
-
Politico is saying right now it is D -2 in the Senate with the 3rd up in the air. The map was really bad for dems as in 2012 Obama was running for reelection and so they had huge turnout which meant the won in red districts dems didn't think they could win in before. In 2020 they will have folks elected in 2014 which was an R year midterm up for reelection in a presidential year which tends to favor Dems. That means the 2020 map is going to be very favorable to dems.
The big blue wave was not as big as expected, over all. It was still pretty big though not as big as 2012 when Obama helped get minorities (especially blacks) out to vote. It seems blacks have returned to their pattern of not bothering to turn out to vote without a black candidate at the top of the ticket. Youth votes do not seem to be as large as hoped so they remain useless ****s.
The blue wave was biggest in blue states but didn't seem to do nearly as well in red states.Last edited by Dinner; November 7, 2018, 05:51.Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.Comment
-
The new House majority is the worst in American history.I drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
-
And you're going to see a lot of changes at the DoJOriginally posted by Uncle Sparky View PostI drank beer. I like beer. I still like beer. ... Do you like beer Senator?
- Justice Brett KavanaughComment
Comment