Thread for obviously newsworthy stuff

[Kidlicious]

Pence says that the President of Honduras told him that Venezuela is financing the "caravan."

[ZEE]

Nope.

[Aeson]

Oh that reminds me of the post presidential election thread when you all predicted incorrectly how long Trump would remain president. Thanks.

It should remind you of the thread that will be made after Trump isn't president which predicts how long Trump was president for.

[ZEE]

Yup.

[Kidlicious]

Oh that reminds me of the post presidential election thread when you all predicted incorrectly how long Trump would remain president. Thanks.

[Aeson]

I eagerly await BKs new website that will make predictions after the elections are finished

[spambot]

Someone told me I only had a one in six chance of rolling doubles, and I did, they were so wrong!

[ZEE]

Jon Miller you are completely incorrect and on the verge of being insulting.

[Jon Miller]

BTW, I know that the odds from 538 are wrong. They estimate that R+5 is the equivalent of D+4. If we assume that NV + MO + FL + IN + AZ + MT are all 'tossup', meaning 50/50, and we assume that TX, and TN are all likely, meaning 80/20 splits, and ND is 95/5.

The average result is going to be R winning TX, TN, ND, MV, MO, FL, that is half the tossups. R+5 is about half as likely, or about 25 percent or one in four, not 2 percent that 538 is claiming.

So that means one of two things, one that RCP is lying when it says that all six are true tossups (I don't think they are), or 538 can't do math. (much more likely). D+4 is something well below 1 percent at this rate.

You can't mix and match. 538 has MO,NV as toss-ups, AZ, IN and FL as lean D and TN as lean R. They put ND in the likely R column and MT as likely D.

That means you can do your estimates (using 538 poll aggregate) as 1/1 MO,NV and 2/3 IN,FL,AZ and 1/3 TN. That gives a central value of 3 D/3 R (which is R+1). They also say that 6 D/ 0 R (D +2) is about the same probability is 0 D/ 6 R (R + 4). That is also what we see from 538 analysis.

By the time you get to R + 5/R + 6 or D + 3/D+4 you are dealing with Likely D/Likely R (like ND, MT, NE, TX, MS, WV, NJ, MN). Those are equal numbers... you could imagine that the distribution is then symmetric. Which it is basically, but R has a longer and higher tail.

JM

[ZEE]

That makes absolute and perfect sense to me.

[Ben Kenobi]

BTW, I know that the odds from 538 are wrong. They estimate that R+5 is the equivalent of D+4. If we assume that NV + MO + FL + IN + AZ + MT are all 'tossup', meaning 50/50, and we assume that TX, and TN are all likely, meaning 80/20 splits, and ND is 95/5.

The average result is going to be R winning TX, TN, ND, MV, MO, FL, that is half the tossups. R+5 is about half as likely, or about 25 percent or one in four, not 2 percent that 538 is claiming.

So that means one of two things, one that RCP is lying when it says that all six are true tossups (I don't think they are), or 538 can't do math. (much more likely). D+4 is something well below 1 percent at this rate.

[Ben Kenobi]

Just like that time in Civ2 the phalanx unit defeated the bomber... odds are just that.

If you say that 'Republicans are odds-off favorites to lose this election and use the percentages, after giving the exact same prediction, can we reliable conclude that Republicans are going to lose this election too? Or is it more likely that you're miscalculating the odds, because, you know, you just plain got it wrong?

[rah]

Kid will never get to find out if he's won the prize or not They are always outsmarted by the door.

Is the prize a criminal?

Aeson called it.

[Kidlicious]

Is the prize a criminal?

[Ming]