Brexit means Brexit

[Broken_Erika]

The easiest solution is to give up on Northern Ireland and reunite Ireland again. No border, problem solved.

Except only like 1/5th of the population of North Ireland supports Reunification. Although the last poll was before Brexit, and depending on how badly the conservatives screw up, re-unification might gain more support.

[Proteus_MST]

The easiest solution is to give up on Northern Ireland and reunite Ireland again. No border, problem solved.

I am sure a lot of irishpeople will love this solution
I am sure a lot of people in scotland would also love if scotland, as well, would secede from the UK
(that said ... I haven't heard about the scottish plans to take the Brexit as reason to do another secession referendum for quite some months ... have they been put on ice?)

[Broken_Erika]

Here's an idea, N.Ireland, Scotland and Wales secede, and unify with Ireland! Isle of Man can come too.

[Dinner]

Surely they can insist on having one regulatory regime for all of the UK, but - as I understand it - the automatic consequence would be a hard border between Ireland (still EU) and Northern Ireland (non EU after Brexit) - which the UK seems not to want, but which they might get because of some of their positions are simply incompatible.

That is up to the EU. If they continue to refuse to even talk about free trade or allow Ireland an exemption wrt the UK then I agree it is a stuck issue but the EU has been the one setting up roadblocks. One thing is for damn sure and that is trying to violate the territorial integrity of the UK is a complete nonstarter. The EU needs come back to reality and stop trying to unfairly punish the UK.

The EU could write an exemption for Ireland if they wanted to do so but they will not get a deal where part of the UK remains in the EU and part leaves. The EU is the inflexible one trying to create a hard border and if it doesn't want one then it better start saying yes instead of no to everything. Right now, it is looking like the EU refuses any deal so the EU will get stiffed and as a result the EU budget will have a huge hole in it. Enjoy paying much higher tax contributions to the EU and losing a big chunk of German exports.

[Proteus_MST]

That is up to the EU. If they continue to refuse to even talk about free trade or allow Ireland an exemption wrt the UK then I agree it is a stuck issue but the EU has been the one setting up roadblocks. One thing is for damn sure and that is trying to violate the territorial integrity of the UK is a complete nonstarter. The EU needs come back to reality and stop trying to unfairly punish the UK.

The EU could write an exemption for Ireland if they wanted to do so but they will not get a deal where part of the UK remains in the EU and part leaves. The EU is the inflexible one trying to create a hard border and if it doesn't want one then it better start saying yes instead of no to everything. Right now, it is looking like the EU refuses any deal so the EU will get stiffed and as a result the EU budget will have a huge hole in it. Enjoy paying much higher tax contributions to the EU and losing a big chunk of German exports.

Well, why would the EU want to do this?
If the EU gives an exemption (with regards to free trade) to northern ireland and northern ireland has no border controls to the rest of the UK (as they are part of the UK), then all of the EU<->GB goods would flow through ireland and any trade agreements between the EU and the rest of ther UK would be void (as they could easily be circumvented)
The UK basically would get a free trade agreement/free access to the EU market through its backdoor without having to provide any commitments for it.

So it can only be one of those 2:
1. Border controls between northern ireland and the UK (and northern ireland has a special status, not only with regards to the EU borders, but also with regards to any EU laws)
or
2. The EU borders are between northern ireland and the republic of ireland ... with no special status for northern ireland.

That's not about revenge ... if you want to profit from the advantages of the EU (like the free trade), you will have to fulfill the commitments of the EU (which include both, a membership fee, as well as adhering to certain EU wide laws).
The UK doesn't want to fulfill its commitments to the EU anymore ... so it, of course, also will be closed out from the advantages the EU provides.

Sure, the Brexiters wet dream was, that they could retain the advantages of the EU, without having to fulfill its commitments anymore but that has been just a wet dream, a fantasy, that had no base in reality

[Dauphin]

I don't see what the big deal is with the need for a "hard" border. The issue isn't unencumbered movement of people - that exists despite the UK having passport controls from the rest of the EU. So it's movement of goods, no?. You can 'easily' set up a system that directs all goods vehicles through certain access points, and all non-commercial traffic is allowed to flow freely. Monitor non-commercial traffic points with CCTV if necessary, and follow up on any suspicious activity, and act on intelligence lead policing and co-ordination between tax authorities.

[Dauphin]

If the EU gives an exemption (with regards to free trade) to northern ireland and northern ireland has no border controls to the rest of the UK (as they are part of the UK), then all of the EU<->GB goods would flow through ireland and any trade agreements between the EU and the rest of ther UK would be void (as they could easily be circumvented)

If UK company A buys goods from Irish Company B, the paper trail will show taxes and tariffs due - just as if Irish Company B sold services to UK Company A with no border security to cross. So the issue of shipping all goods through Ireland would only be about smuggling goods across the border to avoid tariffs, right?

(I know you are responding to an exemption, I guess I am questioning the premise, not your response to it)

The UK basically would get a free trade agreement/free access to the EU market through its backdoor without having to provide any commitments for it.

Free access would only exist if you are smuggling or otherwise not declaring cross-border trade. As noted, how do you monitor the sale of services?

So it can only be one of those 2:
1. Border controls between northern ireland and the UK (and northern ireland has a special status, not only with regards to the EU borders, but also with regards to any EU laws)
or
2. The EU borders are between northern ireland and the republic of ireland ... with no special status for northern ireland.

Option 3: Leave an open border for face value non-commercial traffic and monitor for abuses such as smuggling.

[Dinner]

Well, why would the EU want to do this?
If the EU gives an exemption (with regards to free trade) to northern ireland and northern ireland has no border controls to the rest of the UK (as they are part of the UK), then all of the EU<->GB goods would flow through ireland and any trade agreements between the EU and the rest of ther UK would be void (as they could easily be circumvented)
The UK basically would get a free trade agreement/free access to the EU market through its backdoor without having to provide any commitments for it.

So it can only be one of those 2:
1. Border controls between northern ireland and the UK (and northern ireland has a special status, not only with regards to the EU borders, but also with regards to any EU laws)
or
2. The EU borders are between northern ireland and the republic of ireland ... with no special status for northern ireland.

That's not about revenge ... if you want to profit from the advantages of the EU (like the free trade), you will have to fulfill the commitments of the EU (which include both, a membership fee, as well as adhering to certain EU wide laws).
The UK doesn't want to fulfill its commitments to the EU anymore ... so it, of course, also will be closed out from the advantages the EU provides.

Sure, the Brexiters wet dream was, that they could retain the advantages of the EU, without having to fulfill its commitments anymore but that has been just a wet dream, a fantasy, that had no base in reality

Just sign free trade with the UK and the problem is solved. Of course, the EU really doesn't give a **** about northern Ireland and simply wants to damage the UK. FACT. They do not care about the border issue any further than it can be used as a weapon against the UK. If they actually did care then they would sign free trade or exempt Ireland from EU rules.

That they are not doing this means they just want to play games and the only appropriate response is to tell the lying EU to **** off.

[Proteus_MST]

Just sign free trade with the UK and the problem is solved.....

Why would they want to do it?
After all the UK also doesn't want to fulfill any commitments to the EU.

Just stay in the EU and you will keep access to the EU market -> no long negotiations anymore and no problems with northern ireland and scotland.
After all, it seems like lots of "Yes"-Voters in the Brexit-Referendum meanwhile regret their decision (and would vote with "No" if the votum would be repeated),
especially as the lies of Brexit-Campaigners meanwhile have become apparent, so a cancellation of the Brexit would most likely be in the best interest of the majority of the UK citizens

[Dinner]

Why would they want to do it?
After all the UK also doesn't want to fulfill any commitments to the EU.

Just stay in the EU and you will keep access to the EU market -> no long negotiations anymore and no problems with northern ireland and scotland.
After all, it seems like lots of "Yes"-Voters in the Brexit-Referendum meanwhile regret their decision (and would vote with "No" if the votum would be repeated),
especially as the lies of Brexit-Campaigners meanwhile have become apparent, so a cancellation of the Brexit would most likely be in the best interest of the majority of the UK citizens

What commitments, you liar? The UK tried to stay in the EU and the arrogant and incompetent EU elites redused to negotiate anything thus almost single handedly delivering Brexit. The EU has always had great difficulties dealing with reality even when it is right before them. Before Brexit they could have strategically dealt with the clear and present problems the UK government had brought up yet like the arrogant and incompetent pieces of dog shot they are they decided to pretend not to see any problems.

Demanding the UK compromise its territorial integrity is a complete none starter. An obvious sign the EU is not interested in a genuine deal. It means the arrogant **** stains in the EU are deliberately trying to prevent a deal. Fine. Give the EU nothing and then when it yet again becomes protectionist let every other country in the world from the US to China to Japan to Australia retaliated against the EU. Yes, this will ve bad for the world economy but if the EU is too stupid to acmvoid it then that is their fault. Put restrictions on Euro clearing and see what happens. Europe eill be poorer with less access to credit.

30% of German made cars are sold in the UK. Aftwr the tariffs let us see if that is true. Food? Same thing. You act like free trade with North America, China, India, Japan, South America, or Africa won't be on offer. The EU will be the one with the drastically reduced vudget demanding remainers pay more yet get less. Let us see how well that plays out with national voters.

[Dinner]

The EU's pull fads the longer this goes on. Either the EU recognizes its own self interests or it gets supplanted. That is the ultimate market truth.

[Proteus_MST]

What commitments, you liar? The UK tried to stay in the EU and the arrogant and incompetent EU elites redused to negotiate anything thus almost single handedly delivering Brexit. The EU has always had great difficulties dealing with reality even when it is right before them. Before Brexit they could have strategically dealt with the clear and present problems the UK government had brought up yet like the arrogant and incompetent pieces of dog shot they are they decided to pretend not to see any problems.

Negotiations ...
you know, if you are in a club, you adhere to the clubs rules, you don't try to demand more and more special rules that only profit yourself.
The UK already had so many special rules for the UKs own profit that at one time the EU just said "enough is enough" and didn't give in to the UKs demand for even more special rules.

Demanding the UK compromise its territorial integrity is a complete none starter. An obvious sign the EU is not interested in a genuine deal. It means the arrogant **** stains in the EU are deliberately trying to prevent a deal. Fine. Give the EU nothing and then when it yet again becomes protectionist let every other country in the world from the US to China to Japan to Australia retaliated against the EU. Yes, this will ve bad for the world economy but if the EU is too stupid to acmvoid it then that is their fault. Put restrictions on Euro clearing and see what happens. Europe eill be poorer with less access to credit.

The EU doesn't demand that the UK compromises its teritorial integrity ... in fact the EU is more than willing, to see the borders between northern ireland and the republic of ireland as the EUs outer borders (together with the bordert checks).
It is the UK who wants to have a special status attribuited to northern ireland and no border checks between northern ireland and the republic of ireland (or more exactly, it is northern ireland within the UK, that has this desire).
The UK (or more exactly, the Brexit-Campaigners and the UK citizens that voted pro Brexit) has gotten itself into this mess (by demanding Brexit). Any proposals that attribute a special status to northern irelanmd (including those that have northern ireland adhere to EUs rules for it, or have border controls between northern ireland and the rest of the UK) already symbolize some big accomodation of the EU towrds the UK. If you don't accept those proposals it is not the EUs problem.

30% of German made cars are sold in the UK. Aftwr the tariffs let us see if that is true. Food? Same thing. You act like free trade with North America, China, India, Japan, South America, or Africa won't be on offer. The EU will be the one with the drastically reduced vudget demanding remainers pay more yet get less. Let us see how well that plays out with national voters.

I don't claim that the Brexit doesn't present some problems to certain branches of german industry (and surely also some industries in other countries).
Likewise the missing membership fees from the UK will mean that germany and france may have to pay more membership fees for the EU (on the other hand it is unclear how many ... the UK, with its abysmal payment behavior, always only paid a fraction of its financial obligations to the EU ... just enough to not get thrown straight out of the EU).

For other branches there may be big chances for germany.
Lots of financial institutes, for example, will relocate from London (former financial capital of the EU) to Frankfurt,most probably turning Frankfurt into the EUs new financial capital.
Guess this will pose lots of problems for London, considering how much Londons economy depends on its banking sector

[pchang]

As of 2007, the UK was a net contributor to the EU of about 3.5 Billion Euros. However, they got back about 2/3 of that due to the special UK rebate they were able to negotiate. So, the UK was about a 1.2 Billion Euro contributor. All in all, Brexit will have a very minor cost to the current EU net contributors (of which Germany is by far the largest) and the shift of financial centers from the UK to Frankfurt will be quite a net plus for the German economy.

I expect house prices in London to take a major dip, but probably not enough to convince me to buy a summer place there.

[Dauphin]

I think you are quoting the post-rebate figure as the pre-rebate figure. Between 2010 and 2016 the post rebate figure has ranged between £7.3bn and £10.8bn per year

[pchang]

Perhaps - I could not find more recent numbers. To make the math easier, let's go with 7.4 B pounds => about 10 B USD. The government budgets for Germany and France are about 1.5 T USD and 1.2 T USD, so making up 10 B USD amounts to less than 1% of the budget for either one of them.