Brexit means Brexit

[My Wife Hates CIV]

first time i reviewed this thread.... and last... MWHC has posted

[BeBMan]

(...) and business which is currently constrained by EU regulations.

Fun fact: when the UK became part of the EU forerunner (the EC) in 1973 it was one of the poorer countries in Europe, below average for Western Europe. Now today as it is leaving it is one of the richest. However the UK will do in the future the argument frequently popping up that the UK needs to freed from the "shackles of the EU" to get its economy going does not hold water.

[kentonio]

Fun fact: when the UK became part of the EU forerunner (the EC) in 1973 it was one of the poorer countries in Europe, below average for Western Europe.

The expression used back then was that the UK was the 'sick man of Europe'. We basically begged to be allowed into the EC, and then as soon as our economy revived started acting like stroppy teenagers at every turn who would refuse to play unless they got special treatment. I'm surprised the French and Germans actually tolerated us this long.

[Ecthy]

IIRC the British Navy uses our missiles in it's submarines. They have a range of 6000+ miles. Hitting Madrid would be simple.

Some interesting fantasy you have there.

How about this: every time the Brits discover they weren't thinking clearly on something, they threaten to nuke somebody else.

[Kidlicious]

The expression used back then was that the UK was the 'sick man of Europe'. We basically begged to be allowed into the EC, and then as soon as our economy revived started acting like stroppy teenagers at every turn who would refuse to play unless they got special treatment. I'm surprised the French and Germans actually tolerated us this long.

That's funny because they seem quite pissed about losing their little colony.

[Dinner]

Fun fact: when the UK became part of the EU forerunner (the EC) in 1973 it was one of the poorer countries in Europe, below average for Western Europe. Now today as it is leaving it is one of the richest. However the UK will do in the future the argument frequently popping up that the UK needs to freed from the "shackles of the EU" to get its economy going does not hold water.

Yep, the cost of WW2, disruptions to traditional empire trade routes due to decolonization, and really bad policies by labor governments in the 60's and 70's really hit industry hard. Fortunately a, better regulatory and policy environment plus access to the common market along with heavy investment in human capital really helped things improve. The only thing the UK wants and needs is free trade. The rest of the EU state structure is just tits on a boar.

Make no mistake there will be free trade eventually with the rest of Europe, they just have to wait out the EU's tempertantrums, and in the meantime they can secure a hell of a lot more free trade deals without backwards protectionists on the continent blocking everything. The EU is designed as a customs union and is highly protectionist in nature. A free trading country will be better off without those dead weights.

I expect a modest decrease in growth in the short term with significantly increase growth going into the medium to long term especially if the UK is aggressive with market liberalization and pushing free trade deals outside of Europe. As for Europe, the 2.5% nominal tariff will suck but is a worst case scenario but it will get resolved sooner or later and there will be off sets in the meantime.

[Proteus_MST]

...

Make no mistake there will be free trade eventually with the rest of Europe, they just have to wait out the EU's tempertantrums, and in the meantime they can secure a hell of a lot more free trade deals without backwards protectionists on the continent blocking everything. The EU is designed as a customs union and is highly protectionist in nature. A free trading country will be better off without those dead weights.

...

IIt will also cost them a lot.
London is a banking capital ... and many banking HQs will leave while a lot of other banks will decrease their offices in London, due to the fact that London will lose ifs (more) uncomplicated access to the european capital transfer market that it had during it membership in the EU (and also due to the bigger difficulties to have non british employees work in their London offices).

There are already lots of cities in the EU who are more than eager to become the new banking capital

[Dinner]

That is doubtful. All that will happen, worst case scenario, is that banks set up new subsidiaries in places like (most likely) Dublin or (less likely) Frankfurt which take orders while the orders continue to get defacto executed still in London.. The hard truth is no matter what protectionist schemes the EU comes up with most of the EU really is a **** place for banks to do international business. Short of true economic reform that is unlikely to change.

[Dinner]

That is doubtful. All that will happen, worst case scenario, is that banks set up new subsidiaries in places like (most likely) Dublin or (less likely) Frankfurt which take orders while the orders continue to get defacto executed still in London.. The hard truth is no matter what protectionist schemes the EU comes up with most of the EU really is a **** place for banks to do international business. Short of true economic reform that is unlikely to change.

[Dinner]

That is doubtful. All that will happen, worst case scenario, is that banks set up new subsidiaries in places like (most likely) Dublin or (less likely) Frankfurt which take orders while the orders continue to get defacto executed still in London.. The hard truth is no matter what protectionist schemes the EU comes up with most of the EU really is a **** place for banks to do international business. Short of true economic reform that is unlikely to change.

[Dinner]

Holy triple posts, Batman. Cellphones suck.

[Kidlicious]

Yep, the cost of WW2, disruptions to traditional empire trade routes due to decolonization, and really bad policies by labor governments in the 60's and 70's really hit industry hard. Fortunately a, better regulatory and policy environment plus access to the common market along with heavy investment in human capital really helped things improve. The only thing the UK wants and needs is free trade. The rest of the EU state structure is just tits on a boar.

Make no mistake there will be free trade eventually with the rest of Europe, they just have to wait out the EU's tempertantrums, and in the meantime they can secure a hell of a lot more free trade deals without backwards protectionists on the continent blocking everything. The EU is designed as a customs union and is highly protectionist in nature. A free trading country will be better off without those dead weights.

I expect a modest decrease in growth in the short term with significantly increase growth going into the medium to long term especially if the UK is aggressive with market liberalization and pushing free trade deals outside of Europe. As for Europe, the 2.5% nominal tariff will suck but is a worst case scenario but it will get resolved sooner or later and there will be off sets in the meantime.

They would do better with a good stimulus program and tax cuts for business investment and consumer spending as well as possible import substitution.

[-Jrabbit]

first time i reviewed this thread.... and last... MWHC has posted

I held out a little longer.

[kentonio]

That is doubtful. All that will happen, worst case scenario, is that banks set up new subsidiaries in places like (most likely) Dublin or (less likely) Frankfurt which take orders while the orders continue to get defacto executed still in London.. The hard truth is no matter what protectionist schemes the EU comes up with most of the EU really is a **** place for banks to do international business. Short of true economic reform that is unlikely to change.

No, that isn't the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is that the banks will do exactly what the banks say they will do, and move thousands of jobs to the EU.

[BlackCat]

No, that isn't the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is that the banks will do exactly what the banks say they will do, and move thousands of jobs to the EU.

No, that is the expected scenario. I'm pretty sure that the EU won't accept that vital euro/banking operations will take place outside EU. The estimates that I have seen is that some 230.000 banking workers will move away from London - probably to somewhere in germany.

As usual Oerdin is wrong