results thread [us elections]

[Bereta_Eder]

Bebro, go eat a cake my child

[BeBMan]

Bebro, go eat a cake my child

Athenian elections 500 BC - rigged.

[Bereta_Eder]

No, it would need lots of people... And my brother would have to be one of them
He's done more political polling than everybody on this site combined (well, not to tough)
He's been doing it since probably before you were born.

I doubt that one person can guarantee the validity or not of a poll seeing as there are many parameters that are involved.

I don't doubt though that Rah is not lying

[Aeson]

Those that are for the mainstream media, yes (you don't have that much pluralism in that domain btw - noone does although there are shades)

To try and NOT get Trump elected.

It doesn't work that way. Giving candidate A a small phantom lead in polls signals marginal A voters to stay home, B voters to turn out, and obstructionist voters to vote B party down-ticket. If it was intentional it would have been a preference towards B and their party.

So the claim liberal media did it to help Hillary win doesn't make any sense.

[Bereta_Eder]

You lost me there

[Ming]

But when you are in a position to see all the many parameters that are involved, you are in the perfect position to judge the validity of the poll.
And Rah is in that position.

[Bereta_Eder]

That's exactly what I'm saying.
That it's virtually impossible to be in that position when conducting a large scale poll

[Aeson]

Also it doesn't jive with what polls were wrong. Fox News and other conservative organization's polls got it wrong as well.

[Aeson]

You lost me there

Yet you know more about polling than rah

[rah]

That's exactly what I'm saying.
That it's virtually impossible to be in that position when conducting a large scale poll

When you have some actual experience in the field, come back and educate us.

The only thing they could rig out of my control was the actual survey piece.
I did review it and I'm quite experienced on how specific questions can be biased
I would have noticed.

The survey went out to our entire panel so while the panel is slightly biased to the right (which we weight for)
It was out of our control since we didn't select a subset.

One of my responsibilities is overall data integrity so I had access to everything.

Due to quality responsibilities, I ran parallel analysis for checking.

No, I think I would have noticed.
If they wanted to rig it, I would have been the one doing it.

[kentonio]

If they wanted to rig it, I would have been the one doing it.

You rigged the poll?!? You monster!!

[Ben Kenobi]

What are your thoughts on the accuracy of the polling, rah? I'm leaning towards random statistical variation rather than pollster error.

[onodera]

CNN's now saying that Trump's likely to win the popular vote as well.

[Bereta_Eder]

Again, it's not about rigging per se.
As said the scientific (statistical whatever) method can still be applied but in such a way or under a norm that end results are skewed towards the desired effect.

But most of the time it's just payed off

[Bereta_Eder]

My proposition is that people haven't suddendly turned into (more) liers. The statistical models didn't just "stop working" after 2008.
The system that is crumbling under its own paradoxalities is merely trying to grasp at straws