results thread [us elections]

[Bereta_Eder]

A very lucrative arrangement indeed

[rah]

Fortunately we're a HUGE company so it only represents a small percentage of profits. (since elections don't happen every day)

[Sava]

just another side hustle from our corrupt institutions

[rah]

Hey at least I made the right decision last night.
My wife and I saw the initial returns at 7:00 and decided that we refused to sit at home watching our blood pressure rise, so we went out and saw Dr. Strange.
My favorite comic book a half century ago when I was a young lad.
My wife doesn't usually enjoy these types of films but due to the alternative she agreed to go.
It's visually a stunning movie. They included all the important elements for the original comics. Great casting and I'd highly recommend it.

Of course the new awful ghostbusters would have been better than watching the returns last night.

[Sava]

Hey at least I made the right decision last night.
My wife and I saw the initial returns at 7:00 and decided that we refused to sit at home watching our blood pressure rise, so we went out and saw Dr. Strange.
My favorite comic book a half century ago when I was a young lad.
My wife doesn't usually enjoy these types of films but due to the alternative she agreed to go.
It's visually a stunning movie. They included all the important elements for the original comics. Great casting and I'd highly recommend it.

Of course the new awful ghostbusters would have been better than watching the returns last night.

Nice job getting away like that.

My baby hasn't gotten out of bed yet. We're supposed to Costco today, but she said she might hurt someone. She's in a "*****, what the **** did you say" mood.






Honestly, it was difficult finding someone who could muster rage like I do.

We really need to do a Chicago Poly meet.

[Uncle Sparky]

I also saw Dr. Strange last night - 3d Imax version. This is definitely one of the movies you should spend the extra bucks to see on the biggest screen in 3d.

I did turn on the horror show at home, though...

[Aeson]

Doctor Strange was good!

Trump's eye-bags, the blue/purple is showing through the bronzer at times ... just saying ...

[Ben Kenobi]

Hey, the company I work for makes some big bucks on the polls, so you can bet we'll be trying to figure out what went wrong.

Wasn't the consensus H+2? Hillary will win by about half a point to a point. That's well within your MOE.

[Aeson]

It was H +3 to +4

[Ben Kenobi]

Still MOE. Could very well have nothing wrong with the poll itself, only with random distribution of the poll not reflecting the electorate as a whole. PA was very close and WI not that far away.

[KrazyHorse]

The problems with polls will likely come down to two things: flawed likely voter methodologies and "shy trump" voters.

[Ben Kenobi]

Possibly. Still too early to tell what exactly (if anything) went wrong with the polling.

[rah]

We're starting to see that many more that said they'd vote for Hillary simply didn't vote than those that said they'd vote trump didn't vote.

Our models did show it would be closer if there was a low turnout. Popular vote wise it was amazingly close. So it wasn't as out of wack as it looked.

Trump shy was another factor, but it's harder to nail that one down. Since a lot of what we did was our panel, we can go back to them. Now that he's won, they may not be as shy and claim they voted for him. We might get something out of that. A lot of other polls don't use panels so we may have an advantage on figuring it out.

[Bereta_Eder]

People haven't decided to become better liers after 2008.

It's just that the system in place pays off thoise companies to come up with accomodating results.

This can be done in ways that respect the scientific method while giving accomodating results.

There's also self - censorship which is a gagraine of its own.

This has been proven again and again in Greece, in the UK (hopefully it won't be proven in France) and of course in the US.


The only way to get a certain accurate, unfiltered and un-indoctrinated result is a public institution that respects its role. And there are plenty.

Apart from that, people haven't become better liers, companies have.

There are also two types of polls.


Ones that are for public consumption and ones ordered by the political parties themselves. The latter are very accurate.

[rah]

You're overthinking it.
I know for a fact that there were no expectations on us reporting what we were predicting.
The client is best served by being right so that is their only desire.
And consider we don't just say who we think will win, we provided models. Including one on how Trump could win.