Trump leads by only 6 points in Texas

[Giancarlo]

Outsider Question: Will the Republican party try to focus away from Trump and put their resources behind individual candidates to save some seats or is this a go-down-with-the-ship situation? How would a backstabbed by GOP- Legend sit with his supporters?

Or is it still to early to call?

I think they are already trying to save some sinking Congressmen and abandoning Trump. At least the Koch brothers did that already.

[onodera]

We don't need to march. We don't need to hold any kum ba ya circles having speeches about dreams.

We just got to be patient.

And grow old yourselves.

[onodera]

Btw, do you think there will be a major realignment any time soon? Like, loony GOPsters splitting the party and a centrist candidate uniting the sane remains with rightish Democrats? Or vice versa, socialist democrats splitting the Dems first?

[Giancarlo]

Btw, do you think there will be a major realignment any time soon? Like, loony GOPsters splitting the party and a centrist candidate uniting the sane remains with rightish Democrats? Or vice versa, socialist democrats splitting the Dems first?

I don't think the dems will split at all. I think Republicans won't split either. Chances are they will just continue moving to crazy town. The libertarian party might have some gain.

[Elok]

Well, assuming Trump loses--which is more probable at this point than a few weeks back, but by no means a given--I would expect either someone more competent and focused to take up his mantle the next cycle, or else for the angry core of his followers to transform into a genuine, bona fide American fascist movement, with paramilitaries swarming all over the place lynching liberals and blowing up bodegas. Depends on how humiliated and angry they feel after losing, really.

The GOP is the more damaged of the two brands by far; the Democrats could easily be stabilized with the cooperation of Hollywood, the media, and various big-money types. Hillary is basically a Republican for WHOOOO BOMB THE RAGHEADS purposes, which should buy her some help from what used to be across the aisle. There's no money in isolationism or protectionism.

[Sava]

And grow old yourselves.

I've got a ways to go still... I hope.

[Giancarlo]

Well, assuming Trump loses--which is more probable at this point than a few weeks back, but by no means a given--I would expect either someone more competent and focused to take up his mantle the next cycle, or else for the angry core of his followers to transform into a genuine, bona fide American fascist movement, with paramilitaries swarming all over the place lynching liberals and blowing up bodegas. Depends on how humiliated and angry they feel after losing, really.

The GOP is the more damaged of the two brands by far; the Democrats could easily be stabilized with the cooperation of Hollywood, the media, and various big-money types. Hillary is basically a Republican for WHOOOO BOMB THE RAGHEADS purposes, which should buy her some help from what used to be across the aisle. There's no money in isolationism or protectionism.

We can hope the first does not happen with violence. We just about had enough. The people need to stand up against Trump and the GOP. Trump doesn't represent a majority of this country and only the angry white male portion. I do fear what you said could happen, when (I am not using "IF") they lose.

Hillary is already getting backing from big names and big money (think Warren Buffett who strongly challenged Trump on his tax returns).

[Ben Kenobi]

to transform into a genuine, bona fide American fascist movement

LOL It will be a sad irony when you realize that all the Conservatives were right in that fascism is a liberal movement.

[Ben Kenobi]

Btw, do you think there will be a major realignment any time soon? Like, loony GOPsters splitting the party and a centrist candidate uniting the sane remains with rightish Democrats? Or vice versa, socialist democrats splitting the Dems first?

Given that trumpsters are actively shopping around opposition to Cruz's senate seat, this divide isn't going away anytime soon. Trumpsters believe they are the core of the party and seem willing to attempt to instigate purges of republicans.

They won't succeed for the simple reason that Trump's already lost this election. Trumpsters are going to face the choice of sticking with a party that jettisons them toute de suite or going third party. The problem with the 'third party' nonsense, is that there's just not enough of them.

I'm hoping they come to their senses in December, after Trump loses. If not... will be very interesting times that's for sure.

[Dinner]

Polls have tightened up again and Democrats are fools if they do not keep campaigning flat out. Meanwhile Hillary is taking a break and enjoying a vacation and so is Obama. They both should be out campaigning and driving the message home.

[Giancarlo]

Polls have tightened up again and Democrats are fools if they do not keep campaigning flat out. Meanwhile Hillary is taking a break and enjoying a vacation and so is Obama. They both should be out campaigning and driving the message home.

Polls have not tightened up again. And what polls? National ones? Depends. The ones that gave her the lead have her right upfront by the same margin. 7% or so. The double digit ones haven't been done since. Rasmussen is full of crap as we have seen several times.

State polls are key and she leads by double digits in the key states. Typical oerdin/dinner... Bam.

[Giancarlo]

Oh and what vacation? Bam #2.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Look at recent state polls and national polling. Hillary has remained steady. Some of the major national polling needs to be done again though. State polling all looks solid.

No tightening there. Another bam by Dinner. Colorado, Virigina and Pennsylvania are almost out of lean democrat status now. Bad for Trump! Multiple polls have shown double digit leads for Hillary there. BTW, another poll today shows Georgia as a swing state.

Also pay attention to something. Rasmussen and Reuters are two outliers. They never tightened either. They were about the same. Others yesterday gave 6-9% leads for Hillary.

Maybe they should hire Dinner. He seems to know everything! Not.

[Elok]

Polls have tightened up again and Democrats are fools if they do not keep campaigning flat out. Meanwhile Hillary is taking a break and enjoying a vacation and so is Obama. They both should be out campaigning and driving the message home.

All in all, Clinton has enjoyed an average lead of what looks like three or four points, averaged out across the last year. The problem is that the graph of support over time looks like a pair of offset sine waves; they keep converging in the center for brief periods before Hillary struggles up to a lead again. We just crested another wave and started heading down again. There's no consistent period at work here. If election day coincides with a trough, Trump could conceivably win. It's not terribly likely, but it's not zero. Especially if (as I strongly suspect) there are more wikileaks yet to come.

[Giancarlo]

All in all, Clinton has enjoyed an average lead of what looks like three or four points, averaged out across the last year. The problem is that the graph of support over time looks like a pair of offset sine waves; they keep converging in the center for brief periods before Hillary struggles up to a lead again. We just crested another wave and started heading down again. There's no consistent period at work here. If election day coincides with a trough, Trump could conceivably win. It's not terribly likely, but it's not zero. Especially if (as I strongly suspect) there are more wikileaks yet to come.

Not really. Considering she has dramatically improved her state polling in several key leaning/swing States, I would say its pretty close to zero.

Her average has been around 5-6%.

[rah]

You're both saying the same thing really. Not very likely but not impossible.