Why are the betting markets...

[Elok]

For crying out loud . . .

(TLDR: DNC helped Clinton deliberately circumvent Federal fundraising rules by holding a fundraiser "for local Democratic committees" and then funneling almost all of the cash directly to Clinton's campaign. Like the damned SuperPACs just weren't skeezy enough!)

[Thoth]

Poly needs a popcorn smiley.

[Thoth]

My wife prefers a scenario wherein the winner (whichever it is) promptly dies, and his/her empty-suit VP turns out to be a marginally competent leader given the chance. I'm not too confident in that prospect, but then all I know of the respective veeps is:

-Kaine is one of those Kerry-type "pro-life" candidates who personally think abortion is murder or murder-ish but insist that we should do nothing to impede it, ie either a moral coward, a ninny, or an outright shyster.
-Pence, or whatever his name is, is that guy who tried the Indiana RFRA and then retreated with his tail between his legs at the first sign of trouble. So unpalatable from basically everywhere on the political spectrum.

#GiantMeteor2016

[Jon Miller]

For crying out loud . . .

(TLDR: DNC helped Clinton deliberately circumvent Federal fundraising rules by holding a fundraiser "for local Democratic committees" and then funneling almost all of the cash directly to Clinton's campaign. Like the damned SuperPACs just weren't skeezy enough!)

I heard about that long ago.

JM

[Giancarlo]

I think Joe would have demolished Trump.

I think it likely that Kasich would defeat Hillary (or Bernie).

JM

I think the real reason Joe didn't run is that he saw what has happened to Obama.

As I said the Presidency is a terrible job. I wouldn't want it. It doesn't pay enough for all the stress. A two term Presidency is eight years, but Obama has come out looking 20 years older.

[Guynemer]

I think this election will turn on Trump's tax returns.

He just refused to release them (again citing an audit). This will likely be his Waterloo.

You really think the average "undecided" voter cares about that?

[Giancarlo]

You really think the average "undecided" voter cares about that?

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/15/new-evidence-donald-trump-didn-t-pay-taxes.html

They might say "well we pay taxes, but this guy isn't?"

That's how I feel about him. I think most at the end will see the light and see how much of a hypocrite he is. I don't think the average person is falling for his bull****.

Anyways, would any of you want the job of President? For me, hell no.

[Elok]

I heard about that long ago.

JM

Like I said, I'm not really in the loop, or wasn't until these arguments forced me to become at least minimally informed.

[Elok]

You really think the average "undecided" voter cares about that?

"Well, he approves of extrajudicial killings of women and children, hates basically every minority, doesn't much like women except for penis purposes, is vulgar and obnoxious, knows nothing of any pertinent issue, has the self-control of a five-year-old, displays all the honesty of Foghorn Leghorn but with less gravitas . . . and I'm fine with all that. But he better not cheat on his taxes!"

[Jon Miller]

You never know what catches people's attention.

Taxes + accusation that he has strong ties to Putin. Remember, many of these people are older than I am.

JM

[Elok]

If he's actually dumb enough to have colluded with a foreign power to influence the election via espionage, well, that's sorta-kinda treason, or at least ballpark. By comparison, dodging taxes like every other millionaire in the country is pathetically paltry. I'd be astonished if at least a couple items in the Clinton Foundation's annual budget weren't euphemisms for hookers and blow.

EDIT: Think of "taxes + 'strong ties to Putin'" as "didn't return stuff he borrowed + slept with my wife." Why is that first part even there?

[Jon Miller]

On the other hand, strong ties to Putin isn't treason.

But, combined with the other things, it might make a lot of the older generation not give him a vote.

JM

[Elok]

I was taking "strong ties to Putin" to mean "seriously dodgy ****." What are you using it to mean? That he and Putin have expressed admiration for one another? Or have they done business in the past? Either way, it's not much compared to fairly solid evidence that Hillary's crowd outright rigged the nomination. That just feeds into the long, long story of Clinton duplicity and recklessness. I don't see anything short of treason making much of a dent by comparison. Trump has a history of crooked business dealings, but he's been the underdog so far in this election, and if anything the game has appeared rigged against him.

[Giancarlo]

Rigged the nomination?

I don't think so.

One candidate got more states and more votes. Often winning states by a huge margin. The votes were conducted by local officials and often republican officials. The DNC has nothing to do with vote counting, ballot locations, etc.

That's nonsensical talk.

No evidence AT ALL.

[Giancarlo]

And unlike Trump, Hillary has actually released all of her tax returns. Elok... you have nothing.

https://www.hillaryclinton.com/p/files/returns/WJC_HRC_2014_Form_1040.pdf

BTW this is just one example and its entirely public.