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  • #1

    Why are the betting markets...

    pricing in such a different probability of a trump election than FiveThirtyEight's model?

    Is it that the model's wrong? Maybe the Europeans who constitute the bulk of the market just don't think Americans are crazy enough to actually do it?
    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
    Stadtluft Macht Frei
    Killing it is the new killing it
    Ultima Ratio Regum
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  • #2
    Betfair has a ~32% chance of a trump victory vs 538's 46% chance.
    12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
    Stadtluft Macht Frei
    Killing it is the new killing it
    Ultima Ratio Regum

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    • #3
      His "polls-plus" forecast has it at 40%, so closer, but still off a bit.

      Jesus **** I sure as **** hope we aren't crazy enough to do it.
      "My nation is the world, and my religion is to do good." --Thomas Paine
      "The subject of onanism is inexhaustable." --Sigmund Freud

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      • #4
        Nate even said that he doesn't believe his polls-plus for this election, and the poll only doesn't include the convention effects and so is likely in Trump's favor (since it isn't corrected and is heavily influenced by weekend polls). So I think there is reason to believe that it is somewhere between 40 and 48.

        Still not 32, but 32 is where my gut would be. But guts have so far been wrong on Trump.

        I am suspicious that for 2020 Nate is going to have a more sophisticated model for polls-plus.

        JM

        (edit Just checked and polls only does not include convention effects.)
        (edit Misread.)
        Last edited by Jon Miller; July 26, 2016, 00:00.
        Jon Miller-
        I AM.CANADIAN
        GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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        • #5
          When Nate originally said that he didn't stand by polls-plus for this election, the polls-plus gave Trump a better chance than the polls. So much has changed in the last month, despite nothing seeming good for Trump.

          Is it just that Hillary got really damaged by the emails? Or is it something else? Like maybe the economy starting to tank and people observing it before the official statistics do?

          JM
          Jon Miller-
          I AM.CANADIAN
          GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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          • #6
            I have a feeling Trump will fall into the toilet after a few weeks. Hillary has a wide coalition of voters, many severely understated in polls. If 12-15% of voters are indeed Latino (compared to 8% in 2012), Trump is toast.

            It is too early to trust any form of polling. I remember Romney having a 5-7% lead over Obama.

            The economy isn't tanking. Its actually doing quite well.

            Trump is dangerous and I hope people aren't so stupid to support him. He is a nasty bully and bigot. Maybe my expectations of the American people are too high.
            For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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            • #7
              The emails are only about half baked into the latest polls. President Mother****ing Trump. You'd better get used to how that sounds, because there's about a 50/50 shot he rides that crazy train into the white house....
              12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
              Stadtluft Macht Frei
              Killing it is the new killing it
              Ultima Ratio Regum

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by KrazyHorse View Post
                The emails are only about half baked into the latest polls. President Mother****ing Trump. You'd better get used to how that sounds, because there's about a 50/50 shot he rides that crazy train into the white house....
                I think its more 75/25 in favor of Hillary regardless of what the rollercoaster polling, but perhaps I put too much faith into demographics. Angry white males don't decide elections anymore I think.

                Oh and the Democrats have a far more developed get out to vote system and ground team. Trump has done little in that regard.
                For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                • #9
                  6 months ago I thought trump was a flash in the pan, discrediting the polling. I have learned my lesson with this and with brexit: the sane people don't always take over on election day.
                  12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                  Stadtluft Macht Frei
                  Killing it is the new killing it
                  Ultima Ratio Regum

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by KrazyHorse View Post
                    6 months ago I thought trump was a flash in the pan, discrediting the polling. I have learned my lesson with this and with brexit: the sane people don't always take over on election day.
                    This isn't the UK. This nation is far more diverse than the UK and Trump has pissed off too many people. Trump will lose. And perhaps big.
                    For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by KrazyHorse View Post
                      6 months ago I thought trump was a flash in the pan, discrediting the polling. I have learned my lesson with this and with brexit: the sane people don't always take over on election day.
                      I think a certain (largish) percentage of Trump votes are going to come from the same source as Brexit votes: giddy, perverse curiosity by otherwise largely sane people. We can't do it. It's unthinkable, grotesque. Putting a deranged, narcissistic dipwad in charge of our nukes? Who would do that? But . . . there's that button, right in front of us in the voting booth. Nobody's going to know. And Hillary's such a boring candidate, and nobody much likes her either. What will happen if we push the button? Puuuuuuush the buuuuttooooon . . .
                      1011 1100
                      Pyrebound--a free online serial fantasy novel

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                      • #12
                        Even at the moment.

                        I am not clear why do you think that Trump is more likely to push the button than Hillary. If anything Trump is more likely to seek to defuse the issues with Russia than Hillary, and remove the only threat to some sort of WWIII.

                        Hillary will play by the established rule book which currently runs a little hot.
                        Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
                        GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

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                        • #13
                          Hillary is the kind of person who would nuke humanity and ride out the aftermath in some underground luxury bunker.

                          Trump wouldn't want to kill his audience. The idea wouldn't ever occur to him.
                          To us, it is the BEAST.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by OneFootInTheGrave View Post
                            Even at the moment.

                            I am not clear why do you think that Trump is more likely to push the button than Hillary. If anything Trump is more likely to seek to defuse the issues with Russia than Hillary, and remove the only threat to some sort of WWIII.

                            Hillary will play by the established rule book which currently runs a little hot.
                            Trump would launch wars throughout the world and his foreign policy would ruin this nation.

                            Trump is a verified reckless idiot and the last one that should be anywhere near the White House.

                            BTW, I think the choice of Kaine shows that Hillary wants a negotiator on her team.
                            For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                            • #15
                              Trump may be many things, but he is presenting himself as an isolationist and not a war hawk. Between the two Hillary is the war hawk.

                              Trump - Iraq was wrong, get NATO/allies pay for their own defence, Middle East involvement created chaos, open to dialouge with Russia
                              Hillary - pro Iraq, orchestrated Libya, pro-Syria war, strongly anti-Russian line

                              Betwen the two Trump is the one with realtively peaceful, and certainly reasonable look at the last decade an a half of US foreign policy


                              Trump's view is if Gadhafi and Hussein were still in power and if Assad were stronger, the Middle East would be more stable.


                              There are many reasons why Trump should not be thought of a reasonable, but foreign policy is not one of them, it is the reason why I will be personally happy if he wins.
                              Socrates: "Good is That at which all things aim, If one knows what the good is, one will always do what is good." Brian: "Romanes eunt domus"
                              GW 2013: "and juistin bieber is gay with me and we have 10 kids we live in u.s.a in the white house with obama"

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