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  • Fivethirtyeight.com analysis of just about all the polls. It has been trending for the last week or so.
    “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

    ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man

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    • Her poll numbers aren't really shrinking though according to RCP.

      I just don't see a way for Dumpster to make any ground. He is stuck below a certain threshold. Even in states he should be leading in.
      For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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      • FiveThirtyEight generally takes an inclusive attitude towards polls. Our forecast models include polls from pollsters who use traditional methods, i.e., live in…


        BTW, Fivethirtyeight ran this article. Hillary's lead may actually be bigger than previously thought.

        Live polling, which is reputed to be more accurate, has her projected to win 354 electoral votes in the end. Nonlive is more narrow, but still has her at around 310.

        Live polling is usually more accurate. So I can say I am pretty confident she will win with at least 350+ electoral votes. 400 may be a bit too optimistic, but who knows? Trump is a **** candidate.
        Last edited by Giancarlo; August 31, 2016, 15:26.
        For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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        • The USA is not sending Mexico its best people. Today they sent a serial bankrupt who is a bigoted racist and an embarrassment.
          There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

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          • Pena Nieto will pay with the end of his of corrupt inept Presidency for allowing that disgusting clown to set foot in Mexico.

            Donald Trump is a national embarrassment. Bigoted racist and RAPIST too.
            For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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            • Now we don't know for certain if Trump is a rapist until they post his swim times.
              There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

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              • This man is a walking embarrassment and he still thinks he is running in the primaries. He went back to the same xenophobia that most Americans and many undecided voters do not like. He had a possible opening to soften his tone, even after that disastrous visit to Mexico where he insulted the entire country. He blew it once again.



                Oh and 61% of Americans oppose his idea of building a wall and nearly 76% have a favorable view of undocumented immigrants. Doubling down on his hate will destroy whatever little bounce he had in some polling (not in most). Even nearly a third of Republicans don't support what Donald is claiming. Appealing to his base it appears! Somebody remind him he isn't running in the primaries anymore.

                So much for the pivot and softening of his stance. Lmao. Blew it completely.
                Last edited by Giancarlo; September 1, 2016, 09:47.
                For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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