An alternative suggestion to help the UK get a better deal.

[Elok]

We need a "Happy Putin" Smilie.

The day after the vote the world lost 2.1 trillion dollars or about 3% of it's worth.

It's kind of weird (to me) how we accept some freakish caprices of human nature while getting angry about others. For example, the notion that wealth can be created ex nihilo, then just as quickly destroyed, by the passing enthusiasms of our moneyed classes. We're all on board with that'n, it's the core of modern economics and finance or something. A bunch of people voting to dissolve a political association, however, is scary--hence it frightens the gerbils who run our money system into destroying more value.

[ZEE]

Elok is a nerd.

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

I will try to find time to make some comments. I kind of got discouraged after we lost all the threads in the forum.

Yeah; that's understandable. -But keep grinding, and all that; the prize for winning the game is considerable.

Yeah... that sucked. Just as we were gaining some momentum. But, there is still plenty of time. We shall overcome groundhog day

-But not all the momentum was lost -a key point; posts were lost, but local enthusiasm doesn't have to go with it, and not all did- a serviceable 6 with a credible amount of content -thanks to Uno's generousity in large part- was up again right away. I said at the time that all Oerdin's hard work wasn't for nothing - he proved, PROVED that one single regular member can make a big difference, and his efforts are very much not forgotten, even if lurkers can't see them anymore. This site has all the advantages except the active membership actually believing it can happen; well, it totally can, but needs a few people, at least, persevering. Don't let those habits of looking in and trying to find something to say go - it doesn't take a lot to create a little activity that draws more activity.
...W/o naming any names, the management has a lot of power to lead - and all the reason in the world to want to; 6 will draw Our Kind Of People - though hopefully a better class of them.

I do a little I can spare the time to do to help, witness some vids posted lately in 6 and taking the time to talk up building efforts over and over - but it really has to come from in-house, people who live here, not primarily somewhere else, to really work. I don't mind throwing a few news bones, but I'm not going to rupture myself trying to start/maintain commentary, which needs to be mostly local and uniquely 'Poly.

-Luckily, 'uniquely Poly' is a house specialty, for all that you can't conservatroll and call each other '***** in an on-topic area... There's a rumor that you guys are mostly actual gamers - it certainly looked that way before...

You can do it.

[Ben Kenobi]

It's kind of weird (to me) how we accept some freakish caprices of human nature while getting angry about others. For example, the notion that wealth can be created ex nihilo, then just as quickly destroyed, by the passing enthusiasms of our moneyed classes. We're all on board with that'n, it's the core of modern economics and finance or something. A bunch of people voting to dissolve a political association, however, is scary--hence it frightens the gerbils who run our money system into destroying more value.

Value is a curious thing, in a panic, to keep a cool head. What has been destroyed? Nothing. There is no reasonable reason to suddenly think things worth less than they were the day before.

[Aeson]

There is a very real change in this case ... the uncertainty of what the rules will be almost surely leads to an economic slowdown in the UK and to a lesser extent the EU. To counter that the central banks should loosen money, leading to devaluation of the currency. That's what is being priced in, and it doesn't appear to be a panic. It could be wrong... but this isn't unreasonable so far, with some targets for GBP:USD in 1.20s ... a panic could still happen of course.

[Ben Kenobi]

There is a very real change in this case ... the uncertainty of what the rules will be almost surely leads to an economic slowdown in the UK and to a lesser extent the EU. To counter that the central banks should loosen money, leading to devaluation of the currency. That's what is being priced in, and it doesn't appear to be a panic. It could be wrong... but this isn't unreasonable so far, with some targets for GBP:USD in 1.20s ... a panic could still happen of course.

What has changed? Not much. Same plants, same organizations.

[Aeson]

The rules of doing business in the UK and EU are changing ... to what no one is certain yet. Uncertainty is damaging.

If you were planning on spending 100 million to build a factory in the UK to supply widgets to the EU ... now you have to reconsider. Will the UK have free access to the EU market, or will there be tariffs? Will you have EU regulations on your factory and widgets, or will they be replaced with something new that costs more/less? You might have been planning on a 10% profit margin on your widgets ... and then for 90% of your production you could be facing a 15% tariff added on. That would destroy your business model. So where the choice earlier may have been clear, now it's murky. Many people will take a "wait and see" approach, others will jump ship completely. This impact pretty much guarantees an economic slowdown. The only question is how much of a slowdown will result.

The natural response to an economic slowdown is for central banks to loosen the money supply. The natural effect of loosened money supply is currency devaluation.

The markets are giving their prediction, pricing in that currency devaluation. You can say it's "not real" and "hasn't happened yet" ... but markets don't work that way. The price is the price. There is no absolute value, only what people are willing to pay. The prediction can be, and often is at least partially self-fulfilling

The change in currency is a change with causal effects in and of itself. It is all one giant feedback loop. Even if the drop in the GBP:USD was larger than the fundamentals will show it should have been in hindsight, it happened. That has very real effects on the economy. For a personal example, I already posted that last year ~1/4 of my income was paid in GBP. With the exchange rate down about 10% lower, that means about 2.5% of my expected income from the current business model just vanished overnight. Why is my income paid in GBP? Because a UK ad network was the most effective one in certain cases on my websites (including Apolyton). Now it is essentially 10% less effective ... meaning I (and many others) may be switching to other ad networks which are now more effective.

Another as of yet unsure aspect of this is that if there is an economic slowdown in the UK, ad spend will go down, and UK centric networks are likely to suffer even more relatively to non-UK-centric networks. There is also a possibility that cheaper GBP will be an upward pressure on ad spend. But I have no way to predict if/how much effect these factors will have so can't plan based on it.

The end result ... it's likely there will be less business happening in the UK.

[Ben Kenobi]

Uncertainty is damaging.

Uncertainty in and of itself is opportunity, insofar as there is nothing to suggest that the actual boots on the ground have changed. The plants are not being destroyed, nor is the workforce changing in the slightest bit.

If you were planning on spending 100 million to build a factory in the UK to supply widgets to the EU ... now you have to reconsider.

Why would I have to reconsider? England's regime has gone on their own before. If my widget firm relies on EU handouts then why am I planning on building it in Britain in the first place?

Will the UK have free access to the EU market, or will there be tariffs? Will you have EU regulations on your factory and widgets, or will they be replaced with something new that costs more/less? You might have been planning on a 10% profit margin on your widgets ... and then for 90% of your production you could be facing a 15% tariff added on. That would destroy your business model. So where the choice earlier may have been clear, now it's murky. Many people will take a "wait and see" approach, others will jump ship completely. This impact pretty much guarantees an economic slowdown. The only question is how much of a slowdown will result.

I've taken a, "take advantage of a temporary market panic" to turn a quick buck. It'll pay off. I've never yet lost money. I hope folks like you push it down even further so that I can make even more money.

The natural response to an economic slowdown is for central banks to loosen the money supply. The natural effect of loosened money supply is currency devaluation.

The Euro has been weakening for a long, long time. I don't know if you've been following but the EU has declined from 1.6 to the USD in 2007 all the way down to 1.05 to the dollar in 2015.

It will soon crash through the USD to below parity.

The markets are giving their prediction, pricing in that currency devaluation. You can say it's "not real" and "hasn't happened yet" ... but markets don't work that way. The price is the price. There is no absolute value, only what people are willing to pay. The prediction can be, and often is at least partially self-fulfilling

People can panic against the Market all they like. It still doesn't change the actual value of the pound. The Iron law that it is the time to buy when all the lemmings are rushing off the cliff remains.

The change in currency is a change with causal effects in and of itself. It is all one giant feedback loop. Even if the drop in the GBP:USD was larger than the fundamentals will show it should have been in hindsight, it happened. That has very real effects on the economy. For a personal example, I already posted that last year ~1/4 of my income was paid in GBP. With the exchange rate down about 10% lower, that means about 2.5% of my expected income from the current business model just vanished overnight. Why is my income paid in GBP? Because a UK ad network was the most effective one in certain cases on my websites (including Apolyton). Now it is essentially 10% less effective ... meaning I (and many others) may be switching to other ad networks which are now more effective.

I've had income from the USD, and income from CDN, so managing the currency flows from one to the other has been a big part of managing my small business. I've never lost money because of it, because I keep converting. I've just recently (last year) converted everything back to CDN, netting quite a substantial profit in CDN.

I can use those profits to buy other currency which is why I'm buying up the Pounds.

Another as of yet unsure aspect of this is that if there is an economic slowdown in the UK, ad spend will go down, and UK centric networks are likely to suffer even more relatively to non-UK-centric networks. There is also a possibility that cheaper GBP will be an upward pressure on ad spend. But I have no way to predict if/how much effect these factors will have so can't plan based on it.

The effect on the Franc has been a massive, long term and sustained increase in value over the long, slow slide of the Euro. That to me suggests an opportunity. There's nothing to be gained now from selling the Pound. Quite a bit to gain from buying them.

The end result ... it's likely there will be less business happening in the UK.

Temporarily, I can see that. The longer and harder it gets pushed down, the better it is for folks like me. Keep selling, please.

[Buster Crabbe's Uncle]

Hey Oerdin; good job in 6 last night. -Notice that a few comments from you drew a few more from Lori and the Mildly Annoyed Monk.

(Folks, when Oerdin is being cool and community-spirited, isn't it a good thing to encourage that by backing his play? Answer: YES! Do it. Post in 6.)

P.S. Obey obey obey obey obey obey obey obey obey obey obey obey obey

[Aeson]

Uncertainty in and of itself is opportunity, insofar as there is nothing to suggest that the actual boots on the ground have changed.

All you're saying is ... "uncertainty in and of itself is opportunity, insofar as there is no uncertainty". It's inane babble ... like the rest of your post.

Uncertainty is damaging to economies. There are always opportunities, but the less you know about a situation the less likely you are to be able to spot them.

Why would I have to reconsider?

You don't have to, but you should reevaluate given the changes. The regulatory and trade environment is going to change. To what is the question ...

England's regime has gone on their own before. If my widget firm relies on EU handouts then why am I planning on building it in Britain in the first place?

You clearly don't understand the issue. The UK will have to renegotiate trade agreements. It has nothing to do with handouts.

People can panic against the Market all they like.

You don't understand what markets are.

Temporarily, I can see that.

No, you obviously don't see that there is a slowdown coming, since you claim nothing has changed and claim the likely result of such isn't going to happen.

Keep selling, please.

If you had the slightest clue about the meaning of what I had said you'd know the end result of this is that I am probably selling less GBP going forward than normal.

[Sprayber]

Admit it -- you're just upset that the Brits stole the Greeks' glory.

The marbles man, it's because of the damn marbles.

Would I be correct in assuming that the EU is eager to get the UK out as soon as possible in order to prevent other countries from holding similar referendums? Or is that just idle speculations?

[The Mad Monk]

Right, right -- stole the Greeks' glory again.

[Bereta_Eder]

The first yes but this only reflects on the thief
the second no

[Bereta_Eder]

Would I be correct in assuming that the EU is eager to get the UK out as soon as possible in order to prevent other countries from holding similar referendums? Or is that just idle speculations?

The EU thinks that the UK wants all the perks but none of the obligations.
and entitlement is a very bad thing. This has been consistent with the idea it had of the UK for decades.

there will be no referendum at present.

France will have to decide between a far right and a right party and it will decide right.

however the brexit makes the exit less taboo.

You won't be treated like the doomsbringer because someone else did it first!

So it makes an exit less accusatory because they will all say: it's britain's fault!

(not that we would exit because to do so would mean trust 100% bolseviks (as a certain lithuanian used to say) and greeks don't want that.

they accept their shortcomings and actually are more accusatory of themselves than even their worse accusators (but without the dinner racism for example)


having said that, it's a matter of pain threshold if the pain is deemed too much, then it's bolseviks and out (or something else and out)
no sane voice is saying get out

the left is dancing around but is always in
the right is always in

the only ones who are out are the far left and right and they are a minority


BUT, it makes exit easier

[Bereta_Eder]

there is a huge battle between the left and the right but it always stops one step before committing national suicide (as the majority sees it)

this has been going on since the end of ww2