13 years on what are your thoughts on the U.S. presidential election of 2000?

[Ben Kenobi]

Going back to 1988 - an 8 million victory for George Bush Sr. Texas at .7, Florida at 1, Ohio at .48, California at .35, GA at .37, VA at .45, New Jersey at .43, NC at .35.

And that puts us over. So now we have:

CA, NY, IL, MA
TX, FL, OH, GA, VA, NJ, NC and MO. 11 states in 7 elections.

Does anyone want to see Reagan in 1984? 17 million popular vote victory?

1.5 CA, .7 IL, .5 NY, .8 OH, 1.5 TX, 1.3 FL, .7 NJ, .5 VA, .5 NC, .5 MO And, that will do it.

So that adds exactly one state. Missouri.

1980 - 8.5 million people. CA, 1.5, TX, .7, FL, .6, NJ .4, OH, .45, IN, .4, .33 PA.

Adds, PA and IN.

CA, NY, IL, MA
TX, FL, OH, GA, VA, NJ, NC, MO, IN, PA.

76, mistah peanut farmah.

.5 GA, .4 MA. And that will do it. GA was a full third of Mistah Peanut Farmah's mahgin nationwide.

[giblets]

All this math is very exciting but it does nothing to answer the question of whether a switch to a popular vote system would benefit liberals or conservatives. (Hint: in 2012 the electoral college put the Democrats at an advantage.)

[Ben Kenobi]

Tricky Dick. Won by 18 million

NY 1.2, CA, 1.1, TX, 1.1, FL, 1.1, OH, .9, IL, .9, PA, .9, IN .7, NJ, .7, GA .6, NC .6, VA 5.5.

And that'll do it. It's like Tricky Dick knows how to win an election. He hit every state on the 'winning the US presidential election for dummies' list. He missed only MA and MO.

In his close election, it's CA + FL and that's enough.

I think this list isn't going to change much.

Obama's 2012 campaign is unique. It's the highest percentage margin for a single state ever.

Obama's national margin was 5 million.

He had a margin of 1.4 million in LA county alone. He had a margin of 1 million in Cook County.

So there you go. Obama only needed to campaign in 2 counties to win the election. Cook and LA county.

That's it.

Do you really want voters in just 2 counties in America deciding the presidency?

[Ben Kenobi]

All this math is very exciting but it does nothing to answer the question of whether a switch to a popular vote system would benefit liberals or conservatives.

Liberals want it because it makes rural areas irrelevant in an election.

2012 is a very simple election LA county and Cook county racked up 2.5 million votes for Obama. In a popular vote election - Obama wouldn't have needed to campaign outside of those two counties.

It's possible now to win an election in America with just those two counties. All the rest are irrelevant.

As for the EC favoring Obama, Obama's strategy was really not that hard to figure out.

FL was irrelevant. His overall plan focussed solely on OH and VA. Cuyahoga County has a 250k margin for Obama > than his total margin in the state. VA it was Fairfax.

That's pretty much it. Obama only really cared about Cuyahoga and Fairfax. To win the EC that's all he needed to do.

It's been a very long time (if ever), that the plains states mattered. I don't believe there's been a single election where a plains state mattered. The only states that do are that list of 12 or so states.

I don't see how a popular vote system would make more people's votes count. It would do the exact opposite. Like I said, LA county and Cook are suffiicient to bring home sufficient votes to win a national election.

[giblets]

Tricky Dick. Won by 18 million

NY 1.2, CA, 1.1, TX, 1.1, FL, 1.1, OH, .9, IL, .9, PA, .9, IN .7, NJ, .7, GA .6, NC .6, VA 5.5.

And that'll do it. It's like Tricky Dick knows how to win an election. He hit every state on the 'winning the US presidential election for dummies' list. He missed only MA and MO.

In his close election, it's CA + FL and that's enough.

I think this list isn't going to change much.

Obama's 2012 campaign is unique. It's the highest percentage margin for a single state ever.

Obama's national margin was 5 million.

He had a margin of 1.4 million in LA county alone. He had a margin of 1 million in Cook County.

So there you go. Obama only needed to campaign in 2 counties to win the election. Cook and LA county.

That's it.

Do you really want voters in just 2 counties in America deciding the presidency?

They wouldn't "decide the presidency". If Romney had won the popular vote, Obama would have still won Cook County and LA County. There is no correlation between who wins those two counties and who wins the presidency.

[giblets]

Liberals want it because it makes rural areas irrelevant in an election.

2012 is a very simple election LA county and Cook county racked up 2.5 million votes for Obama. In a popular vote election - Obama wouldn't have needed to campaign outside of those two counties.

It's possible now to win an election in America with just those two counties. All the rest are irrelevant.

In the counterfactual universe where Obama only campaigned in LA County and Cook County his performance elsewhere would have been far worse. He would have lost the popular vote to Romney, plain and simple.

[Ben Kenobi]

They wouldn't "decide the presidency". If Romney had won the popular vote, Obama would have still won Cook County and LA County. There is no correlation between who wins those two counties and who wins the presidency.

In a popular vote election - they do and would. For the simple reason that you can rack up a 2.5 million gap.

Do you know how hard it is to make up 2.5 million votes in the rest of the country? Close elections are within 500k.

[giblets]

In a popular vote election - they do and would. For the simple reason that you can rack up a 2.5 million gap.

Do you know how hard it is to make up 2.5 million votes in the rest of the country? Close elections are within 500k.

Not that hard, apparently:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2004

[-Jrabbit]

In the counterfactual universe where Obama only campaigned in LA County and Cook County his performance elsewhere would have been far worse. He would have lost the popular vote to Romney, plain and simple.

That can't be true! It would ruin Ben's narrative!!

[Tupac Shakur]

Most of you arguing against Ben don't actually seem to know anything about how political campaigns work. Campaigns are already centered on major metropolitan areas, since that's where the major broadcast media outlets are centered. Moving to a popular vote would make it even more vital to focus resources on a handful of urban areas.

[Guynemer]

...which would be fine, since that is where the majority of Americans live.

[Tupac Shakur]

You don't. I'm looking out for you, man.

[Guynemer]

Did you miss the post where I said I don't want those *******s sleazing their way through my area every election?

[Hauldren Collider]

I could have done with less of the campaigning around here as well. The wonderful irony is that the only reason Virginia is a battleground at all is because of all the ****ing worthless government workers that have moved here as the federal bureaucracy grows uncontrollably.

Cutting government would cripple much of the economy around here, but most of the people it would affect are useless human beings anyway, so I'm all for it.

[Guynemer]

How very touching.