Who is this "Martin Luther King" and why does he have his day off today?

[Dinner]

In wealth California is way up there ans most of the counties which really aren't doing that well tend to be rural and extremely red. Hell, most of the cities which have declared bankruptcy in the last decade are also the reddest. FACT.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Orange County. BK due to abusive unauthorized trades by the County Treasurer.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Wouldn't this reinforce my point about resource extraction being a significant factor in economic prosperity?

No. (a) you have to have the resources. (b) you have to have them at significant cost advantages to market. (c) They only affect "prosperity" if you have a small population. California has oil - it's also lower grade, more costly to extract due to depth and viscosity (EOR needed in the largest fields), and its economic contribution is pretty minor in a state of 30+ million people. In a state of half a million people, it would be a different story. And in the larger state, proportionately less people directly benefit, so you have a double whammy - little real benefit coupled with little benefit in statistical gamesmanship.

Also, I'm not cherry picking anything. Top 10, Alaska, Wyoming and North Dakota are all up there. VA gives you 4/10. Hell if you count NH, that's 5/10 right there.

3 of the 4 least populous states in the US, a RINO state that benefits significantly from the Massachusetts economy like the rest of New England, and the now bluing home of the Beltway Bandits? Take the federal money out of VA, and you're right back to southern bass-akwardness. NH is a geographically small, low population state which benefits disproportionately from the economic activity of its neighbors.

Picking the "top 10" out of 50 and ignoring those dynamics is cherry picking by definition. Let's look at the full spectrum.

If deep blue were correlated with economic prosperity, why don't we see California?

I see California out my window. Lots of money moving around here. And not because only three people live here, like Alaska.

[MrFun]

Why is California's government state budget so horrid then, in contrast to its wealth/economy?

And last I checked, California's unemployment rate is higher than a great number of other states, no?

[MichaeltheGreat]

Lots of reasons. California is more of a boom/bust state, but Prop. 13 handcuffs the state's options with surplus revenues during boom times. California also had a ton of new road, school and other construction (not all of which is directly in the state budget) for years to meet influx and migration patterns. Public employee pensions at the state level are not that big of a deal, since that money was funded over the course of employment into CalPERS, which doesn't draw off the state budget.

There's a lot of inefficiency in the budget process and state government, but it's also a big, expensive state to run, with a lot of infrastructure and state level services spread into very low population areas.

The unemployment rate is higher overall, but that is skewed primarily by five central ag-economy based counties - four in the San Joaquin valley, plus Imperial County. If you take those five counties out, then California falls into line. The housing bubble also distorts unemployment - there's a surplus of housing in most areas, so no reason to have a big boom in housing construction. Same thing happened in metro Phoenix and Las Vegas in that respect.

[Ben Kenobi]

Picking the "top 10" out of 50 and ignoring those dynamics is cherry picking by definition. Let's look at the full spectrum.

How is top 10 arbitrary?

Prop. 13 handcuffs the state's options with surplus revenues during boom times.

Ahh. I was waiting for this. So the solution to California's troubles is to remove the cap on property taxes. No, that's not the problem at all. The solution to CA's problems is to cut back on entitlements.

I'm sure what will eventually happen is that CA will revert to territorial status after the Feds bail them out.

[Dinner]

Why is California's government state budget so horrid then, in contrast to its wealth/economy?

And last I checked, California's unemployment rate is higher than a great number of other states, no?

1) The 2/3rds rule, put in place by Republicans in the 1980's, caused political grid lock and notice that with in a year of it being gone suddenly the deficit was reduced to all most nothing in 2012 and is expected to be in surplus in 2013.

2) California, like Japan in the 1990's and the Dutch after Tulip Mania, is suffering from a big bubble which popped; specifically a real estate asset bubble. Like Japan it is going to have a long hang over due to the massive debt accumulation during the bubble and the resulting bankruptcies and debt pay downs post bubble popping. You'll notice the states which saw the biggest price run ups during the bubble (Florida, California, Nevada, and a few others) are now seeing the worst post bubble bust. Loans secured based upon the value of real estate suddenly don't look so good once real estate values plunge. It will probably take 20-30 years for all that mal-investment to work its way through the bankruptcy courts but California law is actually speeding things up as it allows owners to walk away from their now upside down mortgages simply by returning the keys to the bank but that still leaves banks with big capital loses and that's the big problem we're currently having.

[Dinner]

How is top 10 arbitrary?



Ahh. I was waiting for this. So the solution to California's troubles is to remove the cap on property taxes. No, that's not the problem at all. The solution to CA's problems is to cut back on entitlements.

I'm sure what will eventually happen is that CA will revert to territorial status after the Feds bail them out.

Serious Question: Why are you so stupid?

The state has cut back on "entitlements" (which other than welfare and education the state doesn't spend much on) not that California ever had a large welfare rate as only about 2% of the population has ever had welfare. To compare most of the south and the Southwest, those red states you love to pretend are so good, are really **** holes of poverity with sky high welfare rates due to lack of economic opportunity.

Welfare rates by state:


Children in poverty and which states children live in the worst conditions:


And, of course, which states net pay taxes (pay more taxes than they get back from the government) and which states are welfare queens who live off of the hard earned tax money of others. You'll notice virtually all red states are worthless pits which suck up the tax dollars of blue states like California, New York, and Illinois.

[Ben Kenobi]

1) The 2/3rds rule, put in place by Republicans in the 1980's, caused political grid lock and notice that with in a year of it being gone suddenly the deficit was reduced to all most nothing in 2012 and is expected to be in surplus in 2013.

Eh, 'projected surplus'.

Sure, I'm sure that the budget in California is balanced and they won't end up short.

2) California, like Japan in the 1990's and the Dutch after Tulip Mania, is suffering from a big bubble which popped; specifically a real estate asset bubble. Like Japan it is going to have a long hang over due to the massive debt accumulation during the bubble and the resulting bankruptcies and debt pay downs post bubble popping. You'll notice the states which saw the biggest price run ups during the bubble (Florida, California, Nevada, and a few others) are now seeing the worst post bubble bust. Loans secured based upon the value of real estate suddenly don't look so good once real estate values plunge. It will probably take 20-30 years for all that mal-investment to work its way through the bankruptcy courts but California law is actually speeding things up as it allows owners to walk away from their now upside down mortgages simply by returning the keys to the bank but that still leaves banks with big capital loses and that's the big problem we're currently having.

So, California's in trouble because housing is and always was overpriced and underfinanced? How are those beautiful views MtG keeps bragging about workin' out fer ya? Not very well.

[Ben Kenobi]

The state has cut back on "entitlements" (which other than welfare and education the state doesn't spend much on) not that California ever had a large welfare rate as only about 2% of the population has ever had welfare. To compare most of the south and the Southwest, those red states you love to pretend are so good, are really **** holes of poverity with sky high welfare rates due to lack of economic opportunity.

California pays welfare recipients the equivalent of 11.79 an hour - the 7th highest in the nation.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/jul/28/welfare-capital-of-the-us/

34 percent of the US's total welfare recipients live in California.

That overall figure amounts to $179 annually for every man, woman and child in California. That trails New York ($256) and Hawaii ($233). Two large states among the lowest in per capita spending are Texas ($32) and Florida ($44). The national average is $99.

California not only has more per capita recipients than Texas, they also pay them 6x as more.

[Dinner]

It's not even remotely true. Oh, and the UT has been nationally called out for being a partisan piece of garbage with no pretense of journalism even since Doug Manchester bought it a few year's back. We're talking dozens of papers including the NY Times doing articles point out how he deliberately lies and doesn't follow even basic journalism standards which is why the paper is in a death spiral. Well, even more than they were before.

Thanks, but I'll stick to actual facts rather than the MUT's made up nonsense.

[Ben Kenobi]

Thanks, but I'll stick to actual facts rather than the MUT's made up nonsense.

http://www.utsandiego.com/documents/2012/jul/28/welfare-how-california-stacks/

They also say that 4 percent of California is on welfare (contrary to what you stated).

I guess we're done here.

[MichaeltheGreat]

How is top 10 arbitrary?

The same way top 5, top 9, or top 11 would be. You're looking at a subset. Why not pick, bottom 10? Oh, because that would hurt. As in "squeal like a pig" hurt.

Ahh. I was waiting for this. So the solution to California's troubles is to remove the cap on property taxes.

Nope, prop 13 does a bit more than that. When the state is in boom mode and could run a significant budget surplus, the surplus can't be retained in reserve funds, or used to retire other indebtedness except through convoluted accounting games. Prop 13 creates a use it or lose it situation that hamstrings sound management.

No, that's not the problem at all. The solution to CA's problems is to cut back on entitlements.

When you actually live here and aren't wet behind the ears lapping up propaganda, then come talk to me. Believe it or not, despite what you read out there in redstateville, we don't have state funded taco carts giving free meals to the hordes of wetbacks lining up for free no-questions-asked 50k a year lifetime welfare benefits.

I'm sure what will eventually happen is that CA will revert to territorial status after the Feds bail them out.

Why is it when I read your posts, I hear Rod Serling's voice in my head?

[MichaeltheGreat]

So, California's in trouble because housing is and always was overpriced and underfinanced? How are those beautiful views MtG keeps bragging about workin' out fer ya? Not very well.

Driven by demand from people from your neck of the woods tired of looking at five thousand cow asses out their front yard. It's called "supply and demand."

Now that some of our "red state refugees" are "self-deporting" we should see some normalization of housing costs.

And it's working just fine. Typical San Diego winter weekend - girls in bikinis on the beach. Typical Texas year 'round: Dead armadillos and cow patties on the road.

[MichaeltheGreat]

http://www.utsandiego.com/documents/...fornia-stacks/

They also say that 4 percent of California is on welfare (contrary to what you stated).

I guess we're done here.

The Manchester Union Tribune is so far off-base that if it states the sun rises in the east, I'd independently verify it.

Doug Manchester is a sleazy piece of **** (Mr. pious Catholic good Christian notorious for stiffing contractors in his real estate development days.)

Years ago, he speculatively bought a bunch of land on the west end of NAS Miramar, then when the Navy wanted to transition the base to the Marines, he started proposing the NAS Miramar airfield as the new replacement for Lindbergh field, while funding bogus proxy "concerned citizen" groups to go all around the area spreading complete misinformation and lies about the USMC and their proposed operations. Of course, he also lied about his connection to those groups. Great patriot there. Nothing his groups ever claimed against the USMC came to pass, MCAS Miramar has been a great success and economic boon to San Diego, but he wasted a lot of time and taxpayer money.

Before his foray into the "newspaper" (now pretty much a propaganda broadsheet) business, Manchester had a reputation for lack of ethics or integrity. San Diego UT has always been Republican (former editor in chief Herb Klein was a major speechwriter for Nixon), but it did have a reputation back in the day for journalisitc integrity, regardless of the editorial slant. That's totally gone now, so anything you quote from there -even the weather, is pretty much certain to have a slant and selective reporting of data, or else it wouldn't be allowed in. The only thing good in the paper now is the comics section.